All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

On Aug 28, 9:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick

"Nick" wrote in message
...
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:
All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4
days.

Will
--

On Aug 28, 9:25*pm, Nick wrote:
On Aug 28, 9:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick

I'm quite sure that's what they currently show at 10 days Nick!

12z ECM:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

12z gfs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

12z JMA

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

The gfs ensembles that I posted in my opening post showed the same.

Maybe tomorrow will show something better!

On Aug 28, 9:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Nick" wrote in message

...
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4
days.

Will
--

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Aug 28, 9:35 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Nick" wrote in message

...
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no
operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after
4
days.

Will
--

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))
==============================================

LOL. That was over a season, not for one specific event. And yes, I was
wrong.

Will
--

In article cb220735-76a5-402f-a53f-
, says...

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))


You may also remember that about that time he gave you clue about the
reliability of current models forecasting past tropical/sub-tropical
transitions. He was right to express "mild amusement" at your mis-placed
confidence in your forecast (And indeed, it did turn out to be one of
your misses).

That was the forecast you made that tried to forecast past the
transition of hurricane Igor, iirc.

On this occasion, Irene is undergoing transition just now and Jose is
expected to do so soon, and again Will is trying to give you clue. You
really shouldn't be so flippant when he does so.



Found the post.

--
Alan LeHun

On Aug 29, 1:11*am, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article cb220735-76a5-402f-a53f-
, says...

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))

You may also remember that about that time he gave you clue about the
reliability of current models forecasting past tropical/sub-tropical
transitions. He was right to express "mild amusement" at your mis-placed
confidence in your forecast (And indeed, it did turn out to be one of
your misses).

That was the forecast you made that tried to forecast past the
transition of hurricane Igor, iirc.

On this occasion, Irene is undergoing transition just now and Jose is
expected to do so soon, and again Will is trying to give you clue. You
really shouldn't be so flippant when he does so.

Found the post.

--
Alan LeHun

"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. "Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.
The interactions are far too complex. Prof Sir Brian Hoskins has been
instrumental in the MetO (See the current issue of "Barometer") in
making sure that the business targets for the MetO do not go beyoind
the science required to fulfil them. I feel exactly the same way about
individual's forecasting not going beyond what is presently published
science and I've been vocal on here in cautioning against people
extrapolating present knowledge further that it should be, in an
attempt to infer integrity to their forecasts. That's exactly what
Will did last year in talking about the effects of extra-tropical
depressions. I'd rather go to source, Alan and not simply believe
someone else and I'd counsel you to do the same.

PS In 7 years, 20% of my forecasts have been incorrect and the one
where I forecast anticyclonic conditions on 29th Sept last year was a
poor one. You are right on that score.

On Aug 28, 9:42*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 28, 9:25*pm, Nick wrote:





On Aug 28, 9:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick

I'm quite sure that's what they currently show at 10 days Nick!

12z ECM:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

12z gfs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

12z JMA

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

The gfs ensembles that I posted in my opening post showed the same.

Maybe tomorrow will show something better!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Still looking very unsettled at 10 days on both the 12z gfs and the
12z ECM with both models now showing a rather nasty looking depression
at 9 days.

In article 0370c6e6-9e26-4075-a6fe-aa46e0df0054
@i21g2000yqd.googlegroups.com, says...
"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. "Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.


To be fair Paul, I am more concentrating on the effects of large extra-
tropical hurricanes on the accuracy of currently used models and yes, I
agree, the effects of extra-tropical hurricanes are not yet accurately
incorporated into model forecasts. Mostly I would guess, because the
resolution is too large to be able to model the steep pressure gradients
to an acceptable degree of accuracy.

That was like, my point.

And yes. You may not see it yourself, but your post did appear (to me
anyway, as I read it) to be a little flippant, if not downright
dismissive.

--
Alan LeHun