http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?

In article ,
Western .Sky writes:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?

Yes, I've just been looking at that. Whether that anticyclone will
subsequently develop enough to bring cold weather into the UK is
unclear. The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run. Of course it's only one run. It
could be the first sign of a change, or it could be something that has
vanished by the next run. The latter is probably rather more likely than
the former at this stage.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

Western .Sky wrote:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?
--------------------
I suggest you save that chart on your PC and then have another look at
it on February 11th.

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Western .Sky writes:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?

Yes, I've just been looking at that. Whether that anticyclone will
subsequently develop enough to bring cold weather into the UK is
unclear. The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run. Of course it's only one run. It
could be the first sign of a change, or it could be something that has
vanished by the next run. The latter is probably rather more likely than
the former at this stage.

I really hesitate to say this, but I will, the stratosphere is starting to
warm again strongly high up and that will slow down the westerlies if it
penetrates lower through breaking gravity waves. The ECM could be picking up
on this allowing the westerlies to back dragging up low ertel potential
vorticity air northwards and building pressure over Scandinavia. Of more
interest maybe is the the strong baroclinic zone developing next week near
Newfoundland with 850 hPa ranging from -30C to +10c over a short distance!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Western .Sky writes:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?

Yes, I've just been looking at that. Whether that anticyclone will
subsequently develop enough to bring cold weather into the UK is
unclear. The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run. Of course it's only one run. It
could be the first sign of a change, or it could be something that has
vanished by the next run. The latter is probably rather more likely than
the former at this stage.

I really hesitate to say this, but I will, the stratosphere is starting to
warm again strongly high up and that will slow down the westerlies if it
penetrates lower through breaking gravity waves. The ECM could be picking
up on this allowing the westerlies to back dragging up low ertel potential
vorticity air northwards and building pressure over Scandinavia. Of more
interest maybe is the the strong baroclinic zone developing next week near
Newfoundland with 850 hPa ranging from -30C to +10c over a short distance!

Will

Oops breaking Rossby waves of course, not gravity waves - silly me!

Will
--

JMA looks similar...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

On 01/02/2011 7:27 PM, John Hall wrote:
In ,
Western writes:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?

Yes, I've just been looking at that. Whether that anticyclone will
subsequently develop enough to bring cold weather into the UK is
unclear. The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run. Of course it's only one run. It
could be the first sign of a change, or it could be something that has
vanished by the next run. The latter is probably rather more likely than
the former at this stage.

Yep that run clearly shows the jest sinking south, the wavelength
increasing, warm southerly low ertel potential vorticity air thrusting
northwards at T+168 to T+192 developing high pressure to our east. The high
to the north of Novoya Zemla may have a different cause in that run. We may
be homing in on this time next week for the end of the zonality.

Will
--

"Western .Sky" wrote in message
...
JMA looks similar...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

On 01/02/2011 7:27 PM, John Hall wrote:
In ,
Western writes:
http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

and whats that to N.E?

Yes, I've just been looking at that. Whether that anticyclone will
subsequently develop enough to bring cold weather into the UK is
unclear. The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run. Of course it's only one run. It
could be the first sign of a change, or it could be something that has
vanished by the next run. The latter is probably rather more likely than
the former at this stage.

Will

The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run.
-----------------------
Well let's hope it doesn't turn out like the one on the 12z which
plummeted to -27C on the 17th. Did you see that? Someone must have spilt
their coffee on the dataset ;-)

Dave

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:

Will

The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run.
-----------------------
Well let's hope it doesn't turn out like the one on the 12z which
plummeted to -27C on the 17th. Did you see that? Someone must have
spilt their coffee on the dataset ;-)

Yes, I saw it. It was the GFS ensemble rather than the ECMWF, though. I
think it actually only goes to -20, and that the line you were looking
at is actually from an intersecting precipitation spike. Of course, even
-20 would be quite something, at least on a par with and probably even
colder than in January 1987. And there's another ensemble member going
to -15. Of course those two members are massive outliers, and the other
18 are "normal" and mostly on the mild side.

I was intrigued enough to look at all 20 GFS 12Z ensemble members at
T+384, and quite a few show an anticyclone over Scandinavia by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

and select from the 4th row down. P10 seems to be the really cold
ensemble member.

Of course by the time you read this the 18Z ensemble may be up, and no
doubt all will have changed.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

In message , Will Hand
writes

.....

Oops breaking Rossby waves of course, not gravity waves - silly me!

Was more than usually puzzled, I must say.

--
Peter Thomas