I'm confident enough to say that a pattern change is coming. Agreement
and consistency throughout today from the gfs and ECM.

**By Sun 6th Feb, at T240, the anticyclonic, colder and drier weather
of the end of January, will have been replaced by wet and windy
weather for much of the UK. Lows passing to the north of the UK and
higher pressure to the south will produce an airflow from the
Atlantic. The UK will be experiencing few frosts and many areas will
be experiencing average to above average early February
temperatures**.

On Jan 27, 9:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:
I'm confident enough to say that a pattern change is coming. Agreement
and consistency throughout today from the gfs and ECM.

**By Sun 6th Feb, at T240, the anticyclonic, colder and drier weather
of the end of January, will have been replaced by wet and windy
weather for much of the UK. Lows passing to the north of the UK and
higher pressure to the south will produce an airflow from the
Atlantic. The UK will be experiencing few frosts and many areas will
be experiencing average to above average early February
temperatures**.

Won't at all be surprised if this happens even as early as mid to end
of next week.

On Jan 27, 10:21*pm, Alan wrote:
On Jan 27, 9:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:

I'm confident enough to say that a pattern change is coming. Agreement
and consistency throughout today from the gfs and ECM.

**By Sun 6th Feb, at T240, the anticyclonic, colder and drier weather
of the end of January, will have been replaced by wet and windy
weather for much of the UK. Lows passing to the north of the UK and
higher pressure to the south will produce an airflow from the
Atlantic. The UK will be experiencing few frosts and many areas will
be experiencing average to above average early February
temperatures**.

Won't at all be surprised if this happens even as early as mid to end
of next week.

May well be so Alan, starting in the NW next week and some fronts may
well make it to the SE soon after. However, high pressure looks like
it will keep its influence for longer in the south. Very typical zonal
conditions in the UK really. The Atlantic almost seems to be winding
itself up for a UK onslaught at 8-10 days on the 00z gfs and the 00z
ECM and this looks like it will be fuelled by the strongest and the
flattest jet, at the latitudes of the UK, of the winter so far. I
don't see it as being terrificallly mild, though, just average to
above average temperatures at 10 days, but there may well be some nice
days in any transient ridges and on the days that the higher pressure
re-establishes itself in the south.

Here in Dawlish, I'm looking forward to some fairly clement conditions
until the Atlantic (perhaps) really gets going, after these foul
easterlies disappear with this short live colder spell, probably after
Monday. Some rain, from time to time, but nothing particularly cold
and hopefully some sunshine on the weather horizon!

On Jan 28, 7:43*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 27, 10:21*pm, Alan wrote:

On Jan 27, 9:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:

I'm confident enough to say that a pattern change is coming. Agreement
and consistency throughout today from the gfs and ECM.

**By Sun 6th Feb, at T240, the anticyclonic, colder and drier weather
of the end of January, will have been replaced by wet and windy
weather for much of the UK. Lows passing to the north of the UK and
higher pressure to the south will produce an airflow from the
Atlantic. The UK will be experiencing few frosts and many areas will
be experiencing average to above average early February
temperatures**.

Won't at all be surprised if this happens even as early as mid to end
of next week.

May well be so Alan, starting in the NW next week and some fronts may
well make it to the SE soon after. However, high pressure looks like
it will keep its influence for longer in the south. Very typical zonal
conditions in the UK really. The Atlantic almost seems to be winding
itself up for a UK onslaught at 8-10 days on the 00z gfs and the 00z
ECM and this looks like it will be fuelled by the strongest and the
flattest jet, at the latitudes of the UK, of the winter so far. I
don't see it as being terrificallly mild, though, just average to
above average temperatures at 10 days, but there may well be some nice
days in any transient ridges and on the days that the higher pressure
re-establishes itself in the south.

Here in Dawlish, I'm looking forward to some fairly clement conditions
until the Atlantic (perhaps) really gets going, after these foul
easterlies disappear with this short live colder spell, probably after
Monday. Some rain, from time to time, but nothing particularly cold
and hopefully some sunshine on the weather horizon!

Ensembles certainly back a change through the first week in Feb.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

..........and the MetO agree too.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Feb 2011 to Friday 11 Feb 2011:
The early to mid part of next week is expected to mark a transition
from the current relatively settled conditions to a much more
changeable, unsettled, and often windy weather type. These unsettled
conditions, marked by spells of clearer, showery weather alternating
with cloudier periods with more widespread rain, will then persist
across the UK through the rest of next week and onwards through the
following week. Rain will be heavy at times, especially to the north
and west, whilst showers will occasionally be wintry, particularly
over northern regions. Often windy, with gales or severe gales
possible some days, with northwestern Britain most at risk. Meanwhile,
considerable day-to-day fluctuations in temperature are expected, some
days being quite mild, whilst showery days will often also be colder.
Updated: 1141 on Fri 28 Jan 2011

Pattern change highly likely. Perhaps the first real unsettled and
zonal weather of the winter?

On Jan 27, 10:21*pm, Alan wrote:
On Jan 27, 9:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:

I'm confident enough to say that a pattern change is coming.

Won't at all be surprised if this happens even as early as mid to end
of next week.

All your base are belong High.
And some fool reckons that will change, eh?

My, my.
Well, one lives and learns.

Meanwhile, on planet earth, the High is no longer providing drizzle.

4 mag 7 quakes in less than 3 weeks and another to come when Mr
Dullwish gets his act together and makes it plain just what and when:

Magnitude 7.2 SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN January 18, 2011
Magnitude 7.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS January 13, 2011
Magnitude 7.1 ARAUCANIA, CHILE January 02, 2011
Magnitude 7.0 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA January 01, 2011
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/

I'd bet a tenner on Bonin Islands. Meanwhile the blocking high
stopping the Low leaving USA at the moment must be getting the
Aleutians trembling. I wonder what the North Atlantic set-up was like
for severe San Francisco/Californian quakes ^n times past.

Where is Felix Tilley when you don't need him?

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Ensembles certainly back a change through the first week in Feb.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

.........and the MetO agree too.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Feb 2011 to Friday 11 Feb 2011:
The early to mid part of next week is expected to mark a transition
from the current relatively settled conditions to a much more
changeable, unsettled, and often windy weather type.

snip

Pattern change highly likely.

Yes. As near certain as these things can ever be, I think.

Perhaps the first real unsettled and
zonal weather of the winter?

Depends whether the spell while you were away qualifies as that, I
suppose.

Interesting that the MetO Outlook for the following two weeks indicates
that they then expect things to settle down again, especially in the
south.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

On Jan 28, 6:20*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Ensembles certainly back a change through the first week in Feb.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

.........and the MetO agree too.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Feb 2011 to Friday 11 Feb 2011:
The early to mid part of next week is expected to mark a transition
from the current relatively settled conditions to a much more
changeable, unsettled, and often windy weather type.

snip



Pattern change highly likely.

Yes. As near certain as these things can ever be, I think.

Though it looks like the whole of next week will remain settled in the
south, if mild from about Wednesday/Thursday onwards.

Perhaps the first real unsettled and
zonal weather of the winter?

Depends whether the spell while you were away qualifies as that, I
suppose.

I'd say it did.

Interesting that the MetO Outlook for the following two weeks indicates
that they then expect things to settle down again, especially in the
south.
--

Often seems to be that way, it's quite frequent to find a very
disturbed period early February which doesn't last the whole month
(see other post on patterns).

Nick

On Jan 28, 6:37*pm, Nick wrote:
On Jan 28, 6:20*pm, John Hall wrote:





In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Ensembles certainly back a change through the first week in Feb.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas....

.........and the MetO agree too.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Feb 2011 to Friday 11 Feb 2011:
The early to mid part of next week is expected to mark a transition
from the current relatively settled conditions to a much more
changeable, unsettled, and often windy weather type.

snip

Pattern change highly likely.

Yes. As near certain as these things can ever be, I think.

Though it looks like the whole of next week will remain settled in the
south, if mild from about Wednesday/Thursday onwards.

Perhaps the first real unsettled and
zonal weather of the winter?

Depends whether the spell while you were away qualifies as that, I
suppose.

I'd say it did.

Interesting that the MetO Outlook for the following two weeks indicates
that they then expect things to settle down again, especially in the
south.
--

Often seems to be that way, it's quite frequent to find a very
disturbed period early February which doesn't last the whole month
(see other post on patterns).

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM and gfs pointing to Atlantic weather out to 10 days, after
these cooler conditions disappear early next week. The 12z gfs is
suggesting an extended period of Atlantic weather and some very mild
conditions towards mid-month. Pile of salt stuff with that though. Too
far out for confidence. Mind you, looking at those present models,
I'll bet those hopecasters at Weather Services International are
biting their fingernails and praying for a change in the zonal and
increasingly milder model outlook! The Daily Over-Expressive won't
mind. Their hack will just ditch that bunch and find someone else that
will tell them that we're bound to get blizzards in March. That'll
make a good story for it's comatose readership to nod in agreement and
then not think any more about. WSI could still guess right, of course
and they'd then be the forecasting darlings of the day! Never judge a
forecast until outcome, I say! *))

Now that you have perfected your technique for forecasting at 10 days
when the models are in agreement, have you considered developing your
skills further to maybe making a forecast once a week every week for
your home town?

I know this is a little more difficult, so at first you might like to
consider making a forecast on a Sunday (no help from Country File) for
say the the following Friday or Saturday, and once you've perfected
that move the day back one until you reach the magical 10 days again.

The forecast doesn't have to be exact, general conditions, wind from a
particular quarter & max/min temps give or take say 2°C is sufficient.

I used to run a similar competition on another forum, moving the
location each week, with points being issued, it was great fun.

As we live in neighbouring towns with a similar climate, if you make a
forecast for Dawlish/Teignmouth on Sunday for the following Friday I
will do the same for each week during February.

Anyone else can join in if they wish.

Gauntlet thrown down!

In message
,
Teignmouth writes
Now that you have perfected your technique for forecasting at 10 days
when the models are in agreement, have you considered developing your
skills further to maybe making a forecast once a week every week for
your home town?

I know this is a little more difficult, so at first you might like to
consider making a forecast on a Sunday (no help from Country File) for
say the the following Friday or Saturday, and once you've perfected
that move the day back one until you reach the magical 10 days again.

The forecast doesn't have to be exact, general conditions, wind from a
particular quarter & max/min temps give or take say 2°C is sufficient.

I used to run a similar competition on another forum, moving the
location each week, with points being issued, it was great fun.

As we live in neighbouring towns with a similar climate, if you make a
forecast for Dawlish/Teignmouth on Sunday for the following Friday I
will do the same for each week during February.

Anyone else can join in if they wish.

Gauntlet thrown down!


I'm wholly confident that evenings will get lighter later and mornings
lighter earlier. I'll also throw in that the sun will get higher in the
sky until mid/late June.

Come on now put your money where your mouth is! ;-))
--

Jim