I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
As you say ECM doesn't agree with it, the gfs 0z I feel will change back.
Quite amazing to be saying something like this!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


Doesn't really follow the ensembles for the 14th.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel2401.html

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
As you say ECM doesn't agree with it, the gfs 0z I feel will change back.
Quite amazing to be saying something like this!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

It's the 12z Paul is linking too.
It's a bit of an outlier but not totally unsupported albeit 4 or 5 runs.
Interesting times...
Joe


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The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.

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Sorry folks but the GFS has just spotted a new trend.






"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
As you say ECM doesn't agree with it, the gfs 0z I feel will change back.
Quite amazing to be saying something like this!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Dawlish wrote:

I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


I presume you mean 12z GFS unless you have a time machine.

That run is all based around an insanely intense storm spinning off the east
coast of Canada. Looks very unlikely to me and without that the rest wont
happen.


--
Brian Wakem

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
Sorry folks but the GFS has just spotted a new trend.


Oh God, I hope so. This weather is getting as interminable as the gloom
of an Azores High.

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk (Snowy and bloody freezing)

On Jan 4, 8:38*pm, Brian Wakem wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

I presume you mean 12z GFS unless you have a time machine.

That run is all based around an insanely intense storm spinning off the east
coast of Canada. *Looks very unlikely to me and without that the rest wont
happen.

--
Brian Wakem

I just realised I put 18z in the title. Sorry, Gallifrey-R-us! Keith,
as you say, it is amazing to be saying what you did, however, TY Joe.
Now seen the ens. There is always hope! (Hang on, isn't that what the
coldies say every winter when 4/5 members support an easterly at
T300?? Interesting times!)

On Mon, 04 Jan 2010 20:45:03 +0000, Chris Smith wrote:

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
Sorry folks but the GFS has just spotted a new trend.


Oh God, I hope so. This weather is getting as interminable as the gloom
of an Azores High.

You want to take a trip out west! Max +1.4°C here in wall-to-wall
sunshine, completely dry underfoot, and feeling surprisingly mild this
afternoon (at least if you were wrapped up). Mind you, given the short-
term forecast for this region you may have missed your chance...

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

In article ,
"Joe Whyte (JCW)" writes:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
I wish!

Must be an atrocious warm outlier from T200 onwards and completely
different from the ECM at T240. I was going to extend my 10-day-in-
advance cold forecast further out to mid-January this evening, then
the gfs throws this out! Ah well, back to watching.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png


http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
As you say ECM doesn't agree with it, the gfs 0z I feel will change back.
Quite amazing to be saying something like this!


It's the 12z Paul is linking too.
It's a bit of an outlier but not totally unsupported albeit 4 or 5 runs.
Interesting times...

I've already remarked on it in another thread, though the ensemble
wasn't available to me. I haven't checked the ECMWF ensemble, but the
"mittel" chart towards day 8 or 10 gives the wind over the UK more of a
SEly fetch, suggesting that some members could be going the same way as
the GFS operational run.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)