00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

Both the ECM and GFS operational runs seem to be mild outliers from a
week or so out compared to their ensembles, which still seem to be keen
on an easterly. Both operational runs have more of a southeasterly,
though apart from that don't they greatly resemble each other. Of
course, it's always possible that, thanks to their greater resolution,
the operational runs have picked up on something that the ensembles are
yet to detect.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

In article ,
John Hall writes:
Both the ECM and GFS operational runs seem to be mild outliers from a
week or so out compared to their ensembles, which still seem to be keen
on an easterly. Both operational runs have more of a southeasterly,
though apart from that don't they greatly resemble each other. Of
course, it's always possible that, thanks to their greater resolution,
the operational runs have picked up on something that the ensembles are
yet to detect.

The 06Z GFS operational run is much colder than the 00Z, apart from a
couple of days at the very end of the run.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

On Jan 28, 9:33*am, John Hall wrote:
Both the ECM and GFS operational runs seem to be mild outliers from a
week or so out compared to their ensembles, which still seem to be keen
on an easterly. Both operational runs have more of a southeasterly,
though apart from that don't they greatly resemble each other. Of
course, it's always possible that, thanks to their greater resolution,
the operational runs have picked up on something that the ensembles are
yet to detect.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * "Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * *from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Panic and celebration from the coldies after the 06z gfs, I would
think, John. The easterlies take a little longer to develop and the
milder interlude around the 2nd/3rd is enhanced a little - the panic
bit, but then the celebrations would follow if what is being shown at
10-12 days happened (the rest of the country would just have to put up
with it!)!

You can probably guess the shape of the operational run's graph line
when the ensembles come out!

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Jan 28, 9:33*am, John Hall wrote:
Both the ECM and GFS operational runs seem to be mild outliers from a
week or so out compared to their ensembles, which still seem to be keen
on an easterly. Both operational runs have more of a southeasterly,
though apart from that don't they greatly resemble each other. Of
course, it's always possible that, thanks to their greater resolution,
the operational runs have picked up on something that the ensembles are
yet to detect.

Panic and celebration from the coldies after the 06z gfs, I would
think, John. The easterlies take a little longer to develop and the
milder interlude around the 2nd/3rd is enhanced a little - the panic
bit, but then the celebrations would follow if what is being shown at
10-12 days happened (the rest of the country would just have to put up
with it!)!

Yep. It's interesting that the milder interlude has been restored to
pretty much what it was when the GFS first picked up on the subsequent
easterly, after a day or two's runs where it had almost vanished.

You can probably guess the shape of the operational run's graph line
when the ensembles come out!

Indeed. But the GFS ensemble mean may not look than much milder than the
operational run this time round, going by how cold the 00Z ensemble was.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

The 06Z GFS operational may have been cold, but the ensembles look
much milder than previously. Fewer signs of height rises over
Greenland, more signs of a slow sink into southeast Europe as the
Atlantic gets going again.

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

On Jan 28, 11:19*am, RK wrote:
The 06Z GFS operational may have been cold, but the ensembles look
much milder than previously. Fewer signs of height rises over
Greenland, more signs of a slow sink into southeast Europe as the
Atlantic gets going again.

Certainly warmer than the 00Z GFS ensembles, but the basic pattern
still looks the same.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m11.html

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

On Jan 28, 12:06*pm, Alan wrote:
On Jan 28, 11:19*am, RK wrote:

The 06Z GFS operational may have been cold, but the ensembles look
much milder than previously. Fewer signs of height rises over
Greenland, more signs of a slow sink into southeast Europe as the
Atlantic gets going again.

Certainly warmer than the 00Z GFS ensembles, but the basic pattern
still looks the same.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m11.html

Just another thought, IF[and that's a big if] a cold pool does descend
upon us in 8-10 days time, is it likely this would ever been shown on
an ensemble 8-10 days out. In fact I can't remember a time I've seen
an ensemble showing 850MB temperature at less than -10C past 5 days?
What I'm asking if this event does occur what is the probability an
ensemble would actually show it 8-10 days out?

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

On Jan 28, 12:06*pm, Alan wrote:
On Jan 28, 11:19*am, RK wrote:

The 06Z GFS operational may have been cold, but the ensembles look
much milder than previously. Fewer signs of height rises over
Greenland, more signs of a slow sink into southeast Europe as the
Atlantic gets going again.

Certainly warmer than the 00Z GFS ensembles, but the basic pattern
still looks the same.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m11.html

the SSPs look interesting. I wonder if I can come up with anything of
SSI. I bet I can.

The Baltic Low and the Azores High are pretty positive. But separated
by a landmass the size of stupidville WHN is open to interpretation.
Lows on the left pull cold air down

Highs on the right pull cold air up. With a lot of mixing or not as
the case may be. I can't see the physics in it at all well.

Lows on the left pull warm air down? Is that it?

00Z 28/01 model runs - Don't Panic!
 

In article
,
Alan writes:
On Jan 28, 12:06*pm, Alan wrote:
On Jan 28, 11:19*am, RK wrote:

The 06Z GFS operational may have been cold, but the ensembles look
much milder than previously. Fewer signs of height rises over
Greenland, more signs of a slow sink into southeast Europe as the
Atlantic gets going again.

Certainly warmer than the 00Z GFS ensembles, but the basic pattern
still looks the same.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m11.html

Just another thought, IF[and that's a big if] a cold pool does descend
upon us in 8-10 days time, is it likely this would ever been shown on
an ensemble 8-10 days out. In fact I can't remember a time I've seen
an ensemble showing 850MB temperature at less than -10C past 5 days?
What I'm asking if this event does occur what is the probability an
ensemble would actually show it 8-10 days out?

I'm not sure if the GFS ensemble quite got below -10C 8-10 days ahead of
the coldest weather in early January, but if it didn't it was very close
to it IIRC.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)