Graham wrote:
-----------------------------
I take it the January cold spell is off the agenda then, for the south
at least, although to me it looks like quite sudden shifts could still
take place which would explain the all round uncertainty It seems that
UKMO are concentrating on February. More jam tomorrow? Shame the
frosty highs couldn't have kept going a bit longer.


Dave was there ever a cold spell on the agenda, after all it is only mid
winter
January will end up another very mild winter month and I can see
February going the same way.
If I remember didn't the warmest winter on record (2007) follow the
warmest autumn (2006) on record.
The April that followed that lot was one of the best ever, warmest on
record at the time with over 200 sun hours, only bettered by April 2011
So spring may not be that bad.
Maybe the 2nd warmest Autumn on record (2011) is going to be followed by
the 2nd warmest Winter on record??
If we get another April like 2007 or 2011, I don't mind at all


Graham
-------------------------------------
Not really in my opinion Graham although one is always mooted on here at
some stage by quite a few of us - after all it is winter! I think given
my location it would be quite unusual to have two consecutive calendar
years with no snow lying , which could happen should we have a mild
November and December this year.
Dave

On Jan 19, 9:50*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Eskimo Will wrote:
I think this summarises the present setup reasonably well.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2...es-for-the-sta...

Next week, cold air struggles to come south but we do still end up with
an upper trough/low pressure over UK with a tricky rain/sleet/snow mix.

Wow the stratwarm has gone ballistic at 10hpa.
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/merra/...

Zonal wind has also decreased markedly
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/merra/...

Going to be an interesting time, one way or the other!

Ciao,

Will
--

-----------------------------
I take it the January cold spell is off the agenda then, for the south
at least, although to me it looks like quite sudden shifts could still
take place which would explain the all round uncertainty It seems that
UKMO are concentrating on February. More jam tomorrow? Shame the frosty
highs couldn't have kept going a bit longer.
Dave

Today's charts could grab a few coldies' interest Dave!

"Stan" wrote in message
...
On 19/01/2012 5:36 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
I think this summarises the present setup reasonably well.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2...t-of-february/


Next week, cold air struggles to come south but we do still end up with
an upper trough/low pressure over UK with a tricky rain/sleet/snow mix.

Wow the stratwarm has gone ballistic at 10hpa.
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf


Zonal wind has also decreased markedly
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf


Going to be an interesting time, one way or the other!

Ciao,

Will
--


its doesnt look too 50/50 based on tonights runs
pendulum swung towards mild significantly


Pendulum swung again on 00Z runs in favour of a cold block. The intensity
and duration of the cold is now the question I'd say. Is it going to be a
"mellow" E to SE'ly with a lot of dry sunny weather (except in Essex which
will be plagued by stratus) and temperatures 2-4C, or is it going to be a
"full on" cyclonic NE'ly with widespread snow. Or is it going to be a high
developing over southern Britain with frosty nights breaking down from the
NW with mild SW winds returning. My money at present is on the "mellow" and
Essex stratus :-)
I love the drama of winter, the next MetO update is going to be interesting.

Will
--
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 20/01/2012 9:47 AM, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Stan" wrote in message
...
On 19/01/2012 5:36 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
I think this summarises the present setup reasonably well.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2...t-of-february/



Next week, cold air struggles to come south but we do still end up with
an upper trough/low pressure over UK with a tricky rain/sleet/snow mix.

Wow the stratwarm has gone ballistic at 10hpa.
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf



Zonal wind has also decreased markedly
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf



Going to be an interesting time, one way or the other!

Ciao,

Will
--


its doesnt look too 50/50 based on tonights runs
pendulum swung towards mild significantly


Pendulum swung again on 00Z runs in favour of a cold block. The
intensity and duration of the cold is now the question I'd say. Is it
going to be a "mellow" E to SE'ly with a lot of dry sunny weather
(except in Essex which will be plagued by stratus) and temperatures
2-4C, or is it going to be a "full on" cyclonic NE'ly with widespread
snow. Or is it going to be a high developing over southern Britain with
frosty nights breaking down from the NW with mild SW winds returning. My
money at present is on the "mellow" and Essex stratus :-)
I love the drama of winter, the next MetO update is going to be
interesting.

Will
--
and the pendulum swings back to mild on 12z ECM

In article ,
Stan writes:
On 20/01/2012 9:47 AM, Eskimo Will wrote:

Pendulum swung again on 00Z runs in favour of a cold block. The
intensity and duration of the cold is now the question I'd say. Is it
going to be a "mellow" E to SE'ly with a lot of dry sunny weather
(except in Essex which will be plagued by stratus) and temperatures
2-4C, or is it going to be a "full on" cyclonic NE'ly with widespread
snow. Or is it going to be a high developing over southern Britain with
frosty nights breaking down from the NW with mild SW winds returning. My
money at present is on the "mellow" and Essex stratus :-)
I love the drama of winter, the next MetO update is going to be
interesting.

and the pendulum swings back to mild on 12z ECM


Only on the operational run. For the first time the mean pressure chart
for all ensemble members suggests that for the first time the blocked
members have a narrow majority.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw