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Old August 1st 11, 05:51 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (1/08/11)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0450, 1/08/11

The end of the working week still looks like seeing unsettled weather
spreading across much of the UK with temperatures falling back to average or
slightly below.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Southerlies and SSW'lies cover the UK as the result of a deep low to the NW
and a ridge to the east. Tomorrow a col covers the UK, before pressure falls
to the south on Wednesday. By then easterlies and SE'lies cover much of the
UK. Thursday sees southerlies as a trough crosses Ireland.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a strong southerly-tracking jet over the North
Atlantic and to the south of the UK. At the 500hPa level SW'lies cover the
UK, with an upper low to the WNW. MetO also has upper SW'lies, as do the
other runs.
At the surface the GFS run shows SW'lies due to a low to the west. MetO has
a weak ridge and westerlies, while ECM brings WSW'lies and a low to the
north. GEM has a trough over eastern areas with WNW'lies over the UK. JMA
has a col and light winds.

Evolution to day 7
Low pressure lies to the NW on day 6 with ECM, leading to WSW'lies. There
are westerlies on day 7 as pressure falls over the North Sea.
GFS brings a slack low and light winds for most on day 6. The low moves away
eastwards on day 7, leading to moderate NW'lies over the UK.

Looking further afield
Day 8 with ECM shows moderate westerlies and WNW'lies as low pressure moves
away to the NE. There are further WNW'lies on day 9, followed by NW'lies on
day 10 as pressure builds to the west.
GFS shows a col on day 8, followed by SW'lies on day 9 as a low crosses
Scotland. There are NW'lies on day 10 as the low moves away to the east.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
GEFS shows 3 warm days, followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
ECM shows warm or very warm weather for the next 3 days.


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