On Aug 29, 2:19*pm, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article 0370c6e6-9e26-4075-a6fe-aa46e0df0054
@i21g2000yqd.googlegroups.com, says...

"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. *"Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.

To be fair Paul, I am more concentrating on the effects of large extra-
tropical hurricanes on the accuracy of currently used models and yes, I
agree, the effects of extra-tropical hurricanes are not yet accurately
incorporated into model forecasts. Mostly I would guess, because the
resolution is too large to be able to model the steep pressure gradients
to an acceptable degree of accuracy.

That was like, my point.

And yes. You may not see it yourself, but your post did appear (to me
anyway, as I read it) to be a little flippant, if not downright
dismissive.

--
Alan LeHun

That's OK. Everyone has their own opinion of someone else's postings
and of the poster and our opinions differ from each other's. I
interpreted Will's comment to Col in exactly the same way as you did
mine. Col viewed it differently - which again, is fine.

On Aug 28, 9:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 28, 9:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Nick" wrote in message

...
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4
days.

Will
--

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

A NW flow around mid-Atlantic blocking on the 06z gfs. Cool and
showery. The deep depression is still shown to be affecting us at 9
days.

"Alan LeHun" wrote in message
...
In article 0370c6e6-9e26-4075-a6fe-aa46e0df0054
@i21g2000yqd.googlegroups.com, says...
"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. "Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.


To be fair Paul, I am more concentrating on the effects of large extra-
tropical hurricanes on the accuracy of currently used models and yes, I
agree, the effects of extra-tropical hurricanes are not yet accurately
incorporated into model forecasts. Mostly I would guess, because the
resolution is too large to be able to model the steep pressure gradients
to an acceptable degree of accuracy.


Didn't I say that? :-)

That was like, my point.

And yes. You may not see it yourself, but your post did appear (to me
anyway, as I read it) to be a little flippant, if not downright
dismissive.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Aug 29, 2:19 pm, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article 0370c6e6-9e26-4075-a6fe-aa46e0df0054
@i21g2000yqd.googlegroups.com, says...

"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. "Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.

To be fair Paul, I am more concentrating on the effects of large extra-
tropical hurricanes on the accuracy of currently used models and yes, I
agree, the effects of extra-tropical hurricanes are not yet accurately
incorporated into model forecasts. Mostly I would guess, because the
resolution is too large to be able to model the steep pressure gradients
to an acceptable degree of accuracy.

That was like, my point.

And yes. You may not see it yourself, but your post did appear (to me
anyway, as I read it) to be a little flippant, if not downright
dismissive.

--
Alan LeHun

That's OK. Everyone has their own opinion of someone else's postings
and of the poster and our opinions differ from each other's. I
interpreted Will's comment to Col in exactly the same way as you did
mine. Col viewed it differently - which again, is fine.
=========================================

And of the poster???
I thought you didn't like it when things got personal?

Will
--

In article ,
says...
To be fair Paul, I am more concentrating on the effects of large extra-
tropical hurricanes on the accuracy of currently used models and yes, I
agree, the effects of extra-tropical hurricanes are not yet accurately
incorporated into model forecasts. Mostly I would guess, because the
resolution is too large to be able to model the steep pressure gradients
to an acceptable degree of accuracy.


Didn't I say that? :-)


Probably. I may well have received some clue....


--
Alan LeHun

On Aug 29, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 29, 1:11*am, Alan LeHun wrote:





In article cb220735-76a5-402f-a53f-
, says...

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))

You may also remember that about that time he gave you clue about the
reliability of current models forecasting past tropical/sub-tropical
transitions. He was right to express "mild amusement" at your mis-placed
confidence in your forecast (And indeed, it did turn out to be one of
your misses).

That was the forecast you made that tried to forecast past the
transition of hurricane Igor, iirc.

On this occasion, Irene is undergoing transition just now and Jose is
expected to do so soon, and again Will is trying to give you clue. You
really shouldn't be so flippant when he does so.

Found the post.

--
Alan LeHun

"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. *"Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.
The interactions are far too complex. Prof Sir Brian Hoskins has been
instrumental in the MetO (See the current issue of "Barometer") in
making sure that the business targets for the MetO do not go beyoind
the science required to fulfil them. I feel exactly the same way about
individual's forecasting not going beyond what is presently published
science and I've been vocal on here in cautioning against people
extrapolating present knowledge further that it should be, in an
attempt to infer integrity to their forecasts. That's exactly what
Will did last year in talking about the effects of extra-tropical
depressions. I'd rather go to source, Alan and not simply believe
someone else and I'd counsel you to do the same.

PS In 7 years, 20% of my forecasts have been incorrect and the one
where I forecast anticyclonic conditions on 29th Sept last year was a
poor one. You are right on that score.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your forecasts flip and flop with the models until the event actually
arrives. We can all do that chum.

On Aug 29, 4:22*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Aug 29, 2:19 pm, Alan LeHun wrote:





In article 0370c6e6-9e26-4075-a6fe-aa46e0df0054
@i21g2000yqd.googlegroups.com, says...

"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. "Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.

To be fair Paul, I am more concentrating on the effects of large extra-
tropical hurricanes on the accuracy of currently used models and yes, I
agree, the effects of extra-tropical hurricanes are not yet accurately
incorporated into model forecasts. Mostly I would guess, because the
resolution is too large to be able to model the steep pressure gradients
to an acceptable degree of accuracy.

That was like, my point.

And yes. You may not see it yourself, but your post did appear (to me
anyway, as I read it) to be a little flippant, if not downright
dismissive.

--
Alan LeHun

That's OK. Everyone has their own opinion of someone else's postings
and of the poster and our opinions differ from each other's. I
interpreted Will's comment to Col in exactly the same way as you did
mine. Col viewed it differently - which again, is fine.
=========================================

And of the poster???
I thought you didn't like it when things got personal?

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

When things get personal Will?

You mean like calling people idiots, mocking people for failing now
and again with a forecast yet never themselves going out on a limb
further than several hours? Or do you mean personal like castigating
people for their beliefs. Nah, no-way Hose, is Dawlish ever personal.

On Aug 29, 3:52*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 28, 9:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 28, 9:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Nick" wrote in message

....
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4
days.

Will
--

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

A NW flow around mid-Atlantic blocking on the 06z gfs. Cool and
showery. The deep depression is still shown to be affecting us at 9
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Last night's appearance of high pressure ruined any consistency in the
forecast. Now we have divergence between the two models, gfs
suggesting the possibility of some blocking and ECM more unsettled at
10 days. No consistency and no agreement at present = no forecast.

= no ****ing idea
= lying cheat

On 30/08/2011 10:16 AM, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 29, 3:52 pm, wrote:
No consistency and no agreement at present = no forecast.

On Aug 30, 10:16*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 29, 3:52*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 28, 9:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 28, 9:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Nick" wrote in message

...
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4
days.

Will
--

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

A NW flow around mid-Atlantic blocking on the 06z gfs. Cool and
showery. The deep depression is still shown to be affecting us at 9
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Last night's appearance of high pressure ruined any consistency in the
forecast. Now we have divergence between the two models, gfs
suggesting the possibility of some blocking and ECM more unsettled at
10 days. No consistency and no agreement at present = no forecast.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Now why didn't you forecast that?