GFS 18z run
 

Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.
Sigh.
Dave

GFS 18z run
 

computer says no (ukmo)
lets hope it changes back.


Dave Cornwell wrote:
Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.
Sigh.
Dave

GFS 18z run
 

On 29 Jan, 23:01, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of *the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.
Sigh.
Dave

Indeed, Dave. I think it is nearly a week now that the models have
been hinting at a sub-zero spell - but it is always 6 to 9 days away.
These models dither more than politicians.

GFS 18z run
 

On Jan 29, 11:01*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of *the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.
Sigh.
Dave

That's a typical T240+ pattern, Dave, for sure, however, I can't agree
with what you said here; "*None* have even vaguely happened in the
predicted way". There have been two examples of where consistency and
agreement has pointed almost exactly to the outcome at 10 days, since
the start of January and I've documented them clearly on here. Most of
the time at 10 days+, I agree, it has been spaghetti and confusion (a
well known ensemble dish!).

GFS 18z run
 

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.

Remember that the UKMO model only forecasts out to 8 days, whereas many
of the runs of the other two models show the easterly only beginning
after 9 or 10 days. Having said that, UKNO does seem to be alone in
having a vigorous SWly after 7-8 days.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

GFS 18z run
 

"John Hall" wrote ...

Remember that the UKMO model only forecasts out to 8 days, whereas
many
of the runs of the other two models show the easterly only beginning
after 9 or 10 days. Having said that, UKNO does seem to be alone in
having a vigorous SWly after 7-8 days.

.... this is the second time I've seen this in the past few days: where
are you getting UKMO (i.e. Global Model), beyond T+144 / 6 days from?

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

GFS 18z run
 

In article ,
Martin Rowley writes:
"John Hall" wrote ...

Remember that the UKMO model only forecasts out to 8 days, whereas
many
of the runs of the other two models show the easterly only beginning
after 9 or 10 days. Having said that, UKNO does seem to be alone in
having a vigorous SWly after 7-8 days.

... this is the second time I've seen this in the past few days: where
are you getting UKMO (i.e. Global Model), beyond T+144 / 6 days from?

Martin.


Sorry, Martin. A mental aberration on my part. Please subtract 2 days
from all the UKMO references.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)