"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Jan 4, 5:08 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"ronaldbutton" wrote in message

...





It has come to my attention lately ,that several members of this happy
breed seem to take grave exception to those of us who attempt making
long
range forecasts,
well ,I for one, actually enjoy reading most of 'em,even the south
London
Piers attempts !,.
If there are enough mugs around to pay good money for their ravings well
so be it,but why do people get so upset because they try ?.Most of us
have
a vicarious streak in us ,which needs feeding every so often,so keep up
the good work lads( I say lads because women don't seem prone to this
phenomena)
Unashamably I now look forward to Wills ,Philip Eden,the Met Office,Old
Moores Almanac,and any other brave soul willing to put their necks on
the
line so that I may daydream about the next blizzard ,heatwave ,or
whatever
turns you on.
Thankyou and goodnight

RonB

Cheers Ron, I enjoy producing them and I take pleasure when they
occasionally come off! This winter's has already gone wrong (though not
the
informal amendment), but it went wrong in the right way (for me).

I still reckon it will be a historic winter!

I hear rumours of a sudden stratospheric warming event in forecasts.
If it does come off I wonder if it'll propagate downward like last (?)
winter and fiddle with the troposphere.

And yes I agree with you Ron: it's enjoyable reading the various
forecasts even if a) some are naff and b) some people seem to want to
verify everything under the sun.

Richard

Making LRF is bleedin' well nigh on impossible and when you see people over
on TWO not so much a s making a forcasting but purely guessing-well then it
gets silly, However professional forecasters all well and good I mean Will
and Joe B are both professional men and will try and factor in so many
reasons for their conclusions-good luck to them.

"ronaldbutton" wrote in message
...
It has come to my attention lately ,that several members of this happy
breed seem to take grave exception to those of us who attempt making long
range forecasts,
well ,I for one, actually enjoy reading most of 'em,even the south London
Piers attempts !,.
If there are enough mugs around to pay good money for their ravings well
so be it,but why do people get so upset because they try ?.Most of us have
a vicarious streak in us ,which needs feeding every so often,so keep up
the good work lads( I say lads because women don't seem prone to this
phenomena)
Unashamably I now look forward to Wills ,Philip Eden,the Met Office,Old
Moores Almanac,and any other brave soul willing to put their necks on the
line so that I may daydream about the next blizzard ,heatwave ,or whatever
turns you on.
Thankyou and goodnight

RonB
Ron name these miserable men by rank and serial number

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
b.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"ronaldbutton" wrote in message
...
It has come to my attention lately ,that several members of this happy
breed seem to take grave exception to those of us who attempt making
long range forecasts,
well ,I for one, actually enjoy reading most of 'em,even the south
London Piers attempts !,.
If there are enough mugs around to pay good money for their ravings well
so be it,but why do people get so upset because they try ?.Most of us
have a vicarious streak in us ,which needs feeding every so often,so
keep up the good work lads( I say lads because women don't seem prone to
this phenomena)
Unashamably I now look forward to Wills ,Philip Eden,the Met Office,Old
Moores Almanac,and any other brave soul willing to put their necks on
the line so that I may daydream about the next blizzard ,heatwave ,or
whatever turns you on.
Thankyou and goodnight

RonB

Cheers Ron, I enjoy producing them and I take pleasure when they
occasionally come off! This winter's has already gone wrong (though not
the informal amendment), but it went wrong in the right way (for me).

I still reckon it will be a historic winter!

Will
--


Well Will I see Accuweather via Joe is showing a major cold out break all
the way to the deep south, thank you ma'am. The actual models show snow as
far south as Galveston and that's enough to freeze of your Glenn
Campbell's. However I don't think that fits the pattern of J B's LRF for
the USA which was cold and snowy up until Christmas and then fairly
benign.

Anyway Will what are you seeing that fills you with such damned bravado?

That damned stratosphere looks threatening to me! At least at 200 mb if you
know how to interpret the charts from GFS. Just look at that polar vortex
migrating SW'wards next weekend, ooh er!

Will
--

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

Well it has been an historic December anyway and you and the Met Office
did well in predicting it. Ron knows what I think of LRF's but it doesn't
mean people shouldn't make them or others read them. I also don't
understand this bravery thing. Meteorology is supposed to be a science as
far as I know so a forecast of any kind should be based on the best
available scientific data and if it turns out wrong then that's not a
problem. What is a problem and I don't enjoy are people claiming they were
right when they patently weren't - this is fraud, especially when people
have paid. Then there are others that are so vague that I could have done
it by sticking a pin in it and saying it was a good forecast.I have yet to
see anyone get them consistently right and until they do, to me they are a
waste of time.

They are not a waste of time in the sense that if you don't even
attempt them because the techniques haven't been developed
yet to make them consistent, then the techniques never *will* be
developed. Catch 22!
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
b.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"ronaldbutton" wrote in message
...
It has come to my attention lately ,that several members of this happy
breed seem to take grave exception to those of us who attempt making
long range forecasts,
well ,I for one, actually enjoy reading most of 'em,even the south
London Piers attempts !,.
If there are enough mugs around to pay good money for their ravings
well so be it,but why do people get so upset because they try ?.Most of
us have a vicarious streak in us ,which needs feeding every so often,so
keep up the good work lads( I say lads because women don't seem prone
to this phenomena)
Unashamably I now look forward to Wills ,Philip Eden,the Met Office,Old
Moores Almanac,and any other brave soul willing to put their necks on
the line so that I may daydream about the next blizzard ,heatwave ,or
whatever turns you on.
Thankyou and goodnight

RonB

Cheers Ron, I enjoy producing them and I take pleasure when they
occasionally come off! This winter's has already gone wrong (though not
the informal amendment), but it went wrong in the right way (for me).

I still reckon it will be a historic winter!

Will
--


Well Will I see Accuweather via Joe is showing a major cold out break all
the way to the deep south, thank you ma'am. The actual models show snow
as far south as Galveston and that's enough to freeze of your Glenn
Campbell's. However I don't think that fits the pattern of J B's LRF for
the USA which was cold and snowy up until Christmas and then fairly
benign.

Anyway Will what are you seeing that fills you with such damned bravado?

That damned stratosphere looks threatening to me! At least at 200 mb if
you know how to interpret the charts from GFS. Just look at that polar
vortex migrating SW'wards next weekend, ooh er!

Will
--


I see mild and cold Will but then again I'm in two minds as I suffer from Bi
Polar disorder, isn't that SAD sometimes.

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...



That damned stratosphere looks threatening to me! At least at 200 mb if
you know how to interpret the charts from GFS. Just look at that polar
vortex migrating SW'wards next weekend, ooh er!

I wouldn't have a clue how to interpret a 200mb chart but the GFS
sea level pressure charts from early next week onwards seem to show
generally zonal conditions.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In article
,
Richard Dixon writes:
On Jan 4, 5:37*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

Mmm, do I sense a carrot Will, I'm beginning to lean towards my
original 'it was an early winter so Jan/Feb will be average' thoughts,
but a long time to go yet ;-)

Certainly sounds reasonable from the viewpoint of "things balance out
after a while" point of view.

But is there any reason for thinking that they will do so over a period
of 2 or 3 months? I would have thought that if anything there would be a
slight tendency towards persistence, in particular because sea
temperature anomalies will often persist and are likely to be a factor
in "driving" the weather. The last two winters have tended to bear that
out, with all three months being below normal (though in the case of one
of the 6 months only marginally so).

FWIW, after the 6 previous negative CET Decembers in the CET record,
there were 3 followed by cold Januaries (Jan 1879, -0,7; Jan 1891, 1.3;
Jan 1789, 1.5). 2 were followed by averageish (for the period) Januaries
(Jan 1677, 3; Jan 1796, 3.5). Only one was mild (Jan 1875, 6.5). However
the Februaries were a pretty uninspiring bunch, the coldest having a
mean of 2.3 and the remainder ranging between 3.1 and 5.0.

Although you'd have been waiting a long
time in 62/63 for that compensatory milder spell...!

Richard


--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

In article
,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
On Jan 4, 5:45*pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Jan 4, 5:37*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

Mmm, do I sense a carrot Will, I'm beginning to lean towards my
original 'it was an early winter so Jan/Feb will be average' thoughts,
but a long time to go yet ;-)

Certainly sounds reasonable from the viewpoint of "things balance out
after a while" point of view. Although you'd have been waiting a long
time in 62/63 for that compensatory milder spell...!

Richard

Ah, but 1962/63 didn't start until Boxing Day.

That's a bit of an over-simplification. There had been a couple of brief
cold spells earlier in the month, though admittedly nothing out of the
ordinary. (There had also been quite a sharp cold snap in mid-November.)
And though the snow at the end of the month didn't arrive till Boxing
Day (at least in the south), the bitter easterlies had set in on about
the 22nd or 23rd and that's when I would regard the winter as having
really started.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

In article ,
Col writes:

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...



That damned stratosphere looks threatening to me! At least at 200 mb if
you know how to interpret the charts from GFS. Just look at that polar
vortex migrating SW'wards next weekend, ooh er!

I wouldn't have a clue how to interpret a 200mb chart but the GFS
sea level pressure charts from early next week onwards seem to show
generally zonal conditions.

I've noted that the last few operational runs have seemed to show that
with an unusual degree of consistency, but then right at the end of the
period (ie around the 19th) they show pressure rising over Scandinavia.
Obviously it would be unsafe to read too much into that at this stage.
(But the end of January and into February is when Scandi Highs seem to
have formed most frequently in the past.)
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Tuesday 04 Jan 2011 17:51, Keith (Southend)G scribbled:

On Jan 4, 5:45 pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Jan 4, 5:37 pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

Mmm, do I sense a carrot Will, I'm beginning to lean towards my
original 'it was an early winter so Jan/Feb will be average' thoughts,
but a long time to go yet ;-)

Certainly sounds reasonable from the viewpoint of "things balance out
after a while" point of view. Although you'd have been waiting a long
time in 62/63 for that compensatory milder spell...!

Richard

Ah, but 1962/63 didn't start until Boxing Day.


I'm reminded of a discussion during a cold spell in November '63. Someone
remarked on how cold it was and wondered whether winter was starting earlier
than the last one. He got the answer that in November '62 there had already
been a week of persistent frost by the same time.

There were also freezing spells in December and I recall the week before
Christmas being one of those sub-zero spells. I think it was that week when
we had a fall of ice-needles in the form of large flakes. The snow began on
Boxing Day but it had been freezing hard before that. One of the reasons for
the persistence of the snow and cold weather was attributed by some to the
ground being frozen hard before the Boxing Day snowfall.

CET for November '62 was 1.1C below average (1951-80) and December was 1.9C
below.


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]