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Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey business, do you? |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 7:01�pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47Â*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey �business, do you? Nice La Nina shaping up for early next year.... CK |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
talking out his arse you mean.
and who are these coldies? year 3 in junior school? On 17/10/2011 6:01 PM, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey business, do you? |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 6:01*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey *business, do you? That's why I call using one model run as any kind of predictive tool "model fluff" and it is exactly what people like you do and what you did only a week ago. I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter, but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! again, this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals who like the cold, based on single model runs. *)) Don't you just love it when someone like Lawrence falls headlong into the trap. laughing - that really is funny |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 7:44*pm, Natsman wrote:
On Oct 17, 7:01 pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey business, do you? Nice La Nina shaping up for early next year.... CK- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - "Nice"? What would that mean then? |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 8:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 6:01*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey *business, do you? That's why I call using one model run as any kind of predictive tool "model fluff" and it is exactly what people like you do and what you did only a week ago. I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter, but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! *again, this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals who like the cold, based on single model runs. *)) Don't you just love it when someone like Lawrence falls headlong into the trap. laughing - that really is funny- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Too late to wriggle out now you are justreinforcing your ludicrous behaviour I mean if what you're saying is true then that what make you look very childish; either way your exposed a tad more a pompous vainglorious twerp. The sort of man who wears out mirrors. the David Hassledolt of ukSci blather It also begs the questionl if you are so dismissive of one model run why bleedin' mention iit then in the first place; covering all bases are we? In fact as natsman points out were are in for one heck of an La Nina, but a cooling planet doesn't mean that our winter will be cold but the odds are a hell of a lot better. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 9:52*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 17, 8:41*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 6:01*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png Now who was it who said only recently. "gfs model fluff at 12 days. Just shows how little you know about trying to forecast at distance, using a single model run, I'm afraid. *)) " Oh yes it was you LOL Talking out yer keyboard as usual. You really don't get the model malarkey *business, do you? That's why I call using one model run as any kind of predictive tool "model fluff" and it is exactly what people like you do and what you did only a week ago. I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter, but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! *again, this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals who like the cold, based on single model runs. *)) Don't you just love it when someone like Lawrence falls headlong into the trap. laughing - that really is funny- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Too late to wriggle out now you are justreinforcing your ludicrous behaviour I mean if what you're saying is true then that what make you look very childish; either way your exposed a tad more a pompous vainglorious twerp. The sort of man who wears out mirrors. the David Hassledolt of ukSci blather It also begs the questionl if you are so dismissive of one model run why bleedin' mention iit then in the first place; covering all bases are we? In fact as natsman points out were are in for one heck of an La Nina, but a cooling planet doesn't mean that our winter will be cold but the odds are a hell of a lot better.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Sure Lawrence, sure. keep up the abuse, it's hilarious. still laughing at Lawrence, falling headlong into the one-run trap Read about the possibilities of a double-dip La Nina here. Especially look at slide 27 and the spread of the predictive models (The NCEP, that NOAA use for their ENSO forecasts is only one of 24). Then think; if we've had 17 consecutive months of below average temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, how can global temperatures have stayed in the top 10 warmest for their respective months for almost every single month during that time, in all 5 temperature series, without a major positive forcing balancing the global cooling effects of a La Nina? Then think; what is the positive atmospheric temperature forcing that is likely to be, that is keeping those temperatures high, despite the plethora of current negaitive forcings (including 17 months of La Nina conditions?) Hard questions Lawrence aren't they? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf "A cooling planet" Why does not a single scientific institution *in the world* agree with you that the global temperature trend is downward? Odd that isn't it? |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
In article
, Dawlish writes: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Even should the easterlies occur, it would pretty exceptional for them to produce anything really cold so early in the season. -- John Hall "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 10:17*am, John Hall wrote:
Even should the easterlies occur, it would pretty exceptional for them to produce anything really cold so early in the season. -- ================================================== = Indeed. In any case, EC deterministic has been trending more SE'ly than E'ly towards T+240, and GFS 06 has as well, for what either of them are worth (with that tendency in ensembles). GFS still very volatile of course at 10-15 days, now with a completely different nicely mobile set up on 06 issue, which I have no doubt will flip again. Stephen. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death then don't read the posts. It's that simple. As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh why would you post this thread headliner below. "Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??" seems rather illogical to me. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 10:17*am, John Hall wrote:
In article , *Dawlish writes: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Even should the easterlies occur, it would pretty exceptional for them to produce anything really cold so early in the season. -- John Hall * * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism * * * * * * * by those who have not got it." * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Of course; it is only October. A battleground appears the more likely outcome. See what the ECM 12z turns up. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't read the posts. It's that simple. As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh why would you post this thread headliner below. "Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??" seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Hilarious. laughing |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
just couldnt help a long range taking a dig at Will could you?
fluffing coward. On 17/10/2011 8:41 PM, Dawlish wrote: I'd hope that would be a lesson for the winter, but I doubt it will and we'll see the "EASTERLIES!!!!!!!!! again, this winter, after a single model run - even from MetO professionals who like the cold, based on single model runs. *)) |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
oh we know you are.
always talkin out of youre arse, you know, the crack that spews all your fluff on here. bum fluff. On 18/10/2011 7:51 PM, Dawlish wrote: Hilarious.laughing |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 7:51*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't read the posts. It's that simple. As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh why would you post this thread headliner below. "Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??" seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Hilarious. laughing- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - You are a failed teacher who's turned their hand to school inspection or consultation, who ironically tries to get schools past the bureaucratic idiots like yourself who now run this country. That explains why you have the mentality of a traffic warden with a slight learning disability; because that is your level, someone who would have thrived in the Stasi. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 11:16*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 18, 7:51*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't read the posts. It's that simple. As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh why would you post this thread headliner below. "Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??" seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Hilarious. laughing- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - You are a failed teacher who's turned their hand to school inspection or consultation, who ironically tries to *get schools past the bureaucratic idiots like yourself who now run this country. That explains *why you have the mentality of a traffic warden with a slight learning disability; *because that is your level, someone who would have thrived in the Stasi.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Just abuse. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 18, 11:55*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, *wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
In article ,
Adam Lea writes: Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) Yep. I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. I still love snow, even though I can remember those relatively snowy decades. I'm hard put to come up with a convincing rational reason though, especially since having slipped over twice in one day on hard-packed snow turned into ice back in December 2009 and been fortunate not to break any bones. -- John Hall "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
"Adam Lea" wrote in message ... On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. -------------------------------- Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and 1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills. So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and damp in the winter. Roger Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 6:19*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:16*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 18, 7:51*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 5:36*pm, Lawrence13 wrote: On Oct 18, 6:29*am, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47*pm, Dawlish wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. Everything annoys you. People have all the right to get excited about easterlies at this time of year if annoys you to death *then don't read the posts. It's that simple. As for your reason for posting about the same subject yesterday, why it's just plain pathetic blather from the king of blatherer's. I mean if you are so sickened by seeing posts about Easterlies then why oh why would you post this thread headliner below. "Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??" seems rather illogical to me.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Hilarious. laughing- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - You are a failed teacher who's turned their hand to school inspection or consultation, who ironically tries to *get schools past the bureaucratic idiots like yourself who now run this country. That explains *why you have the mentality of a traffic warden with a slight learning disability; *because that is your level, someone who would have thrived in the Stasi.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Just abuse.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Yes it was . Accept my humble apologies . |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55*pm, Adam Lea wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, *wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Will enjoys the cold and is biased towards it which is natural but he is still a professional and many here although they might moan when a forecast doesn't quite pan out would miss Will's input greatly . You seem to feel the need to show disrespect to everyone on this group if they don't see things your way-why do you do that? Other people have disagreed on here all the time but they don't seem to do it with a sneer on their face. Is that how you mean to come across or are you tragically misunderstood? One thing is certain though. When there is a sniff of interesting weather on the horizon people will be seeking out Will's posts -not yours. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 11:32*am, "Roger Smith" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message ... On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam *wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, * *wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. -------------------------------- Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and 1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills. So I do not look forward to it. *For me, much better if it is mild and damp in the winter. Roger Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I agree totally with your sentiments.............but I still love winter and the colder the better. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 8:34*am, Adam Lea wrote:
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam *wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, * *wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a cold decade. If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 10:36*am, John Hall wrote:
In article , *Adam Lea writes: Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) Yep. I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. I still love snow, even though I can remember those relatively snowy decades. I'm hard put to come up with a convincing rational reason though, especially since having slipped over twice in one day on hard-packed snow turned into ice back in December 2009 and been fortunate not to break any bones. -- John Hall * * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism * * * * * * * by those who have not got it." * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw Look at poor Dr Atkins of the Atkins diet fame: He slipped over on ice on his way to his New York office hit his head and never recovered. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
In article
, Lawrence13 writes: There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a cold decade. Going by your next two sentences, did you mean the 1970s? If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London. And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and 1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding evening had been for it to do so). In our part of the world both the 1960s and 1980s taken as a whole were snowier than the 1970s, in spite of 1978-9. -- John Hall "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
"John Hall" wrote in message ... In article , Lawrence13 writes: There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a cold decade. Going by your next two sentences, did you mean the 1970s? If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London. And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and 1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding evening had been for it to do so). Yes, I've heard about that. It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have been on suicide watch when that one failed to happen :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 7:09*pm, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message ... In article , Lawrence13 writes: There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a cold decade. Going by your next two sentences, did you mean the 1970s? If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London. And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and 1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding evening had been for it to do so). Yes, I've heard about that. It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have been on suicide watch when that one failed to happen :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - How do you know I wasn't and I'm talking from beyond the grave whooooooo. and no replies saying that you sound like you are ;-) |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 6:04*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 19, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 11:55*pm, Adam Lea wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, *wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Will enjoys the cold and is biased towards it *which is natural but he is still a professional and many here although they might moan when a forecast doesn't quite pan out would miss Will's input *greatly . You seem to feel the need to show disrespect to everyone on this group if they don't see things your way-why do you do that? Other people have disagreed on here all the time but they don't seem to do it with a sneer on their face. Is that how you mean to come across or are you tragically misunderstood? One thing is certain though. When there is a sniff of interesting weather on the horizon people will be seeking out Will's posts -not yours.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Nor my posts I should have said . By the way the last person that read one of my posts; have they come of section yet? |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
Dawlish wrote:
Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Well I'm a 'coldie' but I'd like to think I'm one who has reasonable expectations and doesn't get carried away with T+240 and beyond GFS charts. Yes, they are interesting, but I'd like to see consistency in the models at 7 days, preferably 5 days out before commiting myself to getting 'excited' :) -- Col - Toys kept inside the pram where they belong..... Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Oct 19, 6:43*pm, John Hall wrote:
And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and 1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding evening had been for it to do so). ========================= I remember that '78 blizzard vividly. A number of us were on a geology field trip staying in a hostel somewhere near Watchet and Blue Anchor in Somerset, in an adjunct to the main building. Aftrer what was evidently serious snowfall and drifting overnight we were awoken by the sound of shovels digging us out of a drift that had almost reached the top of the door. With all the geology being covered in snow and ice we didn't achieve much. Nice pubs, though. Stephen. |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
Lawrence13 wrote:
On Oct 19, 7:09 pm, "Col" wrote: Yes, I've heard about that. It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have been on suicide watch when that one failed to happen :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - How do you know I wasn't and I'm talking from beyond the grave whooooooo. and no replies saying that you sound like you are ;-) Just the one foot, just the one :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On 19/10/11 11:32, Roger Smith wrote:
"Adam wrote in message ... On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. -------------------------------- Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and 1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills. So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and damp in the winter. Roger Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks. Yes I do have a conflict of interest between enjoying a snowy landscape and the crunching under my feet, and detesting the disruption to life and pitying those who, unlike me, can't get outdoors for fear of falling. Last December was a nightmare for trying to get to work, 2-3 weeks of cycling precariously (on studded tyres) along untreated minor roads up and down hills. So yes, I appreciate the problems it causes. It doesn't help that the local authorities in the SE appear to have a can't be arsed attitude when it comes to dealing with ice and snow on the roads. As far as heating bills go, have you considered this: http://www.eonenergy.com/At-Home/Pro...-Gas/StayWarm/ |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
again, a cowardly blow at Will, whos not even involved in the thread.
showing signs of stalking again, Will and Lawrence watch out, theres a fluff magent about. kiss kiss yuk reported to mr google anyway On 19/10/2011 6:28 AM, Dawlish wrote: That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
"Adam Lea" wrote in message ... On 19/10/11 11:32, Roger Smith wrote: "Adam wrote in message ... On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam wrote: On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote: On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, wrote: Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models in January - even if it was for just one run on each!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground conditions. PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast! 2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see. That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter? *)) Speculation is part of the fun though. :-) I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought. -------------------------------- Adam, having seen enough snow to last a lifetime (I grew up in Kent and 1962/3 was first year at Uni) and agreeing that the white stuff transforms the appearance of the outside world I have to say that it does nothing but harm to the general quality of life and the level of heating bills. So I do not look forward to it. For me, much better if it is mild and damp in the winter. Roger Still sunny in Farnborough, as it has seemingly been for weeks. Yes I do have a conflict of interest between enjoying a snowy landscape and the crunching under my feet, and detesting the disruption to life and pitying those who, unlike me, can't get outdoors for fear of falling. Last December was a nightmare for trying to get to work, 2-3 weeks of cycling precariously (on studded tyres) along untreated minor roads up and down hills. So yes, I appreciate the problems it causes. It doesn't help that the local authorities in the SE appear to have a can't be arsed attitude when it comes to dealing with ice and snow on the roads. As far as heating bills go, have you considered this: http://www.eonenergy.com/At-Home/Pro...-Gas/StayWarm/ The house has too many bedrooms. And there are many competing fixed price deals on the market, not just for the over-60s. Regards, Roger |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Wed, 19 Oct 2011 19:09:02 +0100, Col wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message ... And in Surrey too. The winters from 1970-1 to 1975-6 were all mild, and 1974-5 was exceptionally so. Then the winters turned successively colder over the next three years. February 1978 had a notable blizzard in the SW (probably the worst in that region since March, 1891), but the snow didn't reach Surrey or London (even though the forecast on the preceding evening had been for it to do so). Yes, I've heard about that. It's a good job this group didn't exist back then, Lawrence would have been on suicide watch when that one failed to happen :) I recall a similar blizzard near that time but 1978 would have been too early. I reckon the one I'm thinking of would have happened a year later. Whatever year it was, I took wellington boots to work in the morning so as to be ready for the trudge home through the deep snow. As soon as I saw the charts in the Met Office entrance hall, I thought, "it ain't gonna happen!" According to the thickness pattern, the low appeared to be situated in the left exit of one jet and the right entrance to another and would be steered SE into France and miss us. Which is what happened. A while later, I reran analyses and forecasts, modifying data, and produced a report on what I'd found which, if I remember rightly, was very little. Although it was obvious to me from the charts that morning that the snow would miss us, I couldn't tweak the data going into the Rectangle model to provide the correct answer. -- Graham Davis, Bracknell Whilst it's true that money can't buy you happiness, at least you can be miserable in comfort. Newsreader for Windows, Mac, Unix family: http://pan.rebelbase.com/ |
Easterlies at T240 with a Scandinavian High??
On Mon, 17 Oct 2011 22:29:11 -0700, Dawlish wrote:
PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting "EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become properly interested. It's jolly kind of you to devote yourself to keeping us safe from all these disreputable people: People who say they can produce accurate seasonal forecasts; Excitable coldies; People who say they can forecast at 10 days; People who say the world isn't warming, and more, I'm sure. Of course there will be people who say that you are tedious and repetitive, but *you know better than them*, they don't have your intelligence and vision. So shrug off the sneers and stand up for all those people who don't have the benefit of being you. I for one am jolly pleased that you've been put in charge of this group! |
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