Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Nick

Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

On 14/05/2010 16:50, Nick wrote:
Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!


Agreed.
The MetO outlook:
UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 May 2010 to Friday 28 May 2010:

During the first half of the period, the weather is expected to be
rather unsettled with variable cloud amounts and rain at times,
including the odd heavier burst. Bright or sunny intervals are also
likely however, the best of these in the south and east. During the
brighter periods, temperatures are anticipated to be warm, but closer to
normal for the time of year where more cloud and rain prevails. Beyond
the weekend, the unsettled theme continues, with rain or showers likely
in northern and eastern areas, the best of the brighter spells therefore
now in the southwest. With northerly or northeasterly winds, it is
anticipated that temperatures will gradually decrease relative to the
seasonal average, becoming rather cool everywhere by the end of the week.

Doesn't seem to reflect the dryness with High pressure the charts show...

Phil

Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

On Fri, 14 May 2010 08:50:39 -0700 (PDT), Nick
wrote:

Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

I am getting fed up with these northerlies as they funnel down the
vallley where I work. Until they back round more to the SW I will not
escape this effect.
There does not seem to be happening out there which rather accentuates
the Crunchy Hobbyhorse postings that just will not go away

R

Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

On May 14, 7:55*pm, Phil Layton wrote:
On 14/05/2010 16:50, Nick wrote: Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Agreed.
The MetO outlook:
UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 May 2010 to Friday 28 May 2010:

During the first half of the period, the weather is expected to be
rather unsettled with variable cloud amounts and rain at times,
including the odd heavier burst. Bright or sunny intervals are also
likely however, the best of these in the south and east. During the
brighter periods, temperatures are anticipated to be warm, but closer to
normal for the time of year where more cloud and rain prevails. Beyond
the weekend, the unsettled theme continues, with rain or showers likely
in northern and eastern areas, the best of the brighter spells therefore
now in the southwest. With northerly or northeasterly winds, it is
anticipated that temperatures will gradually decrease relative to the
seasonal average, becoming rather cool everywhere by the end of the week.

Doesn't seem to reflect the dryness with High pressure the charts show...

Phil

It must change at midday. I think the Met Office forecasters were
going more with the gfs than any other model (except for their own, of
course) when they came up with this forecast. The 6-15 day does not
now reflect what is likely to happen from Tuesday onwards. We're in
for a real taste of summer, more especially in the South, but I think
more northern areas will join in towards the weekend. The MetO will
catch up at sometime, I suppose.......*))

Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

On May 14, 4:50*pm, Nick wrote:
Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Nick

I can understand anyone's confusion with that 6-15 day forecast at the
moment. This lunchtime's MetO picture update hardly paints the picture
that the models are showing for later next week. Maybe they are hoping
the weather will stay cool and unsettled to bolster their present cool
and wet start to June prediction in the 15-30 day forecast? Good luck
to them, but there's a lot of very low probability stuff in that. The
gfs shows a cold plumge at 12 days, but would anyone care to forecast
that will happen? I would think that persistence from the Azores high
would be a likelier option at 10-14 days, but that would also really
be a low probability assessment. An element of how confident they are
in this forecast would be a big help. I gave a 75%+ confidence from 10
days out that we'd have a taste of summer from a movement of the
Azores high next Wednesday and I'm still happy with that.

Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

On May 15, 1:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 14, 4:50*pm, Nick wrote:

Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Nick

I can understand anyone's confusion with that 6-15 day forecast at the
moment. This lunchtime's MetO picture update hardly paints the picture
that the models are showing for later next week. Maybe they are hoping
the weather will stay cool and unsettled to bolster their present cool
and wet start to June prediction in the 15-30 day forecast? Good luck
to them, but there's a lot of very low probability stuff in that. The
gfs shows a cold plumge at 12 days, but would anyone care to forecast
that will happen? I would think that persistence from the Azores high
would be a likelier option at 10-14 days, but that would also really
be a low probability assessment. *An element of how confident they are
in this forecast would be a big help. I gave a 75%+ confidence from 10
days out that we'd have a taste of summer from a movement of the
Azores high next Wednesday and I'm still happy with that.

6-15 day forecast beginning to change to take into account the model
changes; the last week of May is now forecast to be fine and dry with
perhaps very warm temperatures locally. The old forecast will be eaten
by the forecast langoliers and quietly forgotten:

UK Outlook for Friday 21 May 2010 to Sunday 30 May 2010:

Initially northwestern areas will be rather cloudy with occasional
rain or drizzle, although elsewhere we can expect many places to be
dry and bright, but with heavy showers or thunderstorms affecting some
inland locations. Then as we head into the last week of the month, it
looks likely that largely fine conditions will continue in many areas,
especially in southern, central and western parts, but that northern
and northeastern areas will tend to be cloudier and breezier at times
with a higher risk of showers. The temperature during this spell is
likely to be warm or locally very warm at first, with a generally
rather humid feel, but as we head towards the end of the month it is
expected to become cooler in northern and eastern parts.

Updated: 1244 on Sun 16 May 2010

Next week: nice or utterly dismal?
 

On May 15, 1:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 14, 4:50*pm, Nick wrote:

Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Nick

I can understand anyone's confusion with that 6-15 day forecast at the
moment. This lunchtime's MetO picture update hardly paints the picture
that the models are showing for later next week. Maybe they are hoping
the weather will stay cool and unsettled to bolster their present cool
and wet start to June prediction in the 15-30 day forecast? Good luck
to them, but there's a lot of very low probability stuff in that. The
gfs shows a cold plumge at 12 days, but would anyone care to forecast
that will happen? I would think that persistence from the Azores high
would be a likelier option at 10-14 days, but that would also really
be a low probability assessment. *An element of how confident they are
in this forecast would be a big help. I gave a 75%+ confidence from 10
days out that we'd have a taste of summer from a movement of the
Azores high next Wednesday and I'm still happy with that.

Both models now going for persistence in the presence of that high
pressure over the UK. A possibility of it settling to our north, for a
while, leading to a spell of easterlies, but anticyclonic persistence
is the model theme tonight. See where we are tomorrow evening and I
may well be forecasting high pressure at 10 days, with dry, warmer
than average and settled conditions (generally) from midweek to then.
See if the 15-30 day forecast changes over the next few days as more
notice is paid to the currect models.

Does anyone keep any records of how accurate that "month in advance"
MetO forecast is? My suspicions, from erratically tuning into it, is
not very accurate at all - mainly because it is not possible to
forecast with accuracy, consistently, at that distance.........which
begs the question of why the MetO are producing them?