i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

In article
,
Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather.

The 00Z GFS ensemble was rather tantalising, with the Control run
(though not of course the Operational or most ensemble members) showing
a return to prolonged deep cold.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Jan 12, 10:52*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather.

Though that's my point :-) I wasn't saying it was going to be wet,
it's the end of the cold that I was commenting on. Dry mildness is
almost as bad as wet mildness at this time of year, both are equally
bereft of aesthetic appeal....

Nick

On Jan 12, 1:22*pm, Nick wrote:
On Jan 12, 10:52*am, John Hall wrote:





In article
,

*Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather..

Though that's my point :-) I wasn't saying it was going to be wet,
it's the end of the cold that I was commenting on. Dry mildness is
almost as bad as wet mildness at this time of year, both are equally
bereft of aesthetic appeal....

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Ah! You should be on the beach in the morning at Holcombe just after
sunrise in a gentle, dry south-westerly with 12C in January/February.
The light is fantastic, the red rocks of the sea wall are already
warming and the whole scene beckons spring! Lovely! :-)

On Jan 12, 1:22*pm, Nick wrote:
On Jan 12, 10:52*am, John Hall wrote:





In article
,

*Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather..

Though that's my point :-) I wasn't saying it was going to be wet,
it's the end of the cold that I was commenting on. Dry mildness is
almost as bad as wet mildness at this time of year, both are equally
bereft of aesthetic appeal....

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Quite so. The cold featureless leaden sky and the mucky tired-
looking snow fair uplift my spirits, they do. Sunshine? Errgh!
Yuk! That's Girls' Weather!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Jan 12, 4:11*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jan 12, 1:22*pm, Nick wrote:



On Jan 12, 10:52*am, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather.

Though that's my point :-) I wasn't saying it was going to be wet,
it's the end of the cold that I was commenting on. Dry mildness is
almost as bad as wet mildness at this time of year, both are equally
bereft of aesthetic appeal....

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* *Quite so. *The cold featureless leaden sky and the mucky tired-
looking snow fair uplift my spirits, they do. *Sunshine? *Errgh!
Yuk! *That's Girls' Weather!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Fair point, but I suppose I just like things to be seasonable.
Premature mildness in January with the sun still going down very early
just seems "unnatural" and makes the real spring when it arrives (and
I always think about a month from now is the time when it "should"
arrive, as the flowers start coming out and the evenings are light
enough to enjoy it properly then) less special. And no, I'm definitely
*not* wishing for a cold/dull/wet March...

Nick

In article
,
Nick writes:
On Jan 12, 10:52*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Nick writes:
i.e 18Z GFS, 00Z ECM and 00Z GFS seem to be worryingly in agreement
about the northern jet stream becoming permanently active a week from
now - and in the shorter term, all three models want to push the
trough northwards tomorrow, with westerlies from Wed to Sun. So is the
longer term return to cold(ish) still on?

Nick

No sign of it on the 06Z GFS operational run, which is going for a
single, and exceptionally intense, polar vortex in the region of
Greenland. In the SE of the UK, in particular, it looks like there
should be a lot of dry, and perhaps at times quite spring-like, weather.

Though that's my point :-) I wasn't saying it was going to be wet,
it's the end of the cold that I was commenting on. Dry mildness is
almost as bad as wet mildness at this time of year, both are equally
bereft of aesthetic appeal....

I find that not being rained on has quite a lot of appeal.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In article
,
Dawlish writes:

.....and this morning's runs show something different - a possible re-
load of the easterlies. The gfs in particular seems to have cold ideas
in mind as soon as next wednesday, with a snowy easterly, but the ECM
holds fire on that one, but still shows a build of pressure from the
east. Out at 10 days, the gfs is still hanging on to the southerlies,
but the ECM is now leading on easterly re-establishment. As usual,
consistency and agreement for the cold (or mild) needed before any
forecast at T+240.

The 06Z GFS operational run, now out, in general seems to show good
consistency with the 00Z, again restoring an easterly by Tuesday or so
next week, and with that second polar vortex well to the east developing
once more.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In article ,
Jon O'Rourke writes:
"John Hall" wrote in message news:Y0HonCBJYc
...

Are those surface temps? It doesn't seem to be made clear. I'd assumed
at first that they must be 850mb temps, and thought "That looks pretty
mild".

John, EC normally provide two different types of ENS plots. Meteograms
with 2m temperatures and 850hPa EPS plumes. In this case it's the
former. 2m temperatures are very useful but can a bit a little
misleading at times in terms of assessing how cold the air is in depth.
A cold boundary layer due to a week of freezing fog (heaven forbid) for
example would give a sequence of low temperatures but wouldn't
necessarily indicate there's cold air in depth present.


Thanks.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Meteogroup are now producing ECM ens (and on the same graph as gfs ens
too) - the red and blue lines are the two operational runs,
respectively. Very useful!

I take it the "latest" is last nights 00Z, but I can't see where it
says that (help!). Lots of agreement for a cool-down next week, less
for a longer term "freezer" scenario. The ECM operational is a cold
outlier after 8 days (21st).

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

One surprising thing that I've just noticed, the GFS and ECM operational
runs at 00Z on the 13th differ by 5C in their forecast of the London
temperature at midnight tonight, ie at only 24 hours range. The GFS was
going for +2C and the ECM for -3C. I suppose they had differing opinions
about the amount of cloud cover, though -3C in London tonight strikes me
as over-egging it even if the cloud cleared.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)