Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

On Jan 26, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:
Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

On Jan 26, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 26, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:





Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

On 26 Jan, 10:40, Alan wrote:
On Jan 26, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 26, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier * this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This is about the third run gfs has hinted this now, although this one
goes even further down the cold road, so whats changed in the model?

Keith (Southend)

On Jan 26, 10:58*am, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 26 Jan, 10:40, Alan wrote:





On Jan 26, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days.. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier * this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png-Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This is about the third run gfs has hinted this now, although this one
goes even further down the cold road, so whats changed in the model?

Keith (Southend)

There's certainly a stonger Jet pointing at Greenland, but my dynamic
meteorology has long since eluded me so I pass!

On Jan 26, 10:40*am, Alan wrote:
On Jan 26, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 26, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier * this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

True Alan, though it puts the pattern back a few days and leaves us
under high pressure at T240, with the coldest air missing us to the
SE. It's further away friom being sorted after that run and I don't
think it was that close after the 00z!

You've got to wonder if the models are picking up on the SSW Keith.
However, it doesn't look in any way extreme; definitely not as extreme
as the Jan '09 event, so the effects of the event on the lower
troposphere are a long way from certain. It also looks to have reached
it's very well forecast peak.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cg...=temps&alert=1

The other possiblity may be the effects of the El Nino on late winter
conditions in NW Europe, (recent research from Adam Scaife et al at
the Hadley Centre), but the truth is it isn't yet possible to isolate
those effects and attribute their influence with any certainty to our
weather. No sense in dismissing either possibility, however.

It would be easy to think that our cold would be being replicated
around the world, but that doesn't appear to be the case. UAH to the
24th shows January, globally, may well turn out to be very warm, as
months globally almost always are these days. (tick all the year boxes
to get a better sense of how warm January has been).

On Jan 26, 10:58*am, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 26 Jan, 10:40, Alan wrote:





On Jan 26, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days.. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier * this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png-Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This is about the third run gfs has hinted this now, although this one
goes even further down the cold road, so whats changed in the model?

Keith (Southend)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM has a full-blown easterly. It looks awfully possible that
could be our weather in 10 days! Brrrrr.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 26, 10:58 am, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 26 Jan, 10:40, Alan wrote:





On Jan 26, 9:36 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:13 am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a
similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it
up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days.
I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is
an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards
the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png-Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This is about the third run gfs has hinted this now, although this one
goes even further down the cold road, so whats changed in the model?

Keith (Southend)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM has a full-blown easterly. It looks awfully possible that
could be our weather in 10 days! Brrrrr.
============

Long long way off at 10 days Paul, but it does fit in with dynamics, El
Nino, stratwarm and first principles etc.
Sheesh we have a northerly to deal with first as well.

Will
--

On Jan 26, 7:15*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jan 26, 10:58 am, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:





On 26 Jan, 10:40, Alan wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:36 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:13 am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a
similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it
up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days.
I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is
an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards
the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png-Hidequoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This is about the third run gfs has hinted this now, although this one
goes even further down the cold road, so whats changed in the model?

Keith (Southend)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM has a full-blown easterly. It looks awfully possible that
could be our weather in 10 days! Brrrrr.
============

Long long way off at 10 days Paul, but it does fit in with dynamics, El
Nino, stratwarm and first principles etc.
Sheesh we have a northerly to deal with first as well.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

10 days is always a long time Will, you are absolutely right! *))

gfs keeps the easterly solution, as does GEM, but just as it was
looking probable, the ECM 00z decides not to play snowball. I'm of a
mind that the ECM will prove a warm outlier, but the gfs 00z is
certainly a cold one:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Yesterday's freezing 12z ECM was on the cold edge of the ensembles,
whereas yesterday's more conservative 12z gfs was very close to the
ensemble mean.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

I think it will turn colder with maybe a turn to the east, I don't
have much confidence in what the 00z ECM is showing this morning, but
perhaps it won't be as cold as the gfs operational is suggesting. "Not
sorted" would be my take on the deep cold.

On Jan 27, 8:51*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 26, 7:15*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Jan 26, 10:58 am, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 26 Jan, 10:40, Alan wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:36 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 26, 9:13 am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a
similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it
up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days.
I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is
an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards
the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/

Just struck me. If easterlies did set in around this time, it would
coincide pretty well with the Buchan cold spell. I chose the word
"coincidence" with care! *))

Indeed the GFS 06Z maintains this kind of scenario. Further more it
attempts to extend to a full Greenland block scenario not dissimilar
to the cold spell earlier this winter. Of course still in La La Land
at +276Z, and the ensembles still to come.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn27...Hidequotedtext -

- Show quoted text -

This is about the third run gfs has hinted this now, although this one
goes even further down the cold road, so whats changed in the model?

Keith (Southend)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM has a full-blown easterly. It looks awfully possible that
could be our weather in 10 days! Brrrrr.
============

Long long way off at 10 days Paul, but it does fit in with dynamics, El
Nino, stratwarm and first principles etc.
Sheesh we have a northerly to deal with first as well.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

10 days is always a long time Will, you are absolutely right! *))

gfs keeps the easterly solution, as does GEM, but just as it was
looking probable, the ECM 00z decides not to play snowball. I'm of a
mind that the ECM will prove a warm outlier, but the gfs 00z is
certainly a cold one:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Yesterday's freezing 12z ECM was on the cold edge of the ensembles,
whereas yesterday's more conservative 12z gfs was very close to the
ensemble mean.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

I think it will turn colder with maybe a turn to the east, I don't
have much confidence in what the 00z ECM is showing this morning, but
perhaps it won't be as cold as the gfs operational is suggesting. "Not
sorted" would be my take on the deep cold.

I never assume a deep cold solution is "sorted" until the deep cold is
making my front door rattle ;-)