In the past if someone mentioned this to me as a possibility I would come
back and say that I thought it was extremely unlikely, practically
impossible. But is it? I know we have seen heat records smashed recently and
it is easy to get carried away, but you cannot deny the facts. If this
drought continues and the ground becomes bone dry then we start to get the
ingredients for a 40C. It would take a special synoptic setup though. First
of all we'd need a SE'ly to import some hot and dry tropical continental air
in early August preferably when seas are warming and insolation is still
strong. This would need a high to our east but influencing us to keep away
Atlantic fronts and cloud. Once the hot dry air is over us then the high
needs to migrate west and allow the air to settle and a large inversion to
form in the boundary layer allowing insolation to build up heat further
heating the bone dry ground. Then one day somewhere hits 40.1C. I'm
wondering if it is worth a bet? What odds would the bookies give now on such
an event? Interesting. Note that this is not a forecast but speculation on
an event that IMHO in the past two years has become more likely to happen
given the increased tendency for blocking. Yes I know recent summers have
been on the cool side and 2012 may be no different, but it is one of those
things I have a "feeling" for and I just wanted to get it off my chest.

Will (gazing thoughtfully at the sky with doom-laden music playing in the
background)
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