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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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On Aug 30, 10:16*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 29, 3:52*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 28, 9:46*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 28, 9:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote: "Nick" wrote in message ... On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote: All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk on the wilder side after this coming week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess= Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south. Nick =============================== With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4 days. Will -- Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then. I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - A NW flow around mid-Atlantic blocking on the 06z gfs. Cool and showery. The deep depression is still shown to be affecting us at 9 days.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Last night's appearance of high pressure ruined any consistency in the forecast. Now we have divergence between the two models, gfs suggesting the possibility of some blocking and ECM more unsettled at 10 days. No consistency and no agreement at present = no forecast.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Again, agreement on the weather being very unsettled, wet and windy at T240. See if the agreement persists until tomorrow. |
#22
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On Aug 28, 9:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk on the wilder side after this coming week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess= It's worth highlighting the ones that get away, as well. Had I forecast this, it would have been a good forecast, but the models just would not keep the agreement, or the consistency and if you read back in the discussion, by the evening of the next day, the models had a dalliance with high pressure. That ruined the forecast, as the return to unsettled and cool on the models was only at 8 days and that's no good to me. I wish I could factor these changes into my forecasts and spot when a change from what I'm commenting on is in fact a red herring, as the suggestion of the establishment of high pressure subsequently proved to be, but I simply can't. All this ends up is past commentary that ended up pretty correct, but it certainly doesn't qualify as a successful forecast! |
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