For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an
easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild.
However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will
never really make it, to take hold.

Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week,
however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK,
but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A
short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into
the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning!

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an
easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild.
However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will
never really make it, to take hold.

Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week,
however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK,
but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A
short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into
the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning!

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I
suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid
might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble
members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on
the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members -
certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some
time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being
severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than
that.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverw...asp?r=zuidwest

In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold
conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being
odds against.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an
easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild.
However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will
never really make it, to take hold.

Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week,
however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK,
but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A
short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into
the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning!

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I
suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid
might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble
members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on
the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members -
certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some
time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being
severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than
that.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverw...asp?r=zuidwest

In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold
conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being
odds against.
----------------------
Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of
December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing
that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth
getting excited about. December seems to have shifted the goalposts
somewhat!
Dave
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of
December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing
that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth
getting excited about. December seems to have shifted the goalposts
somewhat!

I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives
going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240
that never seems to happen
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives
going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240
that never seems to happen
--

Same here, it's been going on for weeks. Why are they so obsessed, December
has gone, that was winter 2011?
They keep saying zonality is dead, but this is by far the warmest February
on record (1960-2011), as it stands after 13 days
and I can't see that changing much with more very mild weather to come,
after a few average days this week.
If my current mean for February remains close to what it is now, Winter 2011
won't be far from average, who would a thought that a few weeks ago?
Move on guys, the very cold air may return next Winter but for now it's a
distant memory.

Graham

december very cold
janurary cold
feb mild

hardly MILD overall. and zonenality weak and appeared only for a few
days in jan and for a few days last week.


On 13/02/2011 3:31 PM, Graham wrote:

I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives
going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240
that never seems to happen

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of
December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing
that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth
getting excited about.

Not necessarily, though of course memorable spells are always going to
be rare.

December seems to have shifted the goalposts somewhat!

True. It's hard to remember now that only three or so years ago some
cold lovers were despairing that we might never get really severe winter
weather again, at least in the south.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

december very cold
janurary cold
feb mild

hardly MILD overall. and zonenality weak and appeared only for a few
days in jan and for a few days last week.


On 13/02/2011 3:31 PM, Graham wrote:

I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives
going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240
that never seems to happen


Actually the above comment was sent by COL.
I didn't say the winter would be mild overall, I said closer to average
which it will be if this is a record breaking mild February, which at the
moment is on the cards!


Graham

On Feb 13, 10:12*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an
easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild.
However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will
never really make it, to take hold.

Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week,
however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK,
but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A
short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into
the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning!

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I
suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid
might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble
members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on
the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members -
certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some
time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being
severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than
that.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Lon...asp?r=zuidwest

In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold
conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being
odds against.
--
John Hall

* * * * * * * * * * "The covers of this book are too far apart."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

The threat of cold is like Heaney's father in "The Follower". It will
not go away.........

gfs 12z just keeps the coldies hanging on!

On Feb 13, 3:02*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message

...

Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of
December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing
that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth
getting excited about. December seems to have shifted the goalposts
somewhat!

I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives
going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240
that never seems to happen
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

lol. *))