Easterly now looking more certain
 

Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting in next
week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling the disruption
of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the development of the
Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in place, the recent stratwarm
has slowed the circulation as evidenced by the 150 hPa mean zonal wind at
60N and warming continuing aloft. Air is cooling quickly now over Russia. Be
careful of drawing too many inferences with 850 hPa temperature in assessing
ensembles as there is likely to be a significant undercut of cold air like a
density current moving westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution would be
the DT12Z UKMO to T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low over Denmark at
T+120, many runs have had something similar and that is the final stage of
the trough disruption process. By T+144 next Sunday it should be complete
and then it could potentially get interesting! Key thinking today was that
at any rate high pressure would develop over the UK regardless of any
easterly, but probability for a very cold easterly has increased. The army
are still in their bases though, LOL :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Easterly now looking more certain
 

On Jan 23, 5:19*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting in next
week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling the disruption
of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the development of the
Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in place, the recent stratwarm
has slowed the circulation as evidenced by the 150 hPa mean zonal wind at
60N and warming continuing aloft. Air is cooling quickly now over Russia. Be
careful of drawing too many inferences with 850 hPa temperature in assessing
ensembles as there is likely to be a significant undercut of cold air like a
density current moving westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution would be
the DT12Z UKMO to T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low over Denmark at
T+120, many runs have had something similar and that is the final stage of
the trough disruption process. By T+144 next Sunday it should be complete
and then it could potentially get interesting! Key thinking today was that
at any rate high pressure would develop over the UK regardless of any
easterly, but probability for a very cold easterly has increased. The army
are still in their bases though, LOL :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

As long as I can get to Gatwick on the 10th Feb !

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Easterly now looking more certain
 

On Jan 23, 5:19*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting in next
week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling the disruption
of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the development of the
Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in place, the recent stratwarm
has slowed the circulation as evidenced by the 150 hPa mean zonal wind at
60N and warming continuing aloft. Air is cooling quickly now over Russia. Be
careful of drawing too many inferences with 850 hPa temperature in assessing
ensembles as there is likely to be a significant undercut of cold air like a
density current moving westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution would be
the DT12Z UKMO to T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low over Denmark at
T+120, many runs have had something similar and that is the final stage of
the trough disruption process. By T+144 next Sunday it should be complete
and then it could potentially get interesting! Key thinking today was that
at any rate high pressure would develop over the UK regardless of any
easterly, but probability for a very cold easterly has increased. The army
are still in their bases though, LOL :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

You might pull it off yet, you son of a gun.

Easterly now looking more certain
 

On 23/01/2012 5:19 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting in
next week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling the
disruption of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the development
of the Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in place, the recent
stratwarm has slowed the circulation as evidenced by the 150 hPa mean
zonal wind at 60N and warming continuing aloft. Air is cooling quickly
now over Russia. Be careful of drawing too many inferences with 850 hPa
temperature in assessing ensembles as there is likely to be a
significant undercut of cold air like a density current moving
westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution would be the DT12Z UKMO to
T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low over Denmark at T+120, many runs
have had something similar and that is the final stage of the trough
disruption process. By T+144 next Sunday it should be complete and then
it could potentially get interesting! Key thinking today was that at any
rate high pressure would develop over the UK regardless of any easterly,
but probability for a very cold easterly has increased. The army are
still in their bases though, LOL :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
yes things looking up. markedly so tonight. seems like my reverse
psychology is working

i wonder if the met update will still be 50/50 tomorrow?

still, keep up the good work. your still the most repected on here and
always a great read, even when things dont come off.

cheers

Easterly now looking more certain
 

Eskimo Will wrote:
Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting
in next week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling
the disruption of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the
development of the Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in
place, the recent stratwarm has slowed the circulation as evidenced
by the 150 hPa mean zonal wind at 60N and warming continuing aloft.
Air is cooling quickly now over Russia. Be careful of drawing too
many inferences with 850 hPa temperature in assessing ensembles as
there is likely to be a significant undercut of cold air like a
density current moving westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution
would be the DT12Z UKMO to T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low
over Denmark at T+120, many runs have had something similar and that
is the final stage of the trough disruption process. By T+144 next
Sunday it should be complete and then it could potentially get
interesting! Key thinking today was that at any rate high pressure
would develop over the UK regardless of any easterly, but probability
for a very cold easterly has increased. The army are still in their
bases though, LOL :-)
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

XC Weather predicting 14mph Easterly, 2C with clear skies by midday Tuesday
down here in Kent.... I think they must read your posts Will!! ;o)

L