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Don't get carried away for next week
There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are
expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- |
Don't get carried away for next week
On 20/07/2012 08:39, Dartmoor Will wrote:
There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- Will, I am seeing that cold front finishing at different locations with each run of GFS. Do you think it will reach me, please? -- Howard Neil |
Don't get carried away for next week
On Friday, July 20, 2012 8:39:27 AM UTC+1, wrote:
There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- Yes, nothing's certain in this world, which it's why it's best to take this as they come & avoid disappointment! Down here we've already benefitted by the depressions being rather forward north. As a result Max Rain 14th 18.6 0.0 Sunny intervals little wind 15th 18.6 1.9 Sunny spells 16th 18.1 0.7 Dull & drizzly for Stithians Show 17th 19.8 1.9 Warm, muggy PM. Good surfing. High UV (8.9 Scilly) 18th 18.2 2.4 Patchy light rain 19th 19.4 0.0 http://www.sennen-cove.com/today2.htm Breezy sunny spells 20th Looks hopeful! http://www.scillyman.co.uk/Lowertown_Cam.html currently cloudless on Scilly and heading this way. No more surfing though http://www.sennen-cove.com/harbourcam.htm After all the rain a week of rather more 'normal' mixture of weather. Graham Penzance |
Don't get carried away for next week
"Howard Neil" wrote in message o.uk... On 20/07/2012 08:39, Dartmoor Will wrote: There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- Will, I am seeing that cold front finishing at different locations with each run of GFS. Do you think it will reach me, please? Yes I do. I catered for some rain on dartmoor too in my weekly forecast. Will -- -- Howard Neil -- http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- |
Don't get carried away for next week
On 20/07/2012 12:42, Dartmoor Will wrote:
"Howard Neil" wrote in message o.uk... On 20/07/2012 08:39, Dartmoor Will wrote: There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- Will, I am seeing that cold front finishing at different locations with each run of GFS. Do you think it will reach me, please? Yes I do. I catered for some rain on dartmoor too in my weekly forecast. Will -- Thanks, Will. -- Howard Neil |
Don't get carried away for next week
On Friday, July 20, 2012 8:39:27 AM UTC+1, wrote:
There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. =================== We've been discussing this sort of thing here, too. The likes of, oh let's say The Express and their usual rent-a-quote, would have us believe in a country bathed in a 'proper' 'scorching' 'heatwave' with temperatures up 35C. In fact, The Express's front page banner headline today is a simply enormous '95F'. That story goes on to say that, despite this, August will be a 'washout'. I'm not buying that either. I envisage a relatively anticylonically dominated August. Stephen. |
Don't get carried away for next week
"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message ... On Friday, July 20, 2012 8:39:27 AM UTC+1, wrote: There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. =================== We've been discussing this sort of thing here, too. The likes of, oh let's say The Express and their usual rent-a-quote, would have us believe in a country bathed in a 'proper' 'scorching' 'heatwave' with temperatures up 35C. In fact, The Express's front page banner headline today is a simply enormous '95F'. That story goes on to say that, despite this, August will be a 'washout'. I'm not buying that either. I envisage a relatively anticylonically dominated August. ================== We have to disagree there a bit Steve, I fancy it will be an unsettled and thundery August with an upper trough over us and that dratted jetstream (which affects all northern hemisphere weather in mid-latitudes) to the south of us again. But that is just extrapolating the GFS fantasy charts on a bit. We shall see. But you know what, we can forget the possible 40C now that I got so excited about back in March!!! Will -- |
Don't get carried away for next week
On Jul 20, 5:54*pm, "Dartmoor Will" wrote:
"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message ... On Friday, July 20, 2012 8:39:27 AM UTC+1, wrote: There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. =================== We've been discussing this sort of thing here, too. The likes of, oh let's say The Express and their usual rent-a-quote, would have us believe in a country bathed in a 'proper' 'scorching' 'heatwave' with temperatures up 35C. In fact, The Express's front page banner headline today is a simply enormous '95F'. That story goes on to say that, despite this, August will be a 'washout'. I'm not buying that either. I envisage a relatively anticylonically dominated August. ================== We have to disagree there a bit Steve, I fancy it will be an unsettled and thundery August with an upper trough over us and that dratted jetstream (which affects all northern hemisphere weather in mid-latitudes) to the south of us again. But that is just extrapolating the GFS fantasy charts on a bit. We shall see. But you know what, we can forget the possible 40C now that I got so excited about back in March!!! Will -- I hope not, I need something resembling a summer this year, having so far (though this week hasn't been too bad) got one either here or in Austria. That said, I don't need hot, I'd be perfectly happy with average conditions but I wouldn't want the worst summer since 1956 which I'd guess is what we'd get if the pattern of the past 6 weeks re-established itself. Thoughts on setted weather for September? October? Nick |
Don't get carried away for next week
On Friday, 20 July 2012 08:39:27 UTC+1, wrote:
There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. Hey Will, Ikmow not many here will like this; why even Anthony Watts has turned against him, but our mate Piers has also warned of heavy rain possibly reaching the opening olympic ceremony in London with 80% certainty From his website = LONDON OLYMPIC GAMES WEATHER LATEST (17/18 July) Piers spoke on LBC radio and posted on Accuweather 17th July: "...The Olympic opening ceremony could be deluged we warned in our WeatherAction forecast issued mid-June. Standard Meteorology is just NOT reliable 10 days ahead whereas our WeatherAction long range forecasts for UK & Ireland this month so far have accurately forecast the major deluges hitting England and Wales to the day. Of course as I said on LBC radio 17th July the rain we expect on 27th in England MIGHT just miss London but at this moment we remain 80% confident of rain on the ceremony and continuing through the Olympics period. See VIDEO and News links on WeatherAction site - http:// www.weatheraction.com/ displayarticle.asp?a=472&c= 5 http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- |
Don't get carried away for next week
"Lawrence13" wrote in message ... On Friday, 20 July 2012 08:39:27 UTC+1, wrote: There's a lot of talk at present about summer arriving and the media are expecting a sunny heatwave. I urge some caution. A waving cold front is expected to come wriggling down from the NW early next week. A more substantial wave is forecast as a possibility from a notoriously difficult place for models, just NE of the Azores. All it takes is for that to develop and we could have a lot of rain mid-week in some areas, especially Midlands/northern England. And then when that relaxes away a cloudy NE'ly. Take a look at 00Z GFS today 20th for the possibilities, wall to wall sunshine it is not. Flooding and heavy rain are still on the cards in places. Hey Will, Ikmow not many here will like this; why even Anthony Watts has turned against him, but our mate Piers has also warned of heavy rain possibly reaching the opening olympic ceremony in London with 80% certainty From his website = LONDON OLYMPIC GAMES WEATHER LATEST (17/18 July) Piers spoke on LBC radio and posted on Accuweather 17th July: "...The Olympic opening ceremony could be deluged we warned in our WeatherAction forecast issued mid-June. Standard Meteorology is just NOT reliable 10 days ahead whereas our WeatherAction long range forecasts for UK & Ireland this month so far have accurately forecast the major deluges hitting England and Wales to the day. Of course as I said on LBC radio 17th July the rain we expect on 27th in England MIGHT just miss London but at this moment we remain 80% confident of rain on the ceremony and continuing through the Olympics period. See VIDEO and News links on WeatherAction site - http:// www.weatheraction.com/ displayarticle.asp?a=472&c= 5 =================================== It is on a knife edge I'd say. Upper trough comes over from the west and the vorticity advection destabilises things. This encourages the slack pressure and warm area over the continent to develop into a low pressure centre which should then move north along the wind ahead of the upper trough. Long way off yet for detail, but definitely a heavy thundery rain risk. Although that is the "standard meteorology" view and takes no account of solar particles LOL. Will -- |
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