Weather Banter - High pressure at T240. Quiet and settled.

On Sep 24, 3:19*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 23, 10:30*pm, Richard Dixon wrote:

On 23 Sep, 18:41, Dawlish wrote:

That's exactly right Col. My methods have always been completely open,
always have been and if Mr Dixon would like to have a go at what I do,
instead of simply coming on here to criticise, I can assure him he
won't find it easy in the slightest.

Which is why I said earlier that I leave the Met Office to do it. You
just don't listen, do you?

He knows that though. I think the
problem is some people just hate the fact that the success rate is
that high.

Please don't make me laugh. Your success rate isn't high - you're
trying to benchmark your forecasts against time when the weather is
eminently forecastable. That's not a realistic sample of forecast
accuracy? Can't you see that? Forecasters have to forecast every day.
You don't.

If they tried the same thing, I would bet it wouldn't be
and criticism is always easier than getting off your backside and
trying.

You claim to take criticism quite well. I don't see much of it here,
you're just getting ratty now.

The method highlights those unusual times when agreement and
consistency allow pretty accurate forecasting at T240 - usually far
too far out for any kind of accuracy. That's all it does. It's neither
lucky, nor guesswork and the outcomes point to that being true.

Which is what forecasts do day in, day out. When I was researching, I
was lucky enough to see the 6-10 day internal forecasts. It's a great
shame these are not publicly available to all because they will
typically contain a "Confidence: High" or "Confidence: Low". The
difference here is that they have to publish when it says "Confidence:
Low" - you are merely picking situations in the models where there is
"Confidence: High".

It
requires constant minotring of the model output and I'm really
surprised that professional meteorologists don't use it, as forecast
accuracy at 10 days is hopeless.

You also must not read's Will's comments about the "Poor Man's
Ensemble" used in the Met Office.

As it happens, this particular forecast looks pretty dead in the water
tonight after the 12z gfs has a low pushing the high eastwards. I'm
sure that will please some.

Oh look at you now playing the victim. For goodness sake.

The previous 8 consecutive correct
forecasts very probably won't have done. Hey ho. Search Wiki for
"vulture". Ouch.

Yes, I'll get back into my tree. Much like your forecasts, I tend to
comment on here when I see fit.

Richard

Best to do what you said. you aren't the most impartial of judges,
when all's said and done.

Even though I try to be fair, it's hard to be impartial with someone
so thoroughly obnoxious.

Squawk,
Richard