This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has
turned out to be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the
models had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out.
But what happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising
the wet-bulb freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold
rain/sleet instead of snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and
this happens there is no place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen,
spent more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in
the lowest layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the
upper trough comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m
wet-bulb freezing levels that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and
I will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult
situations. Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as
wrong but then it is easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will

Will - I know sod all about the atmosphere compared to you but I went
for snow too based on years of synoptic watching and gut feeling. It was
very borderline. There was RASN in that rain but it didnt quite come
off. Best be prepared I say and leave the likes of us disappointed, than
a 'surprise' dump of snow make us all feel like idiots.

Mind now whats going to happen in the next 48 hours! I'll shake the
glass bowl up with snow in this time.

Phil

--
Guildford, Surrey

www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

dont worry will.

CF forecast on sunday was still forecasting snow in london on sunday and
local forecasts on monday

like you said , just 1c.

PS lowland southerners might get the turn again this weekened/monday?



Will Hand wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has
turned out to be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the
models had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out.
But what happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising
the wet-bulb freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold
rain/sleet instead of snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and
this happens there is no place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen,
spent more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in
the lowest layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the
upper trough comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m
wet-bulb freezing levels that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and
I will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult
situations. Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as
wrong but then it is easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will

On Feb 17, 9:23*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations..
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

Well said. It's just the way it goes. welcome to the club. *))

This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out
to be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the
wet-bulb freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet
instead of snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens
there is no place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the
lowest layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper
trough comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb
freezing levels that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it
is easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will,

I know you went for it and it was a very difficult situation, one many would
not have even attempted, so good on you for that!
I will always be looking out for your forecasts with interest, despite my
moans and groans
It's just bugged me this Winter being the coldest for 30 years and at my
altitude I really thought I would have had at least one heavy fall by now!
The biggest fall of just 6 cms in January is much lower than we get in most
mild winters!
What was more depressing was your snowy forecast, coupled with the fact
Philip mentioned last weekend this being a similar situation to 1968 when we
had shed loads of the stuff
I really thought we would get a big one this week but so far zilch!
Temperature really struggled today too, around 1.1c at best but ppn was just
too light.
The temperature has started falling in the last hour around 0.2c now and
with light to moderate snow falling it's finally settling.
I think for this area it's been one of those Winter's where we've just
missed out on the heavy snow as I sure we will tomorrow, although it won't
be too far away I suspect.
Anyway keep up the good work! You get far more right than you get wrong,
already looking forward to you next one

Graham

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 9:23 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out
to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the
wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead
of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is
no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the
lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing
levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it
is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

Well said. It's just the way it goes. welcome to the club. *))

Yet Joe B got a remarkable double and you don't have a good word to say
about him.

By the way just postd in the Glenn Beck show commercial break

Will,

I think your forecast was excellent, I just assumed you had made a
typing error with the date, have you seen the latest for Monday 22nd
from the GFS?

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...59ff6e9 4f59a
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...96e4520 f585a

On 17 Feb, 21:23, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

No worries Will, always enjoy your forecasts, even on the rare
occasion when it goes wrong.

On Feb 17, 9:23*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations..
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

Never mind Will.
You kept everyone entertained on this ng,
At 10 days the track of a depression is always a bit ifish to a few
hundred km.
I seem to remember Darren saying that the depression would drag in
some warmer air.
So congrats to him.
But, as you indirectly point out, although it is a big depression, it
cannot displace the cold continental air while it is on its present
track.
It just gives a little bite.
So many will still see snow. Using the word 'widespread' though is
very dodgy.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 9:23 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out
to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the
wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead
of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is
no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the
lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing
levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it
is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

You should worry - I got everyone to call off their golf today ,on the best
day of the winter in these parts!
It is very frustrating though that it always seems to go 1-2C warmer than
expected, never the other way. I don't know why they don't do all the clever
stuff then add one degree for luck!
Dave