On Nov 20, 7:19*pm, Dawlish wrote:
I always leave 3 days before extending forecasts of particular
conditions.

Continued agreement between the gfs and the ECM and consistency over
the last 24 hours in both models, which shows them shying away from
end-of-month meridionality, leaves me able to give the following 10-
day forecast with 80% confidence.

**On 30th Nov. at T+240, the UK will be experiencing Atlantic weather.
The predominant wind direction will be between S and NW and most areas
will be still experiencing conditions which show no particularly cold
weather, though it will certainly feel colder than the current mild
conditions, especially in any wind. The CET will be in close to record
territory, but I doubt it will set a new record. Pressure will be
higher to the south of the UK, than to our north and frosts will be
limited to transient ridges of high pressure, in sheltered areas, when
skies may clear. Any lying snow will be limited to highest hills. **

Into winter after this forecast's outcome date, but we'll not see the
bitter cold of last year's end of November/start of December.


This was a good forecast. It was clear to me, from the models, that we
would not be experiencing any particular cold today, from a viewpoint
back on 20/11/11 and that Atlantic zonal weather would continue to be
in charge.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.p...lang=en&map=UK

88/110 forecasts correct: 80% forecast accuracy.