On Dec 8, 11:37*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 8, 11:24*am, Teignmouth wrote:



On Dec 8, 11:07*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.

Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The difference is that we've had cold winter ramping and we haven't
had any global warming ramping (whatever that is) whatsoever! Have we?
I've just pointed out that your second post is purely speculative
ramping T, which it is. Nothing more. Nothing whatsoever about GW. The
reaction from people when I point this out to them always surprises
me, though it's time I stopped being so naive at the depth of feeling
against anyone that points out to coldies that they may just be
talking b*llocks when they puts his wish for cold into some kind of
meteorological hopecast. Nothing wrong factually with anything I said,
but it's hard for the coldies to accept that anyone could possibly
criticise their hopes and needs for cold to happen.

Like I said. Happens every winter. Each to their own, I say.

Dawlish you are always ramping global warming with your hottest month
or 3rd hottest month on record etc etc etc, or is it your twin brother
posting on your behalf?

It's nice to have the other side of the fence view now and again.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I often report facts about global temperatures from the 5 temperature
series and changes in ENSO from NOAA and the Aussie BOM. No-one can
"ramp" GW. It's just global temperatures. The changes in those global
temperatures over time show trends. The current trend shows warming
over a long period and that requires scientific explanation. Like you
with the current cold spell, I make no apolgies for talking about
them. Nor should we.

However, this thread has nothing to do with GW! OOz keeps it cold out
to 10 days and the gfs and other models concur. Brrrrrrr.

It has everything to do with Global warming if, as I mentioned in
previous threads, it's the Arctic releasing cold air in one area of
the Northern hemisphere (NW Europe & Canada) as a result of addition
warm air caused by global warming being sent to the Arctic in another
area of the Northern hemisphere (West of Greenland & Bering
Straights).

It’s the globe trying to correct its self.

On Dec 8, 11:42*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Dec 8, 11:24*am, Teignmouth wrote:

Dawlish you are always ramping global warming with your hottest month
or 3rd hottest month on record etc etc etc, or is it your twin brother
posting on your behalf?

It's nice to have the other side of the fence view now and again.

My two-penneth. Was lucky enough to see Tim Palmer talk at a meeting a
month or so ago now. Probably the best weather/climate speaker there
is IMHO. Anyhow - he showed a very nice couple of slides that counter
the oft-quoted argument: "If we can't forecast the weather beyond
about 5 days, how can we forecast the climate"? He went on to show the
ideas of chaos, attractors, and how the atmosphere flips between
various states. His point is that chaos won't necessarily influence
longer-term trends and forecasts, even though it is inherent in the
results. His point is that the flip-flop of chaos into various states
will change and thus the atmosphere under climate change is likely to
remain in one of the states more often than pre-climate change.

The way I see this is that, although we might, for example flip to
more hot summers, this doesn't rule out the "flop" of winters like
this one (or the one last year). I also think personally there are
shorter-timescale modulations that lead to what we've seen in the past
3-5 years of quieter winters that modulate this change.

I also believe that there is more value in seasonal forecasts than
some place on here - which is why so much research goes into them. As
per an earlier post, a vastly improved stratospheric resolution has
improved the longer-term forecasts the Met Office provide, so it
doesn't surprise me that they stuck their neck out in their month
ahead forecast on the web going back way when if they saw a strong
signal for cold. Much like the climate modelling flip/flop comments
related to Tim Palmer's talk above - I believe chaos ruins the chances
of forecasting minutiae in the short-to-medium range up to 7-10 days,
but not the chance of forecasting *trends* over seasons.

Richard

It's interesting. I'd agree with your comments from your listening to
Tim Palmer. Chaos certainly doesn't ruin the chances of forecasting
*trends* over seasons. Be nice to look back in 20 years and see if the
factoring in of the improved stratospheric resolution improves longer-
term forecasting. I hope it does and it is good that lots of research
is seemingly occurring. I hope the MetO, in 20 years time, is much
more open about it's forecasting accuracy at all ranges too. It has to
be remembered that the MetO leads the world in this and still gets
seasonal forecasts hopelessly and publically (until last year) wrong
on a regular basis - hence no seasonal forecasts in public from the
MetO any more.

It's been a source of frustration that seasonal forecasting accuracy
has not improved a great deal over the last 20 years, nor over the 20
years before that. I remember listening to the Chief Forecaster from
the MetO. back in 1982, in notloB (OK, Monty Python refs are in
today!), strangely enough, talking about his confidence that we would
be able to forecast what the seasons ahead would be like with real
accuracy, by the early years of the 21st century and him also being
frustrated about the slow pace of improvement in seasonal forecast
accuracy over the previous few decades.

On Dec 8, 12:00*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
On Dec 8, 11:37*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 8, 11:24*am, Teignmouth wrote:

On Dec 8, 11:07*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com....

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.

Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The difference is that we've had cold winter ramping and we haven't
had any global warming ramping (whatever that is) whatsoever! Have we?
I've just pointed out that your second post is purely speculative
ramping T, which it is. Nothing more. Nothing whatsoever about GW. The
reaction from people when I point this out to them always surprises
me, though it's time I stopped being so naive at the depth of feeling
against anyone that points out to coldies that they may just be
talking b*llocks when they puts his wish for cold into some kind of
meteorological hopecast. Nothing wrong factually with anything I said,
but it's hard for the coldies to accept that anyone could possibly
criticise their hopes and needs for cold to happen.

Like I said. Happens every winter. Each to their own, I say.

Dawlish you are always ramping global warming with your hottest month
or 3rd hottest month on record etc etc etc, or is it your twin brother
posting on your behalf?

It's nice to have the other side of the fence view now and again.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I often report facts about global temperatures from the 5 temperature
series and changes in ENSO from NOAA and the Aussie BOM. No-one can
"ramp" GW. It's just global temperatures. The changes in those global
temperatures over time show trends. The current trend shows warming
over a long period and that requires scientific explanation. Like you
with the current cold spell, I make no apolgies for talking about
them. Nor should we.

However, this thread has nothing to do with GW! OOz keeps it cold out
to 10 days and the gfs and other models concur. Brrrrrrr.

It has everything to do with Global warming if, as I mentioned in
previous threads, it's the Arctic releasing cold air in one area of
the Northern hemisphere (NW Europe & Canada) as a result of addition
warm air caused by global warming being sent to the Arctic in another
area of the Northern hemisphere (West of Greenland & Bering
Straights).

It’s the globe trying to correct its self.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The globe doesn't know how to "correct itself", or even that it's out
of kilter in some way. It's just atmospheric physics and large scale,
temporary, circulation patterns, T. The thread is about the ECM, which
attempts to predict those patterns out to 10 days, which is what I was
trying to drag it back to!

It’s the globe trying to correct its self = atmospheric physics

Or to put it another way, every action has a reaction, cause & effect
(NEWTON).

So whilst there isn't a little green man at the centre of the globe
flicking a switch, it's amospheric physics caused by an action in one
area of the globe, and over longer periods of time, having an effect
on another area of the globe, that causes the climate to reach a
tipping point and switch, sometimes very rapidly.

I read somewhere that whilst the effects of the globe warming up may
be gradual, sudden switches to a colder climate and its effects can
happen very suddenly.

On Dec 8, 12:27*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
It’s the globe trying to correct its self = atmospheric physics

Or to put it another way, every action has a reaction, cause & effect
(NEWTON).

So whilst there isn't a little green man at the centre of the globe
flicking a switch, it's amospheric physics caused by an action in one
area of the globe, and over longer periods of time, having an effect
on another area of the globe, that causes the climate to reach a
tipping point and switch, sometimes very rapidly.

I read somewhere that whilst the effects of the globe warming up may
be gradual, sudden switches to a colder climate and its effects can
happen very suddenly.

You are correct according to ice core samples and other proxies I've
always been lead to understand that abrupt climate change can happen
globally very rapidly. I think ten years was one short transition
period I read about. If that was the case then may global shifts do
occur. I think the smooth global transition into ice -age condotion a
staggered with abrupt cooling and periods of warming. Mind you the
bigger the time scales the smoother it looks but human life is over
very small time scales.

On Dec 8, 11:19*am, Teignmouth wrote:
I thought these comments might start as soon as I pointed out the
reality. *((

The reality is the UK is experiencing an exceptional cold spell, the
current CET is -2.0c, that is a whopping -7.6c below normal or, to put
it another way more than 4 Standard Deviations below the 1971-2009
normal of +4.8c. Someone with a maths degree should be able to
calculate the probabilty of this occuring. Philip Eden's CEThttp://www.climate-uk.com/

Also, there is a thread on TWO comparing this December with previous
December Central England Temperatures, worth a look.http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...spx?g=posts&t=...

So I make no appologies for talking about this current cold spell, and
suggesting that it may be a once in a liftime event, because I've
never experienced such a cold start to December/Winter in my 39 years
on this planet.

Not sure if I'm reading this correct, and it's from Wikipedia, but 3
Standard Deviations = 1 in 370 years, 4 Standard Deviations = 1 in
15,787 years, and 5 Standard Deviations = 1,744,277 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

I've calculated the December mean from 1971 - 2009 as +5.0c, with a
Standard Deviation of 1.5c, so by my calculations the current CET that
is running at -2.0c is somewhere between 4 & 5 Standard Deviations.

I would be most grateful if someone could confirm?

In article 3cd5e097-a8e1-4c49-bf73-acbf05b55ee3
@j1g2000vbl.googlegroups.com, says...

The globe doesn't know how to "correct itself"


Why would it need to? It is trying to do exactly that on a 24/7 basis.
Weather is nothing more than a fluid dynamics system with major
imbalances trying to correct itself.

Intelligence or self awareness are not prerequisites for any physical
system to have a negative feedback mechanism.

--
Alan LeHun

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.

- Show quoted text -

I wish. The lubricant doesn't work and it's difficult to move
the slide. It's what we call getting a stiffy. Ho-ho. The
mouthpiece is so cold it numbs your lips, the very opposite of what's
needed. Also, it plays flat - one inch of slide postion per 10 degC.
Actually it's about half that because the mean temperature of the air
column is about halfway between body temperature and ambient. So if I
took up the clarinet, say, people could justifiably say "stick to the
trombone", to which the required answer is "I have - get some warm
water, could you?".

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Dec 8, 3:19*pm, Teignmouth wrote:

I've calculated the December mean from 1971 - 2009 as +5.0c, with a
Standard Deviation of 1.5c, so by my calculations the current CET that
is running at -2.0c is somewhere between 4 & 5 Standard Deviations.

Is there evidence that these values are normally distributed? Maybe
this has been throughly tested and is well-known? But if not then
personally I'd be happier with a non-parametric analysis.

JGD

In article
,
Teignmouth writes:
The reality is the UK is experiencing an exceptional cold spell, the
current CET is -2.0c, that is a whopping -7.6c below normal or, to put
it another way more than 4 Standard Deviations below the 1971-2009
normal of +4.8c. Someone with a maths degree should be able to
calculate the probabilty of this occuring. Philip Eden's CET
http://www.climate-uk.com/

Also, there is a thread on TWO comparing this December with previous
December Central England Temperatures, worth a look.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...g=posts&t=2200

So I make no appologies for talking about this current cold spell, and
suggesting that it may be a once in a liftime event, because I've
never experienced such a cold start to December/Winter in my 39 years
on this planet.

I can't recall such a cold start to the month, but the cold spell in
December 1981, which started somewhere around the 8th, I think was
comparable in its severity.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)