Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
Steve Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow.

-------------------
.........and that's just a cross one - lets hope it doesn't get really
angry!
Dave

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well said. What is going on here makes Arsène Wenger look like a
cool, impartial observer of refereeing decisions such is the intense
one-eyed desire for cold weather and snow. One just rolls one's eyes
to the heavens and ignores it.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Dec 7, 11:49*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 07/12/10 20:07, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 7, 7:50 pm, "Will *wrote:
"Lawrence *wrote in message

aweb.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed..

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.

The Arctic oscillation is forecast to become strongly negative towards
the middle of the month. That would be consistent with frequent cold
blasts over the UK and Europe over that period.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...ex/ao_inde...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

True, but it it is a *forecast*, based upon the models and you have to
remember that the AO is not a cause of weather, it is simply a
pressure difference, forecast by NWP output. I agree with the AO
forecast for mid-month and I've forecast that the UK cold will resume
next week, because of a probable northly flow around a blocking
Atlantic/UK high (which will contribute to a -ve AO. However, just as
you cannot use the gfs for forecasting at 2 weeks+, neither can you
use a forecast of the AO turning negative to do the same thing, as it
is based upon the same numerical data.

The winter *may* assume epic proportions (in spring, don't anyone say;
"Dawlish didn't forecast it", because no-one can. They can just say it
will/may happen - and there's a big, big difference between those two
things, as forecasting prowess requires a past record based on
seasonal forecasting accuracy outcomes. NO-one here, or on any other
Internet forum has that), or it may assume the proportions of a fairly
average British winter with colder spells and the cold may disappear.
However, please don't think that just because someone gets it right
once, or twice, they have discovered the holy grail of winter
forecasting. They haven't. Promise you.

realist mode off, now where's my snow!! *))

On Dec 8, 12:19*am, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

* Steve Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow.

-------------------
........and that's just a cross one *- lets hope it doesn't get really
angry!
Dave

Well when I first saw that statement Dave I thought I they were
talking about an irritated transvestite Innuit called Flo.!!!

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.

Was that a euphemism (or a euphonium)?

Richard

On Dec 8, 2:42*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * Well said. *What is going on here makes Arsène Wenger look like a
cool, impartial observer of refereeing decisions such is the intense
one-eyed desire for cold weather and snow. *One just rolls one's eyes
to the heavens and ignores it.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yea, but it's excitin' though isn't it?

On Dec 8, 2:42*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:









On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * Well said. *What is going on here makes Arsène Wenger look like a
cool, impartial observer of refereeing decisions such is the intense
one-eyed desire for cold weather and snow. *One just rolls one's eyes
to the heavens and ignores it.

Although Piers appears to have trumped Daily Expresskimo Will:

http://www.weatheraction.com/display....asp?a=277&c=1

"HELL TO FREEZE OVER THIS WINTER".

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No37.pdf

Richard

On Dec 8, 9:29*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.

Was that a euphemism (or a euphonium)?

Richard

I think Tudor just gets brassed off with all of us acting like kids.
Anyhow its good to see him and Dawlish building bridges, ice bridges
that is.

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.