Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.

funny how ogre appears at first sight of mild weather. you been hiding
under your troll bridge since mid november?

forecast, all absolute bollox of course.


On 18/12/2010 7:16 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.

On 18/12/2010 19:27, The Incredible Mr Freeze wrote:

funny how ogre appears at first sight of mild weather. you been hiding
under your troll bridge since mid november?

forecast, all absolute bollox of course.


On 18/12/2010 7:16 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.


In defence of Dawlish, this is not just his forecast.

You are also telling the professionals running the Met Office and the
GFS forecasting models that they cannot do their jobs.

The information Dawlish has used is freely available and can be checked
on via the following link:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

This takes you to a "selection pad" where you can choose your model, the
time ahead and the predicted elements. For the purpose of this
discussion the 850hPa temperature and see level pressure (SLP) are most
revealing.

If the link does not work for you, go to "Netweather.tv" and from the
top menu bar select "Weather" and "Datacentre". The "Weather Chart
Viewer" panel on this page will take you to the forecast model chart
display.

The best way to use this facility is to go to it daily over a period of
several days. If the same story is told day after day and by more than
one model, there is a reasonable prospect of the outcome happening. If
the forecasts vary wildly from day to day and / or between models, then
the computers are guessing. A certain amount of meteorological
knowledge to actually interpret the charts (it is DIY with no text
interpretation) is also desirable.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read

On Dec 18, 9:05*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 18/12/2010 19:27, The Incredible Mr Freeze wrote:





funny how ogre appears at first sight of mild weather. you been hiding
under your troll bridge since mid november?

forecast, all absolute bollox of course.

On 18/12/2010 7:16 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.

In defence of Dawlish, this is not just his forecast.

You are also telling the professionals running the Met Office and the
GFS forecasting models that they cannot do their jobs.

The information Dawlish has used is freely available and can be checked
on via the following link:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

This takes you to a "selection pad" where you can choose your model, the
time ahead and the predicted elements. *For the purpose of this
discussion the 850hPa temperature and see level pressure (SLP) are most
revealing.

If the link does not work for you, go to "Netweather.tv" and from the
top menu bar select "Weather" and "Datacentre". *The "Weather Chart
Viewer" panel on this page will take you to the forecast model chart
display.

The best way to use this facility is to go to it daily over a period of
several days. *If the same story is told day after day and by more than
one model, there is a reasonable prospect of the outcome happening. *If
the forecasts vary wildly from day to day and / or between models, then
the computers are guessing. *A certain amount of meteorological
knowledge to actually interpret the charts (it is DIY with no text
interpretation) is also desirable.

--
* - Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Yokel, Merci. I'd just go with 5 runs and agreement with the ECM.
However this stalker doesn't understand sense like you've just posted
and it won't follow your links, as it only has one real reason for
posting here.

I don't reply to stalkers. Others do and reply positively too, thus
supporting their activity. They know who they are and they know
exactly what they do. That's for them and their conscience. This one
is very careful, these days, about what it says and it has modified
its activity since I contacted its local police, though, rather
riskily and stupidly, it hasn't stopped. At least it now knows the
possible consequences, however. It is an "it" to me (but not to
others), as it never reveals its name on usenet.

On a different note and back to the purpose of this newsgroup, which
it ridicules with every post, the 00z ensembles don't give too much of
a clue to the weather at 10 days, with the ECM being a warm outlier
and the gfs being a colder run - and there is one hell of a spread
after only a few days. It will be interesting to see the 12z
ensembles.

On Dec 18, 9:21*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 18, 9:05*pm, Yokel wrote:





On 18/12/2010 19:27, The Incredible Mr Freeze wrote:

funny how ogre appears at first sight of mild weather. you been hiding
under your troll bridge since mid november?

forecast, all absolute bollox of course.

On 18/12/2010 7:16 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.

In defence of Dawlish, this is not just his forecast.

You are also telling the professionals running the Met Office and the
GFS forecasting models that they cannot do their jobs.

The information Dawlish has used is freely available and can be checked
on via the following link:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

This takes you to a "selection pad" where you can choose your model, the
time ahead and the predicted elements. *For the purpose of this
discussion the 850hPa temperature and see level pressure (SLP) are most
revealing.

If the link does not work for you, go to "Netweather.tv" and from the
top menu bar select "Weather" and "Datacentre". *The "Weather Chart
Viewer" panel on this page will take you to the forecast model chart
display.

The best way to use this facility is to go to it daily over a period of
several days. *If the same story is told day after day and by more than
one model, there is a reasonable prospect of the outcome happening. *If
the forecasts vary wildly from day to day and / or between models, then
the computers are guessing. *A certain amount of meteorological
knowledge to actually interpret the charts (it is DIY with no text
interpretation) is also desirable.

--
* - Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Yokel, Merci. I'd just go with 5 runs and agreement with the ECM.
However this stalker doesn't understand sense like you've just posted
and it won't follow your links, as it only has one real reason for
posting here.

I don't reply to stalkers. Others do and reply positively too, thus
supporting their activity. They know who they are and they know
exactly what they do. That's for them and their conscience. This one
is very careful, these days, about what it says and it has modified
its activity since I contacted its local police, though, rather
riskily and stupidly, it hasn't stopped. At least it now knows the
possible consequences, however. It is an "it" to me (but not to
others), as it never reveals its name on usenet.

On a different note and back to the purpose of this newsgroup, which
it ridicules with every post, the 00z ensembles don't give too much of
a clue to the weather at 10 days, with the ECM being a warm outlier
and the gfs being a colder run - and there is one hell of a spread
after only a few days. It will be interesting to see the 12z
ensembles.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs actually shows good ensemble agreement for a mildening around
the 26/27th.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On a different note and back to the purpose of this newsgroup, which
it ridicules with every post, the 00z ensembles don't give too much of
a clue to the weather at 10 days, with the ECM being a warm outlier
and the gfs being a colder run - and there is one hell of a spread
after only a few days. It will be interesting to see the 12z
ensembles.

I find this a useful tool for getting a feel of what the latest GFS
ensemble is saying:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

(Of course that graph has its limitations. For example in an easterly
the 850mb temp can be quite high when there's cold air at the surface.)

There's reasonable agreement in the 12Z 850mb temperatures up to
Christmas Day (though 2 members turn it much warmer for the 23rd and
24th). After that, the lines spread out, though the consensus is that
850mb temps will return to close to the average for this time of year.
The operational run is a mild outlier from the 27th onwards. Prior to
Christmas Tuesday looks like being the wettest and least cold day, at
least in the SE. (The 12Z ECM ensemble 850mb "mittel" chart suggests the
same thing but extends it into Wednesday.) Looks from the GFS graph like
it could be pretty unsettled from about the 26th-31st, after which it
might settle down (but that's a long way out).
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 18, 9:44*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
On a different note and back to the purpose of this newsgroup, which
it ridicules with every post, the 00z ensembles don't give too much of
a clue to the weather at 10 days, with the ECM being a warm outlier
and the gfs being a colder run - and there is one hell of a spread
after only a few days. It will be interesting to see the 12z
ensembles.

I find this a useful tool for getting a feel of what the latest GFS
ensemble is saying:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

(Of course that graph has its limitations. For example in an easterly
the 850mb temp can be quite high when there's cold air at the surface.)

There's reasonable agreement in the 12Z 850mb temperatures up to
Christmas Day (though 2 members turn it much warmer for the 23rd and
24th). After that, the lines spread out, though the consensus is that
850mb temps will return to close to the average for this time of year.
The operational run is a mild outlier from the 27th onwards. Prior to
Christmas Tuesday looks like being the wettest and least cold day, at
least in the SE. (The 12Z ECM ensemble 850mb "mittel" chart suggests the
same thing but extends it into Wednesday.) Looks from the GFS graph like
it could be pretty unsettled from about the 26th-31st, after which it
might settle down (but that's a long way out).
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

Agreed. They're the gfs ensembles. Past the 28th anything could happen
and it *could* be a very zonal set-up into the new year, with a
European high encroaching into southern England. 70F in an English
winter, for the first time, later in the winter anyone? *))

still waiting for credentials and experiance and why your last 10
forecast were all wrong.

PS explain a rosby wave again or shall I repost your explaination of it
recently on u.s.w?

your IT
****


On 18/12/2010 9:21 PM, Dawlish wrote:


I don't reply to stalkers.

thank John, techinal details as expected totaly ignored by IT (ogre)

On 18/12/2010 9:44 PM, John Hall wrote:
b temp can be quite high when there's cold air at the surface.)

There's reasonable agreement in the 12Z 850mb temperatures up to
Christmas Day (though 2 members turn it much warmer for the 23rd and
24th). After that, the lines spread out, though the consensus is that
850mb temps will return to close to the average for this time of year.
The operational run is a mild outlier from the 27th onwards. Prior to
Christmas Tuesday looks like being the wettest and least cold day, at
least in the SE. (The 12Z ECM ensemble 850mb "mittel" chart suggests the
same thing but extends it into Wednesday.) Looks from the GFS graph like
it could be pretty unsettled from about the 26th-31st, after which it
might settle down (but that's a long way out).

be warned

google account termination for any personal info posted.

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numbers, and driver's license numbers. Also, please keep in mind that in
most cases, information that is already available elsewhere on the
Internet or in public records is not considered to be private or
confidential under our policies.




On 18/12/2010 9:27 PM, Dawlish wrote:

I don't reply to stalkers. Others do and reply positively too, thus
supporting their activity. They know who they are and they know
exactly what they do. That's for them and their conscience. This one
is very careful, these days, about what it says and it has modified
its activity since I contacted its local police, though, rather
riskily and stupidly, it hasn't stopped. At least it now knows the
possible consequences, however. It is an "it" to me (but not to
others), as it never reveals its name on usenet.