I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster. It
has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's almost as
if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut off that part
of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to the east of
Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air is like a tap
opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic baroclinicity in
the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east. Over time the colder
air has come further south and now Scotland is set to turn very cold, though
still with milder interludes in the mobility. The big question is will a
mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream trough extension over Canada. All
eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it seems for the time being at least we are
looking at cold mobility with lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold
of, especially, but not exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--

On Dec 3, 10:12*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster. It
has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's almost as
if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut off that part
of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to the east of
Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air is like a tap
opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic baroclinicity in
the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east. Over time the colder
air has come further south and now Scotland is set to turn very cold, though
still with milder interludes in the mobility. The big question is will a
mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream trough extension over Canada. All
eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it seems for the time being at least we are
looking at cold mobility with lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold
of, especially, but not exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--

Thanks for the post, Will.

Appreciated.

Steve R.
Swansea

On Dec 3, 10:12*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster. It
has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's almost as
if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut off that part
of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to the east of
Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air is like a tap
opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic baroclinicity in
the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east. Over time the colder
air has come further south and now Scotland is set to turn very cold, though
still with milder interludes in the mobility. The big question is will a
mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream trough extension over Canada. All
eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it seems for the time being at least we are
looking at cold mobility with lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold
of, especially, but not exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--

Oh no! The first of the; "if only we could tap into the cold to
our......" posts of the winter. *)) There's always cold in the Arctic/
over Asia/over Greenland in December. Oddly, it is there every year at
this time - and its always only 2000 miles (ish) away. Sometimes we
"tap into it" - as per this time last year. Most times it sits there,
being tantalising and driving the people mad who constantly hope for
the "floodgate" to open. The rest of us ignore it, until it actually
looks like it might! *))

Actually, the big queston is really whether the high pressure which is
presently to our SW will migrate eastwards and settle over Europe to
give us the mild Christmas that many are hoping for, so they can
travel easily to see family and friends (no English lowland snow over
the weekend of the 16-18th, please), or jet off to the sun (I wish!)
without airports being closed.

Eskimo Will wrote:
I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster.
It has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's
almost as if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut
off that part of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to
the east of Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air
is like a tap opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic
baroclinicity in the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east.
Over time the colder air has come further south and now Scotland is set
to turn very cold, though still with milder interludes in the mobility.
The big question is will a mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream
trough extension over Canada. All eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it
seems for the time being at least we are looking at cold mobility with
lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold of, especially, but not
exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--

-------------------
So what I said last week is still a possibility then Will?
"Looking at the predicted chilly strong W/NW flow at the start of next
week I was thinking that if any blustery showers developed they could
briefly fall as sleet/snow even in the S.E as temps drop during the showers?
Dave " ;-)

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message ...

I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster. It
has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's almost as
if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut off that part
of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to the east of
Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air is like a tap
opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic baroclinicity in
the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east. Over time the colder
air has come further south and now Scotland is set to turn very cold, though
still with milder interludes in the mobility. The big question is will a
mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream trough extension over Canada. All
eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it seems for the time being at least we are
looking at cold mobility with lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold
of, especially, but not exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--
================================================== ===

Thanks for sharing that, Will, and it's a very interesting piece of
information. Makes the model watching all the more fun now.

If you can share any more similar observations or discussions I'm sure many
on here would appreciate your musings!


Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

On 03/12/2011 11:41, Joe Whyte wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message ...

I was discussing this at work earlier this week with a Chief forecaster. It
has been pretty persistent for a few weeks now, never moving. It's
almost as
if the progressive Rossby pattern (still spot on Len!) has cut off that
part
of the Arctic leaving it to cool and cool .. Seas just to the east of
Greenland are now cold and this reservoir of deep cold air is like a tap
opening up and flooding south to re-inforce the Atlantic baroclinicity in
the cold westerly, preventing blocking further east. Over time the colder
air has come further south and now Scotland is set to turn very cold,
though
still with milder interludes in the mobility. The big question is will a
mid-Atlantic ridge amplify due to upstream trough extension over Canada.
All
eyes to the Pacific I guess. So it seems for the time being at least we are
looking at cold mobility with lots of fascinating wintry detail to get hold
of, especially, but not exclusively in northern areas!

Ciao, winter weather watchers :-)

Will
--
================================================== ===

Thanks for sharing that, Will, and it's a very interesting piece of
information. Makes the model watching all the more fun now.

If you can share any more similar observations or discussions I'm sure
many on here would appreciate your musings!


Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

I certainly would appreciate your musings, Will. Please just ignore the
destructive children that always think they are right and should have
their own way. The rest of us would like to see this newsgroup return to
what it once was and your musings are a wonderful way of achieving this.

--
Howard Neil

Howard Neil wrote:
I certainly would appreciate your musings, Will. Please just ignore the
destructive children that always think they are right and should have
their own way. The rest of us would like to see this newsgroup return to
what it once was and your musings are a wonderful way of achieving this.

Ditto - Will makes the Annual Snow Watch fun, whereas Dawlish just drains
all the fun out of an interesting hobby.

On Dec 3, 12:46*pm, Nick Humphries
wrote:
Howard Neil wrote:
I certainly would appreciate your musings, Will. Please just ignore the
destructive children that always think they are right and should have
their own way. The rest of us would like to see this newsgroup return to
what it once was and your musings are a wonderful way of achieving this..

Ditto - Will makes the Annual Snow Watch fun, whereas Dawlish just drains
all the fun out of an interesting hobby.

If people find reality "not fun", there's nothing I'm going to do
about that. There are posts every winter about "tapping into cold"
that is sitting somewhere and some of us just shake our heads. I'm one
of them and I don't intend to change, until I actually see a chance of
it happening. Then you'll be able to trust what I say with 80%
certainty. You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more. If people enjoy it; great, but don't be too
quick to cticise when someone offers the other side of the coin -
which may actually be the probability. I see nothing wrong with
presenting the probable, or calling the unlikely, unlikely. Some find
that *very* hard to deal with in winter, though. *))

Dawlish wrote:
You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more.

Well, quite. The fun is in the tracking, the commentary, and watching
those probabilities grow and shrink. And whilst the points you raise
may be valid ones, your personality negates any contribution you make.

But I've seen your type before, I've seen the damage your type makes
to forums, and I fully expect you to neither agree nor understand that
you are being antisociable. And as this is Usenet, there's nothing to
be done about that.

On Dec 3, 12:51*pm, Dawlish wrote:

If people find reality "not fun", there's nothing I'm going to do
about that. There are posts every winter about "tapping into cold"...

==============================

If Will had said anything about the UK "tapping into cold" there might
be the germ of a point here; but he didn't. He identified that the
anomalously cold air in and around Greenland is reinforcing the
baroclinicity that is maintaining zonality and giving us chilly flows
from the westerly quarter. I'd only mildly debate "very cold" rather
than "cold" for Scotland (with, as he says, milder interludes).

He further speculated as to whether -- or not -- there is a
possibility of strong Atlantic ridging, the first signs of which may
be identified from the Pacific via amplified Canadian troughing. This
is something that we all as forecasters are looking at. Apologies to
everyone else for feeling the need to re-iterate this.

My own speculative thoughts are that we may see ridging rather closer
to the UK in the extended medium range (through mid-month), so perhaps
becoming a little less cold for a while (fluctuating to average near a
little above normal nationally) after the upcoming coldness. Then,
even more speculatively, maybe colder again end of December with
ridging farther west.

I have to say that these cold and showery westerly types, while
interesting, are often particularly challenging and difficult for
certain industry sectors. Anyone who has forecast for winter roads
would probably agree.

Stephen.