The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

I don't see the really cold air coming from any direction for any
length of time over the next 10 days. The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd), but slowly, as
temperatures over the next 10 days will be generally below average
more times than we have milder weather and January will end up a cold
month overall.

It'll be colder this week for a few days with a short-lived easterly
before turning milder, then there will be a northerly for a few days,
but without a particularly cold source, it won't produce a great deal
more than upland snow. (Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!).
Then we have the return to pretty average temperatures at the start of
February.

That's my take on it! *))

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Can't disagree with your forecast, though the ECM operational run is
hinting at the possibility of another northerly setting in just after
the end of its run. (And as I've mentioned elsewhere, the 12Z GFS
ensemble is tantalisingly hinting at the possibility of something cold
beginning some 14 days out.)
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Can't disagree with your forecast, though the ECM operational run is
hinting at the possibility of another northerly setting in just after
the end of its run. (And as I've mentioned elsewhere, the 12Z GFS
ensemble is tantalisingly hinting at the possibility of something cold
beginning some 14 days out.)
--

UKMO the most consistent model so far seems reluctant to sink the high south
and indeed at T+144 on 29th Jan has 520 DAM air advecting SSW into eastern
England raising the possibility of widespread lowland snow in the east.

That ECM run looks to be in transition with its twin vortices west and east
of Greenland. Possibly the beginnings of a northern block?

Will
--

On Jan 23, 9:19*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...



In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Can't disagree with your forecast, though the ECM operational run is
hinting at the possibility of another northerly setting in just after
the end of its run. (And as I've mentioned elsewhere, the 12Z GFS
ensemble is tantalisingly hinting at the possibility of something cold
beginning some 14 days out.)
--

UKMO the most consistent model so far seems reluctant to sink the high south
and indeed at T+144 on 29th Jan has 520 DAM air advecting SSW into eastern
England raising the possibility of widespread lowland snow in the east.

I'm slightly puzzled at the UKMO 6-15 forecast for the last 3 or 4
days of this month which suggests "average" temperatures, changeable
weather, and snow "in upland areas", which would suggest to me some
sort of zonal westerly, albeit not an especially mild one. It's
particularly puzzling as none of the models seem to currently suggest
quite that - some go for northerlies, others go for perhaps mild but
anticyclonic northwesterlies (so dry).

Nick

On 2010-01-23 21:19:52 +0000, "Will Hand" said:

That ECM run looks to be in transition with its twin vortices west and
east of Greenland. Possibly the beginnings of a northern block?

I've seen that (vortex, vortices) a few times, and I've often wondered
what it really means. I know in general terms what a vortex is, but
what does it mean specifically here, and why does it seem to be
associated with very cold weather

--

Trevor
Recoverin in Lundie, near Dundee
http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/

"John Hall" wrote :
In article Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Yes ... the house-style in Royal Met Soc journals is
°C for actual temperature values and degC for
temperature differences. It's sensible to differentiate
between the two, although trying to explain this to
newspaper sub-editors quickly meets with eyes
glazing over.

pe

what a load of ****ing bollox.


Dawlish wrote:
The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

I don't see the really cold air coming from any direction for any
length of time over the next 10 days. The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd), but slowly, as
temperatures over the next 10 days will be generally below average
more times than we have milder weather and January will end up a cold
month overall.

It'll be colder this week for a few days with a short-lived easterly
before turning milder, then there will be a northerly for a few days,
but without a particularly cold source, it won't produce a great deal
more than upland snow. (Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!).
Then we have the return to pretty average temperatures at the start of
February.

That's my take on it! *))

On Jan 23, 10:19*pm, Terry Tibbs wrote:
what a load of ****ing bollox

Terry, STFU

"fred" wrote in message
...
On Jan 23, 10:19 pm, Terry Tibbs wrote:
what a load of ****ing bollox

Terry, STFU

Terry is right its just model gibberish from Paul

In article ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:

"fred" wrote in message
...
On Jan 23, 10:19 pm, Terry Tibbs wrote:
what a load of ****ing bollox

Terry, STFU

Terry is right its just model gibberish from Paul



He's entitled to his opinion, but he doesn't need to say the same thing
over and over again, with no constructive comment added. We've all got
the message by now.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)