On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:
The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?



This one was correct. 93/113 = 80.9%.

On Feb 18, 7:59*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:









The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

This one was correct. 93/113 = 80.9%.

Well looking at the charts for 12z and 18z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn063.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png

I would say Scotland, at the very least, was under the influence of a
more polar regime originating from Greenland not the Atlantic. I would
say the forecast was at best particularly correct, but failed to
predict a short but significant cold polar outbreak. Most of the
country is under sub 528dam air at 18z for example.

,

On Feb 18, 12:37*pm, Alan wrote:
On Feb 18, 7:59*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 8, 7:38*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The consistency shown by the ECM and the fact that the gfs is a cold
outlier in the ensembles makes me confident that the colder weather
will be at an end, both for Europe and for the UK.

**at T240, on 18th February, the anticyclonic and cold conditions
presently affecting the UK will have given way to an airstream from
the Atlantic. Wind directions over most of the UK will be between
south-west and north-west and maritime air will predominate, with rain
for the west. Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-
February. *The air will have penetrated into Europe, ending the very
cold spell there."

After the middle of next week, a warming trend will have set in and by
T240, we will be looking at a completely different weather pattern to
what we see today. Snow over the next couple of days, for many in
England, before then though?

This one was correct. 93/113 = 80.9%.

Well looking at the charts for 12z and 18z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt...s/Rtavn123.png

I would say Scotland, at the very least, was under the influence of a
more polar regime originating from Greenland not the Atlantic. I would
say the forecast was at best particularly correct, but failed to
predict a short but significant cold polar outbreak. Most of the
country is under sub 528dam air at 18z for example.



Fair comment. The exact position of a front, at 10 days, is impossible
for absolutely anyone to forecast accurately and I don't try. I'd be
mad to. The front that has moveda short-lived period of Pm air,
typical of Atlantic weather as depressions pass to our north. Almost
every station in the UK presently has winds between west and north-
west; temperatures are closer to the mid-feb average than they were 10
days ago and the Atlantic air has penetrated into Europe. Good enough
for a "good" one? We have zonal, Atlantic weather and I think that is
likely to persist until the end of the month.