Is there a reason why, despite the apparent change to colder winters in
the last three years, we rarely see any direct influence of the
Scandinavian HP, which in itself seems less inclined to form?

Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Is there a reason why, despite the apparent change to colder winters in
the last three years, we rarely see any direct influence of the
Scandinavian HP, which in itself seems less inclined to form?

Dave

Yes!
In my opinion warmer arctic oceans decrease the Atlantic baroclinicity thus
reducing the opportunities for warm air to be thrown northwards as deep
depressions turn north which would aid anticyclonic development over
Scandinavia. Instead we have more opportunities for mid-Atlantic blocking as
depressions leaving the US eastern seaboard lose vigour turn and throw warm
air up east of Greenland. That is probably a gross over-simplification
though as I have not considered the northern hemispheric circulation with
that.

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Is there a reason why, despite the apparent change to colder winters in
the last three years, we rarely see any direct influence of the
Scandinavian HP, which in itself seems less inclined to form?

Dave

Yes!
In my opinion warmer arctic oceans decrease the Atlantic baroclinicity
thus reducing the opportunities for warm air to be thrown northwards as
deep depressions turn north which would aid anticyclonic development over
Scandinavia. Instead we have more opportunities for mid-Atlantic blocking
as depressions leaving the US eastern seaboard lose vigour turn and throw
warm air up east of Greenland. That is probably a gross
over-simplification though as I have not considered the northern
hemispheric circulation with that.

Will
--

oops that should read *west* of Greenland not east.

Will
--

On Jan 2, 10:23*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

...





"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Is there a reason why, despite the apparent change to colder winters in
the last three years, we rarely see any direct influence of the
Scandinavian HP, which in itself seems less inclined to form?

Dave

Yes!
In my opinion warmer arctic oceans decrease the Atlantic baroclinicity
thus reducing the opportunities for warm air to be thrown northwards as
deep depressions turn north which would aid anticyclonic development over
Scandinavia. Instead we have more opportunities for mid-Atlantic blocking
as depressions leaving the US eastern seaboard lose vigour turn and throw
warm air up east of Greenland. That is probably a gross
over-simplification though as I have not considered the northern
hemispheric circulation with that.

Will
--

oops that should read *west* of Greenland not east.

Will
--

What effect is this having on the North Pacific? The jet seems to have
been strong and fairly straight over there, it's only the North
Atlantic where it has lost it's vigor.

Again, looking at gfs 18z, nothing is very conclusive, in fact that
colder air to the north seems to be gathering more pace on each run,
although not really heading to far south - yet.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"