I'm not suggesting for one minute that this is what will or is even
likely to happen after next week, but it represents a true
Rusian/Scandinavian HP influencing us, the like of which we have not
seen for a very long time , including the last two years. I suspect it
is this kind of scenario though, that leads the UKMO in its outlook, to
reserve the right to have cold as an option.
Dave

On 22/01/2012 5:23 PM, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I'm not suggesting for one minute that this is what will or is even
likely to happen after next week, but it represents a true
Rusian/Scandinavian HP influencing us, the like of which we have not
seen for a very long time , including the last two years. I suspect it
is this kind of scenario though, that leads the UKMO in its outlook, to
reserve the right to have cold as an option.
Dave

its 10 days away
anyway its a optical illusion or outlier as the call them these days

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
I'm not suggesting for one minute that this is what will or is even likely
to happen after next week, but it represents a true Rusian/Scandinavian HP
influencing us, the like of which we have not seen for a very long time ,
including the last two years. I suspect it is this kind of scenario
though, that leads the UKMO in its outlook, to reserve the right to have
cold as an option.
Dave


Unfortunately it is an outlier. Mind you remember the very mild outliers the
GFS OP had in the last spell?! A mouthwatering situation nevertheless.
Still, sleet and snow showers for me at altitude in the cold westerly next
thursday with sub 528 Dam air, unstable and 850s around -4C. That'll do for
starters, I have the day off work booked already, so I may take a stroll up
above 500 metres.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Stan wrote:
On 22/01/2012 5:23 PM, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I'm not suggesting for one minute that this is what will or is even
likely to happen after next week, but it represents a true
Rusian/Scandinavian HP influencing us, the like of which we have not
seen for a very long time , including the last two years. I suspect it
is this kind of scenario though, that leads the UKMO in its outlook, to
reserve the right to have cold as an option.
Dave

its 10 days away
anyway its a optical illusion or outlier as the call them these days


-------------------------------
Yes we know all that. It is just a good illustration of a situation that
once was slightly more common.

im afraid its game over
fully expecting a backtrack from ecm. ukmo is dire with indestrcible
azores high now trying to consume the uk.




On 22/01/2012 6:05 PM, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Stan wrote:
On 22/01/2012 5:23 PM, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I'm not suggesting for one minute that this is what will or is even
likely to happen after next week, but it represents a true
Rusian/Scandinavian HP influencing us, the like of which we have not
seen for a very long time , including the last two years. I suspect it
is this kind of scenario though, that leads the UKMO in its outlook, to
reserve the right to have cold as an option.
Dave

its 10 days away
anyway its a optical illusion or outlier as the call them these days


-------------------------------
Yes we know all that. It is just a good illustration of a situation that
once was slightly more common.

On 22/01/12 18:11, Stan wrote:
indestrcible
azores high now trying to consume the uk.


Is this an example of a Bartlett high situation?

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 22/01/12 18:11, Stan wrote:
indestrcible
azores high now trying to consume the uk.


Is this an example of a Bartlett high situation?


Absolutely not. A Bartlett high is a high that forms and then reforms under
a zonal WSW'ly flow with a jet stretching from Newfoundland all the way
into Scandinavia. The meanders of this jet forms ridges behind travelling
depressions which then settle over near Switzerland. They are trhen
reinforced ad-infinitum by the pattern.

The high developping from the Azores you are seeing on the charts is an area
of rising pressure behind the disrupting upper trough. Many model runs link
this area of rising pressure with the Russian high which is now the more
permanent feature. It is the trough disruption process that is causing the
uncertainty at the end of next week, e.g. how fast, UKMO is relatively slow,
GFS is fast with the disruption hence the charts appear different but all
show rising pressure over the UK with a cold slab of air entrained. Will
upstream processes in teh Atlantic cause the Scandinavian block by then to
push west, that is where the 50-50 scenario comes from. All complex and
difficult to explain in words.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 22/01/2012 6:11 PM, Stan wrote:
im afraid its game over
fully expecting a backtrack from ecm. ukmo is dire with indestrcible
azores high now trying to consume the uk.




On 22/01/2012 6:05 PM, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Stan wrote:
On 22/01/2012 5:23 PM, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I'm not suggesting for one minute that this is what will or is even
likely to happen after next week, but it represents a true
Rusian/Scandinavian HP influencing us, the like of which we have not
seen for a very long time , including the last two years. I suspect it
is this kind of scenario though, that leads the UKMO in its outlook, to
reserve the right to have cold as an option.
Dave

its 10 days away
anyway its a optical illusion or outlier as the call them these days


-------------------------------
Yes we know all that. It is just a good illustration of a situation that
once was slightly more common.

ecm leaves us in a coldish no mans land.

On Jan 22, 6:36*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message

...

On 22/01/12 18:11, Stan wrote:
*indestrcible
azores high now trying to consume the uk.

Is this an example of a Bartlett high situation?

Absolutely not. A Bartlett high is a high that forms and then reforms under
a zonal WSW'ly flow with a jet stretching from *Newfoundland all the way
into Scandinavia. The meanders of this jet forms ridges behind travelling
depressions which then settle over near Switzerland. They are trhen
reinforced ad-infinitum by the pattern.

The high developping from the Azores you are seeing on the charts is an area
of rising pressure behind the disrupting upper trough. Many model runs link
this area of rising pressure with the Russian high which is now the more
permanent feature. It is the trough disruption process that is causing the
uncertainty at the end of next week, e.g. how fast, UKMO is relatively slow,
GFS is fast with the disruption hence the charts appear different but all
show rising pressure over the UK with a cold slab of air entrained. Will
upstream processes in teh Atlantic cause the Scandinavian block by then to
push west, that is where the 50-50 scenario comes from. All complex and
difficult to explain in words.

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Funny you should mention Switzerland. Will be there for a week
starting next weekend. Base height of 1800m, skiing up to 3500m, so
also watching this evolve with interest, albeit from a slightly
different angle. I never thought I would say this, but I hope it won't
be too cold!

On 22/01/2012 6:36 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
.. Will upstream processes in teh Atlantic cause the
Scandinavian block by then to push west, that is where the 50-50
scenario comes from. All complex and difficult to explain in words.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

50/50 hmm

50% mild and sw winds, 50% very cold and snow possible

what if its neither?