"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well I think that this has been a lovely summer. Very few days over 21C

I think most people would regard that as a sign of a poor summer.
In Spain, it wouldn't even count as summer at all. :-)
(We're on an alert here for temps up to 40C in some parts.)

On 18/08/11 20:48, Gavino wrote:
"Will wrote in message
...
Well I think that this has been a lovely summer. Very few days over 21C

I think most people would regard that as a sign of a poor summer.
In Spain, it wouldn't even count as summer at all. :-)
(We're on an alert here for temps up to 40C in some parts.)




It is a lovely summer if you are one of those who cannot stand high
temperatures (or don't have air conditioning and enjoy a good nights sleep).

On Aug 18, 10:15*am, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...





In article
,
Nick writes:
Looking at the models, which seem to indicate no further spells of
settled weather before the end of the month and a risk of some very
poor days next week, it looks like high summer (July, August) 2011
will be yet another poor one, the fifth on the trot, and summer 2011
the third in the last five I would perceive as below-average (though
summer overall in 2009 and 2010 was "saved", if you will, by June).

However looking at longer term weather records, e.g. Trevor Harley's,
it seems that the recent run of average-to-good summers from 1989 to
2006 was perhaps the aberration and a summer like 2011 is closer to
the average than one thinks.
snip

My memories of some pretty dire summers in the 1960s suggest that back
then this summer would have been viewed as average, or perhaps even a
little above. And the 1950s, which I was too young to remember clearly,
may have been even worse, at least as regards rainfall amounts (with the
notable exception of 1959 - which I /do/ remember - and to a lesser
extent 1955).

Even the 1970s and 1980s, which the exceptions of 1975 and 1976, for the
most part were little if any better.

Indeed, although 1983 was a very good summer.
It has already been mentioned that the 1989-2006 run of summers has
rather 'spoilt' us in our perception of what an 'average' summer should
be like from a climatalogical perspective. I've heard comments like
'this year is the 5th poor summer in a row', but is it? Apart from the
horrendous 2007, I don't think it's been on the whole too bad.
In addition, a substantial run of average/poor summers might just shift
the public perception back to something more realistic.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree with all that and even in 2006 you could not convince
late middle-aged people that recent summers were better than when they
were very young, but they were. This may be due to selective memory
of particular fine days or spells and is part of the very human need
to erase bad memories and preserve and even enhance the good ones but
it doesn't make for good climatology.
Some of the summers in to 50s were dreadful, 1954 in
particular and even at the age of 11 I thought it was not what it
should be. 1959 and to a lesser extent 1955 were brilliant but there
was not another reasonable summer until 1964 and that had a pretty
poor June.
I think the good summers of 1989-2006 will return fairly soon,
given the overall warming, but there's more to it than that.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On 19/08/11 01:17, Tudor Hughes wrote:


I agree with all that and even in 2006 you could not convince
late middle-aged people that recent summers were better than when they
were very young, but they were. This may be due to selective memory
of particular fine days or spells and is part of the very human need
to erase bad memories and preserve and even enhance the good ones but
it doesn't make for good climatology.

It is because if the weather is good, you are more likely to be out
doing things, enjoying yourself, and thus having a more memorable day.
Sitting indoors reading a book with the rain lashing down isn't the sort
of thing that tends to stick in the mind 40 years later.

The same effect can be observed regarding frequency of snowy winters
i.e. the same people will claim snowy winters were much more frequent
than the climatology data would suggest.

Tudor Hughes wrote:


I agree with all that and even in 2006 you could not convince
late middle-aged people that recent summers were better than when they
were very young, but they were. This may be due to selective memory
of particular fine days or spells and is part of the very human need
to erase bad memories and preserve and even enhance the good ones but
it doesn't make for good climatology.

Ah, the 'summer holiday effect'.
As an 8 year old child the 6 weeks might as well have been forever,
well they certainly seemed that way at the start.
Endless days playing outside, always warm, always sunny, gettng
sunburnt rather than soaked.
But of course it wasn't really like that. There would have been days
with pouring rain when I was cooped up inside getting under my Mum's
feet, but nobody ever rembers that.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Aug 19, 8:38*am, Adam Lea wrote:
On 19/08/11 01:17, Tudor Hughes wrote:



* * * * *I agree with all that and even in 2006 you could not convince
late middle-aged people that recent summers were better than when they
were very young, but they were. *This may be due to selective memory
of particular fine days or spells and is part of the very human need
to erase bad memories and preserve and even enhance the good ones but
it doesn't make for good climatology.

It is because if the weather is good, you are more likely to be out
doing things, enjoying yourself, and thus having a more memorable day.
Sitting indoors reading a book with the rain lashing down isn't the sort
of thing that tends to stick in the mind 40 years later.

The same effect can be observed regarding frequency of snowy winters
i.e. the same people will claim snowy winters were much more frequent
than the climatology data would suggest.

Interesting that, though I do remember some childhood/early-teenage
summers such as 1980 and 1985 being poor, even though, in 1985 at
least, I was outdoors a fair bit of the time. ISTR the latter being
rather like the current one, cool and breezy with light rain at times
but no real deluges.

On the other hand, I have very vague memories of associating very
early summers of my life with a lot of sunshine. Would be interesting
to test that theory - what was summer 1977 like in NW England? I have
vague memories of it being sunny but most people seem to report that
as a poor summer.

Nick

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 18/08/11 20:48, Gavino wrote:
"Will wrote in message
...
Well I think that this has been a lovely summer. Very few days over 21C

I think most people would regard that as a sign of a poor summer.
In Spain, it wouldn't even count as summer at all. :-)
(We're on an alert here for temps up to 40C in some parts.)

It is a lovely summer if you are one of those who cannot stand high
temperatures (or don't have air conditioning and enjoy a good nights
sleep).

Strangely, I have no trouble at all sleeping in the summer (and here we
often have nights where the temperature never drops *below* 21C - last
night's TV forecast made great play of that with a map showing areas of the
country with expected minima over 23C, the so-called 'threshold of sleep').

I find it much harder to sleep in the winter - someone else recently
mentioned the 'cold feet' syndrome.
What Will thinks of as heaven would be a living hell for me.
I don't know why he doesn't emigrate to Greenland. :-)

On Aug 18, 10:15*am, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...



In article
,
Nick writes:
Looking at the models, which seem to indicate no further spells of
settled weather before the end of the month and a risk of some very
poor days next week, it looks like high summer (July, August) 2011
will be yet another poor one, the fifth on the trot, and summer 2011
the third in the last five I would perceive as below-average (though
summer overall in 2009 and 2010 was "saved", if you will, by June).

However looking at longer term weather records, e.g. Trevor Harley's,
it seems that the recent run of average-to-good summers from 1989 to
2006 was perhaps the aberration and a summer like 2011 is closer to
the average than one thinks.
snip

My memories of some pretty dire summers in the 1960s suggest that back
then this summer would have been viewed as average, or perhaps even a
little above. And the 1950s, which I was too young to remember clearly,
may have been even worse, at least as regards rainfall amounts (with the
notable exception of 1959 - which I /do/ remember - and to a lesser
extent 1955).

Even the 1970s and 1980s, which the exceptions of 1975 and 1976, for the
most part were little if any better.

Indeed, although 1983 was a very good summer.

1984 was also good, and ISTR 1982 also being fairly good as well,
though with a not-so-good June (at least in SW Scotland where I was on
holiday for 2 weeks, can't remember the rest of it). 1981 too had a
very good August in the south, though 1985-88 were consistently poor,
very reminiscent of the current spell.

Nick

On Aug 19, 11:38*am, Nick wrote:
On Aug 18, 10:15*am, "Col" wrote:









"John Hall" wrote in message

.. .

In article
,
Nick writes:
Looking at the models, which seem to indicate no further spells of
settled weather before the end of the month and a risk of some very
poor days next week, it looks like high summer (July, August) 2011
will be yet another poor one, the fifth on the trot, and summer 2011
the third in the last five I would perceive as below-average (though
summer overall in 2009 and 2010 was "saved", if you will, by June).

However looking at longer term weather records, e.g. Trevor Harley's,
it seems that the recent run of average-to-good summers from 1989 to
2006 was perhaps the aberration and a summer like 2011 is closer to
the average than one thinks.
snip

My memories of some pretty dire summers in the 1960s suggest that back
then this summer would have been viewed as average, or perhaps even a
little above. And the 1950s, which I was too young to remember clearly,
may have been even worse, at least as regards rainfall amounts (with the
notable exception of 1959 - which I /do/ remember - and to a lesser
extent 1955).

Even the 1970s and 1980s, which the exceptions of 1975 and 1976, for the
most part were little if any better.

Indeed, although 1983 was a very good summer.

1984 was also good, and ISTR 1982 also being fairly good as well,
though with a not-so-good June (at least in SW Scotland where I was on
holiday for 2 weeks, can't remember the rest of it). 1981 too had a
very good August in the south, though 1985-88 were consistently poor,
very reminiscent of the current spell.

Nick

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An average summer? People's perceptions are many and varied.

I have done an analysis on Plymouth's rain and mean summer
temperatures 1951-2010. Six decades spanning approx my life, although
I have only lived half of it in the Plymouth area.
Previously a decade on the Suffolk coast, a decade in Herts, and a
decade in London.

The analysis is for June, July, and August.
Mean summer temperature 15.74 +/- 0.82C
Rain 190.8 +/- 63.9 mm
More or less than 1 standard deviation from the mean counts as a hot/
cold, wet/dry summer.

Hot summers:
1955
1959
1975
1976
1983
1989
1995
2003
2006

Cold summers:
1954
1962
1963
1965
1966
1974
1978
1980
1985
1986
2002

Wet summers:
1954
1956
1958
1965
1968
1969
1985
1986
1997
2008

Dry summers:
1964
1975
1976
1983
1984
1989
1995
1996
2000
2006

There are 11 cold summers and 9 hot summers. The cold summers are
mostly in the first 3 decades. None in the 90s!
Hot summers are pretty evenly distributed across the 6 decades.
7 out of 10 driest summers in the last 3 decades.
6 out of 10 wettest summers in the first 2 decades.

So summers seem to have warmed up and become drier according to these
stats.

As Tudor points out, some summers in the 50s were rather wet.
And in the 60s they were rather cold.
1954 was both wet and cold, as was 1965.

Perhaps I should do the analysis for school holidays, last two weeks
of July and the whole of August?
Plymouth is not especially reprentative of England, never mind the UK.
However, it is representative of a popular holiday area.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On 20/08/11 11:35, Len Wood wrote:
On Aug 19, 11:38 am, wrote:
On Aug 18, 10:15 am, wrote:









"John wrote in message

...

In article
,
writes:
Looking at the models, which seem to indicate no further spells of
settled weather before the end of the month and a risk of some very
poor days next week, it looks like high summer (July, August) 2011
will be yet another poor one, the fifth on the trot, and summer 2011
the third in the last five I would perceive as below-average (though
summer overall in 2009 and 2010 was "saved", if you will, by June).

However looking at longer term weather records, e.g. Trevor Harley's,
it seems that the recent run of average-to-good summers from 1989 to
2006 was perhaps the aberration and a summer like 2011 is closer to
the average than one thinks.
snip

My memories of some pretty dire summers in the 1960s suggest that back
then this summer would have been viewed as average, or perhaps even a
little above. And the 1950s, which I was too young to remember clearly,
may have been even worse, at least as regards rainfall amounts (with the
notable exception of 1959 - which I /do/ remember - and to a lesser
extent 1955).

Even the 1970s and 1980s, which the exceptions of 1975 and 1976, for the
most part were little if any better.

Indeed, although 1983 was a very good summer.

1984 was also good, and ISTR 1982 also being fairly good as well,
though with a not-so-good June (at least in SW Scotland where I was on
holiday for 2 weeks, can't remember the rest of it). 1981 too had a
very good August in the south, though 1985-88 were consistently poor,
very reminiscent of the current spell.

Nick

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An average summer? People's perceptions are many and varied.

I have done an analysis on Plymouth's rain and mean summer
temperatures 1951-2010. Six decades spanning approx my life, although
I have only lived half of it in the Plymouth area.
Previously a decade on the Suffolk coast, a decade in Herts, and a
decade in London.

The analysis is for June, July, and August.
Mean summer temperature 15.74 +/- 0.82C
Rain 190.8 +/- 63.9 mm
More or less than 1 standard deviation from the mean counts as a hot/
cold, wet/dry summer.

Hot summers:
1955
1959
1975
1976
1983
1989
1995
2003
2006

Cold summers:
1954
1962
1963
1965
1966
1974
1978
1980
1985
1986
2002

Wet summers:
1954
1956
1958
1965
1968
1969
1985
1986
1997
2008

Dry summers:
1964
1975
1976
1983
1984
1989
1995
1996
2000
2006

There are 11 cold summers and 9 hot summers. The cold summers are
mostly in the first 3 decades. None in the 90s!
Hot summers are pretty evenly distributed across the 6 decades.
7 out of 10 driest summers in the last 3 decades.
6 out of 10 wettest summers in the first 2 decades.

So summers seem to have warmed up and become drier according to these
stats.

As Tudor points out, some summers in the 50s were rather wet.
And in the 60s they were rather cold.
1954 was both wet and cold, as was 1965.

Perhaps I should do the analysis for school holidays, last two weeks
of July and the whole of August?
Plymouth is not especially reprentative of England, never mind the UK.
However, it is representative of a popular holiday area.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Surprised that 2007 is not in your list of wet summers.

According to the Met Office climate graphs, for the UK as a whole, there
seems to have been a trend towards wetter summers in recent years.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/