I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or so
as the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next likely
change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime air from the
NW perhaps?
Dave

Dave Cornwell wrote:
I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or so
as the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next likely
change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime air from the
NW perhaps?
Dave
----------------
No takers then, must be tricky ;-) (Except Darren of course)
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Dave Cornwell wrote:
I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or so as
the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next likely
change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime air from the
NW perhaps?
Dave
----------------
No takers then, must be tricky ;-) (Except Darren of course)
Dave


You not seen my Dartmoor forecast? Gives you some idea. I used the ECM
ensemble mean to prepare it for the end of next week.

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Dave Cornwell wrote:
I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or
so as the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next
likely change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime
air from the NW perhaps?
Dave
----------------
No takers then, must be tricky ;-) (Except Darren of course)
Dave


You not seen my Dartmoor forecast? Gives you some idea. I used the ECM
ensemble mean to prepare it for the end of next week.

Will
---------------------
Thought that it didn't come out till today. See it agrees with me though
;-) This cloud is very troublesome to predict for them. So far we have
had two fairly early clearances but today is supposed to be the sunniest
here yet it can be clearly seen as cloudy on the Vis and is likely to be
in fact the latest clearance of the three days. Who'd be a forecaster
eh, Will !
Dave

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
This cloud is very troublesome to predict for them. So far we have had
two fairly early clearances but today is supposed to be the sunniest
here yet it can be clearly seen as cloudy on the Vis and is likely to
be in fact the latest clearance of the three days. Who'd be a
forecaster eh, Will !

All the local variations must be difficult to include in a short
forecast. Here in SW Surrey, the cloud hasn't reached us at all
overnight or this morning. Yesterday the cloud didn't vanish till about
1:30pm, and on Wednesday it didn't move in till around dawn and had
cleared by about noon.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Dave Cornwell wrote:
I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or so
as the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next likely
change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime air from
the NW perhaps?
Dave
----------------
No takers then, must be tricky ;-) (Except Darren of course)
Dave


You not seen my Dartmoor forecast? Gives you some idea. I used the ECM
ensemble mean to prepare it for the end of next week.

Will
---------------------
Thought that it didn't come out till today. See it agrees with me though
;-) This cloud is very troublesome to predict for them. So far we have had
two fairly early clearances but today is supposed to be the sunniest here
yet it can be clearly seen as cloudy on the Vis and is likely to be in
fact the latest clearance of the three days. Who'd be a forecaster eh,
Will !
Dave

On the large broadscale things are reasonably clear. At some stage next week
the Euro block will decline and main blocking will shift to the western
Atlantic in response to changes over the Pacific. What is unclear is the
extent of the cold air plunge in the NW'ly at end of next week. It could
become quite severe over Scotland but extent south is not clear. It is
complicated by a shortwave running over the mid-Atlantic ridge and its
interaction with Greenland and subsequent development. Possibility that the
shortwave could run SE into UK next weekend in a developing NW jet streak.

Will
--

On Mar 3, 7:32*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or so
as the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next likely
change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime air from the
NW perhaps?
Dave

Join the club, Dave. Not enough agreement, or consistency at 10 days.
It looks cooler than average, but I wouldn't go much further than
that. Will's Dartmoor forecast talks of low confidence and gives no
idea about your request for ideas about changes from this pattern, as
far as I can see. I agree with him completely. Low confidence.

Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 3, 7:32 pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I can see the potential day to day variations over the next week or so
as the HP wanders around but keeps it dry. But what is the next likely
change from this pattern - some incursion of polar maritime air from the
NW perhaps?
Dave

Join the club, Dave. Not enough agreement, or consistency at 10 days.
It looks cooler than average, but I wouldn't go much further than
that. Will's Dartmoor forecast talks of low confidence and gives no
idea about your request for ideas about changes from this pattern, as
far as I can see. I agree with him completely. Low confidence.
----------------

Hence the lack of takers, which is right really, no point in forecasting
the unknown.
Dave