On 09/05/10 17:25, Dawlish wrote:
On May 9, 12:04 pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 09/05/10 10:11, Anne Burgess wrote:

Very early days of course, but assuming this May continues
with a cold
than average theme, out of 9 colder than average Mays I have
records
of since 1960 only 2 following summers were on the cool/wet
side, the
remaining 7 had at least one summer month with temperatures of
1°C+
above the norm. I would also be very surprised to get a third
bad
summer in a row.

Oh, I very much hope you are right.

But this year there's the volcanic ash, which has not been
present in recent decades. What effect could that have on summer
temperatures?

Anne
(Dodging a chill north-easterly breeze in Moray)

I don't think the ash has been high enough in the atmosphere to make a
difference. What bothers me though is that the cold SST anomaly south
of the Grand Banks, which I thought was weakening, has intensified
again. It has edged WSW which, with the shortening upper-air wavelengths
at this time of year, hints that instead of an anticyclonic NE-'ly we'll
be mostly stuck with cyclonic NE-'lies. Never mind, these SST-anomaly
effects are supposed to be less effective during the summer.


It'll be interesting to see if that proves the case. It's not what is
shown in the models currently, but I'd think this may have a longer
timescale that this - if it happens. *))

Oh, of course. These SST patterns are only providing ideas on average
pressure anomalies for the next month, say, so you could still get a
heatwave for a week and three weeks of cold and wet weather. Mind you, I
don't see much sign on the 12Z GFS of any relief from the cold.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
Take back Parliament: http://www.takebackparliament.com/

On May 9, 7:29*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 09/05/10 17:25, Dawlish wrote:



On May 9, 12:04 pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 09/05/10 10:11, Anne Burgess wrote:

Very early days of course, but assuming this May continues
with a cold
than average theme, out of 9 colder than average Mays I have
records
of since 1960 only 2 following summers were on the cool/wet
side, the
remaining 7 had at least one summer month with temperatures of
1°C+
above the norm. I would also be very surprised to get a third
bad
summer in a row.

Oh, I very much hope you are right.

But this year there's the volcanic ash, which has not been
present in recent decades. What effect could that have on summer
temperatures?

Anne
(Dodging a chill north-easterly breeze in Moray)

I don't think the ash has been high enough in the atmosphere to make a
difference. What bothers me though is that the cold SST anomaly south
of the Grand Banks, which I thought was weakening, has intensified
again. It has edged WSW which, with the shortening upper-air wavelengths
at this time of year, hints that instead of an anticyclonic NE-'ly we'll
be mostly stuck with cyclonic NE-'lies. Never mind, these SST-anomaly
effects are supposed to be less effective during the summer.

It'll be interesting to see if that proves the case. It's not what is
shown in the models currently, but I'd think this may have a longer
timescale that this - if it happens. *))

Oh, of course. These SST patterns are only providing ideas on average
pressure anomalies for the next month, say, so you could still get a
heatwave for a week and three weeks of cold and wet weather. Mind you, I
don't see much sign on the 12Z GFS of any relief from the cold.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
Take back Parliament:http://www.takebackparliament.com/

Thanks Graham for your input, I always find this aspect of the
circulation extremely interesting.

Keith (Southend)

Actually made double figures today Tx 10.5c.
Not bad for January!

Phil
Guildford

On May 8, 11:09*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
Today was my lowest May maximum temperature since 6th May 1997.
Today's maximum here at Southend-on-Sea was 9.8°C, 1997 was 8.5°C.
The lowest I've recorded was 8.0°C on both 27th May 1992 & 17th & 18th
May 1992.

Very early days of course, but assuming this May continues with a cold
than average theme, out of 9 colder than average Mays I have records
of since 1960 only 2 following summers were on the cool/wet side, the
remaining 7 had at least one summer month with temperatures of 1°C+
above the norm. I would also be very surprised to get a third bad
summer in a row.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Today's maximum was colder than the 8th with a maximum of 9.2°C

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather .net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On May 8, 11:11*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On May 8, 11:09*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

Today was my lowest May maximum temperature since 6th May 1997.
Today's maximum here at Southend-on-Sea was 9.8°C, 1997 was 8.5°C.
The lowest I've recorded was 8.0°C on both 27th May 1992 & 17th & 18th
May 1992.

Very early days of course, but assuming this May continues with a cold
than average theme, out of 9 colder than average Mays I have records
of since 1960 only 2 following summers were on the cool/wet side, the
remaining 7 had at least one summer month with temperatures of 1°C+
above the norm. I would also be very surprised to get a third bad
summer in a row.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

17th & 18th should have read 1996.

Max of only 10.2C here today. Lowest since 1st May 2001.

Here are others:
14th 2005 11.7C
7th 2002 11.9C
1st 2001 10.3C
7th 1997 11.0C

16th 1996 10.0C
17th 1996 9.0C
18th 1996 10.6C
19th 1996 8.5C


16th 1995 11.3C
20th 1994 11.6C
17th 1987 11.5C
9th 1986 10.7C

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m asl