On Aug 30, 10:16*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 29, 3:52*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 28, 9:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 28, 9:35*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Nick" wrote in message

...
On Aug 28, 9:15 pm, Dawlish wrote:

All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Are you sure? If anything the latest ECM runs seem to indicate it will
be more settled than it was looking a day or two ago! The deep low
later this week seems to be weakening, and the older two of the three
latest ECM runs indicate a high finally arriving for that time. Even
the latest ECM 12Z appears to show conditions no worse than this
weekend, and better than the last 10 days, for the south.

Nick
===============================

With Irene presently on the charts I would say that there is a lot more
uncertainty than normal. One may see inter-model consistency but that will
mean nothing since it will be the fine details of ex Irene's interaction
with the mid-latitude jet that will be key. I would say that no operational
global model yet has the vertical or horizontal resolution capable of
modelling that interaction accurately. Confidence has to be very low after 4
days.

Will
--

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

A NW flow around mid-Atlantic blocking on the 06z gfs. Cool and
showery. The deep depression is still shown to be affecting us at 9
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Last night's appearance of high pressure ruined any consistency in the
forecast. Now we have divergence between the two models, gfs
suggesting the possibility of some blocking and ECM more unsettled at
10 days. No consistency and no agreement at present = no forecast.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Again, agreement on the weather being very unsettled, wet and windy at
T240. See if the agreement persists until tomorrow.

On Aug 28, 9:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
All models agree; it's just the consistency I'm now looking for. The
end of the first week in September appears to be going to take a walk
on the wilder side after this coming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

It's worth highlighting the ones that get away, as well. Had I
forecast this, it would have been a good forecast, but the models just
would not keep the agreement, or the consistency and if you read back
in the discussion, by the evening of the next day, the models had a
dalliance with high pressure. That ruined the forecast, as the return
to unsettled and cool on the models was only at 8 days and that's no
good to me.

I wish I could factor these changes into my forecasts and spot when a
change from what I'm commenting on is in fact a red herring, as the
suggestion of the establishment of high pressure subsequently proved
to be, but I simply can't. All this ends up is past commentary that
ended up pretty correct, but it certainly doesn't qualify as a
successful forecast!