Forecast: more mobile conditions at T240. Pattern change.
 

2 days after it was supposed to be going to stay blocked until summer
too! *( I suppose it still could...... *(

The ECM tonight gives me enough consistency and agreement for a
forecast. The JMA agrees to 9 days.

** On Wed 30th March the anticyclone which is presently dominating our
weather will have declined and will have been replaced with a much
more mobile flow from the Atlantic. This will lead to windier and more
unsettled weather with rain for most areas around the end of the
month, especially for the west and north-west. Transient ridges of
high pressure will provide respite, but there will have been a pattern-
change to Atlantic weather. **

80% chance of success, based upon past performance.

Oh well! The difficulties of trying to figure out what the British
weather will be like, past 10 days, eh?

Forecast: more mobile conditions at T240. Pattern change.
 

On Mar 20, 8:28*pm, Dawlish wrote:
2 days after it was supposed to be going to stay blocked until summer
too! *( I suppose it still could...... *(

The ECM tonight gives me enough consistency and agreement for a
forecast. The JMA agrees to 9 days.

** On Wed 30th March the anticyclone which is presently dominating our
weather will have declined and will have been replaced with a much
more mobile flow from the Atlantic. This will lead to windier and more
unsettled weather with rain for most areas around the end of the
month, especially for the west and north-west. Transient ridges of
high pressure will provide respite, but there will have been a pattern-
change to Atlantic weather. **

80% chance of success, based upon past performance.

Oh well! The difficulties of trying to figure out what the British
weather will be like, past 10 days, eh?

Typical! Just as the season for anticyclonic gloom comes to an end,
and the clocks change, the Atlantic comes along to spoil it all. Can
only hope (for the south) that the more anticyclonic ECM version is
closer to the truth than the cyclonic GFS version of events...

Nick

Forecast: more mobile conditions at T240. Pattern change.
 

On Mar 21, 5:30*pm, Nick wrote:
On Mar 20, 8:28*pm, Dawlish wrote:





2 days after it was supposed to be going to stay blocked until summer
too! *( I suppose it still could...... *(

The ECM tonight gives me enough consistency and agreement for a
forecast. The JMA agrees to 9 days.

** On Wed 30th March the anticyclone which is presently dominating our
weather will have declined and will have been replaced with a much
more mobile flow from the Atlantic. This will lead to windier and more
unsettled weather with rain for most areas around the end of the
month, especially for the west and north-west. Transient ridges of
high pressure will provide respite, but there will have been a pattern-
change to Atlantic weather. **

80% chance of success, based upon past performance.

Oh well! The difficulties of trying to figure out what the British
weather will be like, past 10 days, eh?

Typical! Just as the season for anticyclonic gloom comes to an end,
and the clocks change, the Atlantic comes along to spoil it all. Can
only hope (for the south) that the more anticyclonic ECM version is
closer to the truth than the cyclonic GFS version of events...

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*)) 12z gfs certainly has a zonal look about it! The ensembles are
showing a wetter outlook, into April, by the run:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

See if the 12z ECM shows anything different.

Forecast: more mobile conditions at T240. Pattern change.
 

On Mar 21, 5:30*pm, Nick wrote:
On Mar 20, 8:28*pm, Dawlish wrote:





2 days after it was supposed to be going to stay blocked until summer
too! *( I suppose it still could...... *(

The ECM tonight gives me enough consistency and agreement for a
forecast. The JMA agrees to 9 days.

** On Wed 30th March the anticyclone which is presently dominating our
weather will have declined and will have been replaced with a much
more mobile flow from the Atlantic. This will lead to windier and more
unsettled weather with rain for most areas around the end of the
month, especially for the west and north-west. Transient ridges of
high pressure will provide respite, but there will have been a pattern-
change to Atlantic weather. **

80% chance of success, based upon past performance.

Oh well! The difficulties of trying to figure out what the British
weather will be like, past 10 days, eh?

Typical! Just as the season for anticyclonic gloom comes to an end,
and the clocks change, the Atlantic comes along to spoil it all. Can
only hope (for the south) that the more anticyclonic ECM version is
closer to the truth than the cyclonic GFS version of events...

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Didn't last Nick. ECM operational winds up some deep depressions
crossing to the N of Scotland around the end of the month. The picture
looks very zonal into April on all models. Funny how things can change
over the course of a couple of days, isn't it?

Forecast: more mobile conditions at T240. Pattern change.
 

On Mar 20, 9:28*pm, Dawlish wrote:
2 days after it was supposed to be going to stay blocked until summer
too! *( I suppose it still could...... *(

The ECM tonight gives me enough consistency and agreement for a
forecast. The JMA agrees to 9 days.

** On Wed 30th March the anticyclone which is presently dominating our
weather will have declined and will have been replaced with a much
more mobile flow from the Atlantic. This will lead to windier and more
unsettled weather with rain for most areas around the end of the
month, especially for the west and north-west. Transient ridges of
high pressure will provide respite, but there will have been a pattern-
change to Atlantic weather. **

80% chance of success, based upon past performance.

Oh well! The difficulties of trying to figure out what the British
weather will be like, past 10 days, eh?

Not much wrong with this one. The pattern change arrived as expected.
82/102 correct 80.4%