I see Joe is attempting to analyse the reasons for the recent winters
events ,a lot of which is characteristically inpenetrable.
I wonder whether Will would like to summarise the lead up and subsequent
developments of this unusually blocked scenario in English. he was the first
to pick up on how things were shaping up on this side of the pond in
November,based on events occuring around the polar regions though I doubt
whether he factored in polar volcanoes !.
I know the sceptics on here,say it is impossible to forecast more than a few
days ahead ,which of course is true with great accuracy ,but both Joe and
Will did point up some interesting trends way ahead of the actual events, so
there must be some merit in exploring their thinking and methodology
(American word)

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

RonB

On Mar 18, 11:51*am, "ronaldbutton" wrote:
* I see Joe is attempting to analyse the reasons for the recent winters
events ,a lot of which is characteristically inpenetrable.
I wonder whether Will would like to summarise the lead up and subsequent
developments of this unusually blocked scenario in English. he was the first
to pick up on how things were shaping up on this side of the pond *in
November,based on events occuring around the polar regions though I doubt
whether he factored in polar volcanoes !.
I know the sceptics on here,say it is impossible to forecast more than a few
days ahead ,which of course is true with great accuracy ,but both Joe and
Will did point up some interesting trends way ahead of the actual events, so
there must be some merit in exploring their thinking and methodology
(American word)

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu....

RonB

This is just idiotic, but thanks for posting it Ron. Retrospective
"Science" like this just needs to be dismantled for the rubbish that
it is. I'll take each of Joe's "reasons" in turn, then return to the
reason Joe actually gave when making his cold forecast. Joe gave
*none* of the following 4 reasons for why the winter was going to be
cold *before* the winter itself.

THE 4 HORSEMAN OF THE WINTER APOCALYPSE: WHY IT GOT SO COLD

1) Oceans. We had a great set up with the atlantic tripole and its
warm, cold warm look from north to south. In addition the turning of
the PDO to cold put it right away into the category I was looking at
for this winter.. which was similar to the central Pacific based nino
of 02-03.

*The oceans have been around their warmest ever. Especially the
Pacific, due to the continuing El Nino. The PDO was positive ("warm",
not negative, "cold" in both December and in January (Feb still to
come)

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

2)Trend of the global temp. There is a saying, the trend is my friend.
I think the flattening of the global temp has something to do with
this as it sends a different background signal to the overall pattern
and may be responsible for some of the stochastic noise that influence
the weather( roughly random and unpredictable occurrences that are
many times the result of the predictable... this is butterfly and
chaos theory to some extent.

*The global trend right the way through this winter (and for the last
12 months), is for Global temperatures to conntinue at their warmest
ever. To say the trend has been flat and this has somehow influenced
the weather in some areas only in the Northern hemisphere is just head-
shakingly silly.

3) The sun. While spaceweather.com is making alot of noise about
sunspots going off, the sunspot number is woefully low as while they
are showing up, they are not numerous nor strong. The prolonged solar
min may be having some effect.

*Perhaps the really daft part of Joe's reasoning. we have a low solar
minimum, and have had for almost 3 years now. Unfortunately that has
influenced global temperatures so much that it has produced no cooling
whatsoever. Could the prolonged solar minimum only have an effect on
one small part of the world and not on most of the rest, therefore not
on global temperatures? No. This is just junk. Spaceweather has done
no such thing as Joe is implying.

4) My personal favorite, the volcanic activity in the arctic. This is
little researched, but the amount of blocking this year, and indeed
its something that is not easy to get rid of because of WHERE the
volcanoes in the arctic shoot their ash, is something that would have
to be included as a possible cause. The combination of the blocking
foretold by the negative AAO in our summer last year and the extra
help given here lead to a very strong blocking look. However the
downside of that, and the reason for the Jan thaw and the current
warmth, is everytime the trough shifted north into Alaska warmth
spread into the US. It could have been worse, if the el nino had not
gotten as strong, but the theory that this would come and go is being
echoed strongly in the models now as they are quickly collapsing
this.

*That's right Joe, pick on something where monitoring may be less,
therefore it could be a reason! Amazing. Also, the El Nino has
persisted longer than the models were anticipating, even in December.
Joe, however is correct, it will almost certainly fade. Every single
person with any knowledge of ENSO understands that. If the state of
the AAO can foretell the winter weather in the northern hemisphere,
why was Joe's last 4 USA winter forecasts all completely wrong?

Now before the acolytes and the cold brigade start, please argue your
case to support the points that Joe makes. Saying that I (or anyone
else) somehow don't like him won't cut any mustard here. The 4 reasons
he's given show an incredible and quite worrying degree of either
deliberate misunderstanding, or outright untruths. If they don't -
provided the evidence for them not being. I just don't like junk
climate science.

Finally, can you remember what the actual reason Joe gave for his cold
forecast ?? Nope? Because, oddly, he hasn't referred to it here and no
wonder. The reason he gave back in October, was that the El Nino would
"collapse" before Christmas. It didn't. The reason for his cold
forecast was wrong and the forecast - sorry to say this Joe fans - was
a hopecast; no better than a guess, based on a wrong premise, but he
knew it would be remembered if the guess proved correct.

PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

And this is the Joe B that holds Will's best friend, ol' Piers Corbyn in
some high regard. And Joe B thinks that CO2 has no or minimal effect because
it is a 'trace' gas. What opinionated ignorance.

Talking of PC, I was sent a copy of his March forecast made last February
and he was predicting the 'Worst possible' March, cold, windy and wet and a
short 5-day warm or even 'hot spell' which will bring forth bounteous
(poetic isn't he) spring shoots but these will be 'zapped' by punishing cold
and wintery showers.

Well, given that today was the first rain to fall this month and sunshine at
near record levels, plus fairly warm temperatures this last week (I know I
am not referring to the whole of the UK but can Piers' forecast be applied
to anywhere in the British Isles). I suspect he will undoubtedly claim
success again.
_____________________
Nick
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On 18/03/10 11:51, ronaldbutton wrote:
I see Joe is attempting to analyse the reasons for the recent winters
events ,a lot of which is characteristically inpenetrable.
I wonder whether Will would like to summarise the lead up and subsequent
developments of this unusually blocked scenario in English. he was the first
to pick up on how things were shaping up on this side of the pond in
November,based on events occuring around the polar regions though I doubt
whether he factored in polar volcanoes !.
I know the sceptics on here,say it is impossible to forecast more than a few
days ahead ,which of course is true with great accuracy ,but both Joe and
Will did point up some interesting trends way ahead of the actual events, so
there must be some merit in exploring their thinking and methodology
(American word)

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

RonB



I still stick to the change in North Atlantic SST anomalies towards the
end of November. I warned then that if the cold pool to the south of the
Grand Banks continued to intensify we could be in for a cold, easterly
winter. Towards the end of November, the forecast pressure pattern from
Netweather derived from SST anomalies also made the same prediction,
including a southward shift of the jet stream. This science has worked
for over forty years so why bother inventing some other cause?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.

Doing a little research on NOAA's site, I found a map for December of
anomalies for each state. That showed that the NE was around average but
everywhere else cold, with the mid-West exceptionally cold. That's
closer to what you said than to what I'd thought. Unfortunately there
don't yet seem to be similar maps for January or February, and it's
quite possible that there could have been huge swings from month to
month.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Mar 19, 8:07*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,*Dawlis h writes:

snip

PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

The central areas of the US were not milder. The "division" was north-
south, though the west coast was much less affected. Canada had its
warmest and driest winter on record, as noted elsewhe

http://www.smrcinfo.com/index.php?op...61&Itemid=9999

Joe is worse than idiotic.

On Mar 19, 8:37*am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*John Hall writes:





In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.

Doing a little research on NOAA's site, I found a map for December of
anomalies for each state. That showed that the NE was around average but
everywhere else cold, with the mid-West exceptionally cold. That's
closer to what you said than to what I'd thought. Unfortunately there
don't yet seem to be similar maps for January or February, and it's
quite possible that there could have been huge swings from month to
month.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Refer to my post just above for the whole-season picture.

In article
,
RWood writes:
On Mar 19, 8:07*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,*
Dawlish writes:

snip

PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.

The central areas of the US were not milder. The "division" was north-
south, though the west coast was much less affected. Canada had its
warmest and driest winter on record, as noted elsewhe

http://www.smrcinfo.com/index.php?op...ht=500&width=1
00%&task=viewid&id=4961&Itemid=9999

Joe is worse than idiotic.

Thanks for the link. Well done the South Mississipi Regional Center for
getting the seasonal map up so quickly. It's interesting, though not
that surprising, that the area around Washington DC - which had so much
snow in January was not particularly cold when considering the winter as
a whole.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Mar 18, 7:37*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*John Hall writes:





In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.

I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.

Doing a little research on NOAA's site, I found a map for December of
anomalies for each state. That showed that the NE was around average but
everywhere else cold, with the mid-West exceptionally cold. That's
closer to what you said than to what I'd thought. Unfortunately there
don't yet seem to be similar maps for January or February, and it's
quite possible that there could have been huge swings from month to
month.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Try the National overview John. Look at the Jan and Feb figures for
the NE USA.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...d=Get+R eport

"Meanwhile, upper-level patterns contributed to warmer-than-average
temperatures in the Northwest and Northeast climate regions". Maine
actually had it's 3rd warmest winter period (Dec-Feb inc. on record).
Amazing eh?

5/5 USA forecasts incorrect. That fact makes Rupert's assessment of
Joe's ability absolutely correct. Joe guesses and hopes for cold to
bolster his reputation. Sometimes he is bound to be correct. *))