http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...

Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....

I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!

Phil

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...

Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would return
after the 5th....

I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of
time!

Phil

He may be right but I'm gobsmacked to be honest. I have been tracking the
stratwarm and it is propagating downwards, strong zonal mean 60-90N rises
now at 10hPa and 30hPa, I am sticking to my guns for now as, as I predicted,
models are all over the place as they struggle with the details of the
stratospheric changes.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../ann_data.html

Anyway I'm off out to enjoy this sunny frosty day, because it is the only
weather I have got :-)

Will
--

Well if JB's forecast is right it looks like a mild Jan and Feb is now on
the cards, so not such a record cold Winter after all!
Ah well, was only a dream, looks like Winter 1979 is still going to end up
much colder than 2011 despite the bitter December.
Apart from Scotland maybe?

Graham

On Jan 9, 8:42*am, Phil Layton wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...

Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....

I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!

Phil

what a surprise - he'll probably be changing his mind back to cold
again in a few days...

On 09/01/2011 11:08, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 9, 8:42 am, Phil wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...

Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....

I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!

Phil

what a surprise - he'll probably be changing his mind back to cold
again in a few days...


I wonder if we could be seeing a variation of the old Red Indian
firewood joke here?:-



It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new
Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been
taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what
the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the
winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village
should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He
went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is
the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the
Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood
in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. Is it
going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be
a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every
scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you
absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the
coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

--
Howard Neil

On Jan 9, 11:17*am, Howard Neil wrote:
On 09/01/2011 11:08, Scott W wrote:



On Jan 9, 8:42 am, Phil *wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...

Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....

I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!

Phil

what a surprise - he'll probably be changing his mind back to cold
again in a few days...

I wonder if we could be seeing a variation of the old Red Indian
firewood joke here?:-

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new
Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been
taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what
the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the
winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village
should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He
went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is
the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the
Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood
in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. Is it
going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be
a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every
scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you
absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the
coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

--
Howard Neil

What is worth mentioning is that as Will has pointed out, there are
many more complex things going on through the atmosphere which we
still need to know more about and are only just starting to add to the
equation, which is far from complete. It will be interesting to see
what actually happens.

I could be smug and say 'I told you so', as I have and still feel the
winter came early, so will the spring, but that would be claiming
credit just like the Pier's of the world, when at the end of the day
it is only my personal gut feeling based on nothing else than gut
feeling. My next concern would be a return to cold weather at Easter,
but again, just guessing.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Jan 9, 10:20*am, "Graham" wrote:
Well if JB's forecast is right it looks like a mild Jan and Feb is now on
the cards, so not such a record cold Winter after all!
Ah well, was only a dream, looks like Winter 1979 is still going to end up
much colder than 2011 despite the bitter December.
Apart from Scotland maybe?

Graham

Way too early to tell for Scotland Graham, bare in mind that for a
few places in Scotland the winter of 2009/10 was colder than 1978/79.
A week short of halfway through the winter and here's how they compare
in this area.

1978/79 1st dec - Jan 8th +1.3ºC. Whole winter +0.2ºC
1981/82 1st dec - Jan 9th -2.3ºC. Whole winter +0.9ºC
2009/10 1st dec - Jan 8th -1.3ºC. Whole winter +0.2ºC

2010/11 1st dec - Jan 8th -2.6ºC Whole winter ?

The second half of the 78/79 winter was obviously very cold. This
winter is just a tad colder than 81/82 was by the same stage.

Alex
Wishaw, Central lowlands

I sent an email to Joe B on 21/10/10 explaining that the UK was heading for a severe winter period. His web blog was against this from the start and here's his reply to me, 'okay, I guess time will tell even when patterns are turning colder, its not always cold'

He definitely got the severe spell the UK had very wrong.

Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Jan 9, 11:17 am, Howard Neil wrote:
On 09/01/2011 11:08, Scott W wrote:



On Jan 9, 8:42 am, Phil wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp
Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...
Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....
I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!
Phil
what a surprise - he'll probably be changing his mind back to cold
again in a few days...
I wonder if we could be seeing a variation of the old Red Indian
firewood joke here?:-

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new
Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been
taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what
the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the
winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village
should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He
went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is
the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the
Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood
in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. Is it
going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be
a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every
scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you
absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the
coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

--
Howard Neil

What is worth mentioning is that as Will has pointed out, there are
many more complex things going on through the atmosphere which we
still need to know more about and are only just starting to add to the
equation, which is far from complete. It will be interesting to see
what actually happens.

I could be smug and say 'I told you so', as I have and still feel the
winter came early, so will the spring, but that would be claiming
credit just like the Pier's of the world, when at the end of the day
it is only my personal gut feeling based on nothing else than gut
feeling. My next concern would be a return to cold weather at Easter,
but again, just guessing.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
----------------------
Well all the others might not be guessing but they may as well be as
most of them will be wrong but someone will get lucky.
Dave

On Jan 9, 7:25*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Jan 9, 11:17 am, Howard Neil wrote:
On 09/01/2011 11:08, Scott W wrote:

On Jan 9, 8:42 am, Phil *wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp
Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...
Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....
I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!
Phil
what a surprise - he'll probably be changing his mind back to cold
again in a few days...
I wonder if we could be seeing a variation of the old Red Indian
firewood joke here?:-

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new
Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been
taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what
the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the
winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village
should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He
went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is
the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the
Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood
in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. Is it
going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be
a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every
scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you
absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the
coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

--
Howard Neil

What is worth mentioning is that as Will has pointed out, there are
many more complex things going on through the atmosphere which we
still need to know more about and are only just starting to add to the
equation, which is far from complete. It will be interesting to see
what actually happens.

I could be smug and say 'I told you so', as I have *and still feel the
winter came early, so will the spring, but that would be claiming
credit just like the Pier's of the world, when at the end of the day
it is only my personal gut feeling based on nothing else than gut
feeling. My next concern would be a return to cold weather at Easter,
but again, just guessing.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

----------------------
Well all the others might not be guessing but they may as well be as
most of them will be wrong but someone will get lucky.
Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Someone *always* gets lucky.