Now I'm Not One to Moan...But Really........
 

Looking at the five day forecast on UKMO website

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ which immediatly tells me where I live in case I didn't know, but thats a side issue. No it's the way that on the same page you can have glaringly totally differennt forecasts in just 24 hours. I'm not sure whethere the below will be visible however you'll note todays left pane on page forecast for London. Which shows London being dry tonight with a minimum of 12c whilst on the very same page it shows on the right hand side it says something totally differente.g the temperature for tonight being 6c and rain spreading to the area

Left page

• City of London
Day Weather Temperature ( °C) Wind (mph) Link
Max. Min.
Sun Sunny day 15
12
1
Sun 7 Oct

Mon Cloudy 14
9
6
Mon 8 Oct


Right page
Today:
A cold start, with rural mist or fog patches gradually clearing. It will be a dry day generally and with some lengthy spells of sunshine once again, although thin high cloud will spread over many parts later. Maximum Temperature 16 °C.
Tonight:
A dry evening although becoming increasingly cloudy, and with cloud thickening to bring rain to much of the region by the end of the night. Minimum Temperature 6 °C.



Now is there an urban arid effect I've never heard of?

It's not good is it in fact it's rubbish. Believe me I don't spend hours scouring the MetO for something to moan about it's the first time I've visited the website in a week-all I wanted to do was see the forecast for the coming days and you get two . Now this is really hedging your bets.

Now I'm Not One to Moan...But Really........
 

One of the forecasts is for a location, the other for a wide area.
That would likely explain some of the difference in temperature.
Also, one of the forecasts uses a single word to represent the
weather over a period of time at a location. The other one uses
several sentences to try and communicate the weather over a period of
time.
I note that the rain in the forecast is not due till the end of the
night. So if you have to provide a description of the night's weather
in one word, which word should you use? Wet, to represent a small
interval of time right at the end of the forecast? Or dry, to
represent the other 11 hours of the night?

These are communication challenges that the MetO are very well aware
of, as they have been in this game for a long time. They do give
guidance on interpretation of forecasts too - and the emphasis of
that guidance is (and always has been) to use the human-written text
forecast. Location-based forecasts are there to use in addition, but
the MetO advise that you remain aware of their shortcomings.

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx*for hourly reports*

Now I'm Not One to Moan...But Really........
 

On Sunday, 7 October 2012 13:17:30 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
One of the forecasts is for a location, the other for a wide area.

That would likely explain some of the difference in temperature.

Also, one of the forecasts uses a single word to represent the

weather over a period of time at a location. The other one uses

several sentences to try and communicate the weather over a period of

time.

I note that the rain in the forecast is not due till the end of the

night. So if you have to provide a description of the night's weather

in one word, which word should you use? Wet, to represent a small

interval of time right at the end of the forecast? Or dry, to

represent the other 11 hours of the night?



These are communication challenges that the MetO are very well aware

of, as they have been in this game for a long time. They do give

guidance on interpretation of forecasts too - and the emphasis of

that guidance is (and always has been) to use the human-written text

forecast. Location-based forecasts are there to use in addition, but

the MetO advise that you remain aware of their shortcomings.



--

Freddie

Bayston Hill

Shropshire

102m AMSL

http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/

https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWxￜfor hourly reportsￜ

Well I realise that one covered a wider area but it did include London whereas -was the other the City of London, if so then the City of London must have it's own micro climate where it only rains in the surrounding areas.

I'm perfectly happy with a general regional forecast , all this Statement of Purose tripe has the MetO trying to forecast for individual square meters and apologising when they can't.

Now I'm Not One to Moan...But Really........
 

"Lawrence13" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, 7 October 2012 13:17:30 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
One of the forecasts is for a location, the other for a wide area.

That would likely explain some of the difference in temperature.

Also, one of the forecasts uses a single word to represent the

weather over a period of time at a location. The other one uses

several sentences to try and communicate the weather over a period of

time.

I note that the rain in the forecast is not due till the end of the

night. So if you have to provide a description of the night's weather

in one word, which word should you use? Wet, to represent a small

interval of time right at the end of the forecast? Or dry, to

represent the other 11 hours of the night?



These are communication challenges that the MetO are very well aware

of, as they have been in this game for a long time. They do give

guidance on interpretation of forecasts too - and the emphasis of

that guidance is (and always has been) to use the human-written text

forecast. Location-based forecasts are there to use in addition, but

the MetO advise that you remain aware of their shortcomings.



--

Freddie

Bayston Hill

Shropshire

102m AMSL

http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/

https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWxￜfor hourly reportsￜ

Well I realise that one covered a wider area but it did include London
whereas -was the other the City of London, if so then the City of London
must have it's own micro climate where it only rains in the surrounding
areas.

I'm perfectly happy with a general regional forecast , all this Statement of
Purose tripe has the MetO trying to forecast for individual square meters
and apologising when they can't.
===========================

UKMO have a problem.
Some in UKMO want to automate everything quickly, a lot don't fully
understand meteorology (branding, sales and other staff) but can see a
massive "business" advantage in automated site forecasts, hence they are
seen as the future. But UKMO also have a responsibility for warning the
nation and still a commitment to human based forecasts, the two sometimes
don't mix well together.
Solutions are being looked into.
Another problem is that UKMO no longer has a network of local forecast
offices (weather centres) anymore (cut to save a few pennies in 2005/2006)
and hence no way of editing centrally based forecasts based on local
information. I could go on .......

Will
--

Now I'm Not One to Moan...But Really........
 

On Sunday, 7 October 2012 18:43:43 UTC+1, wrote:

Another problem is that UKMO no longer has a network of local forecast
offices (weather centres) anymore (cut to save a few pennies in 2005/2006)
and hence no way of editing centrally based forecasts based on local
information. I could go on .......

Now this I *do* agree with you on, Will !

Richard

Now I'm Not One to Moan...But Really........
 

On Sunday, 7 October 2012 18:43:43 UTC+1, wrote:
"Lawrence13" wrote in message

...

On Sunday, 7 October 2012 13:17:30 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:

One of the forecasts is for a location, the other for a wide area.



That would likely explain some of the difference in temperature.



Also, one of the forecasts uses a single word to represent the



weather over a period of time at a location. The other one uses



several sentences to try and communicate the weather over a period of



time.



I note that the rain in the forecast is not due till the end of the



night. So if you have to provide a description of the night's weather



in one word, which word should you use? Wet, to represent a small



interval of time right at the end of the forecast? Or dry, to



represent the other 11 hours of the night?







These are communication challenges that the MetO are very well aware



of, as they have been in this game for a long time. They do give



guidance on interpretation of forecasts too - and the emphasis of



that guidance is (and always has been) to use the human-written text



forecast. Location-based forecasts are there to use in addition, but



the MetO advise that you remain aware of their shortcomings.







--



Freddie



Bayston Hill



Shropshire



102m AMSL



http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/



https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWxￜfor hourly reportsￜ



Well I realise that one covered a wider area but it did include London

whereas -was the other the City of London, if so then the City of London

must have it's own micro climate where it only rains in the surrounding

areas.



I'm perfectly happy with a general regional forecast , all this Statement of

Purose tripe has the MetO trying to forecast for individual square meters

and apologising when they can't.

===========================



UKMO have a problem.

Some in UKMO want to automate everything quickly, a lot don't fully

understand meteorology (branding, sales and other staff) but can see a

massive "business" advantage in automated site forecasts, hence they are

seen as the future. But UKMO also have a responsibility for warning the

nation and still a commitment to human based forecasts, the two sometimes

don't mix well together.

Solutions are being looked into.

Another problem is that UKMO no longer has a network of local forecast

offices (weather centres) anymore (cut to save a few pennies in 2005/2006)

and hence no way of editing centrally based forecasts based on local

information. I could go on .......



Will

--

"But UKMO also have a responsibility for warning the nation"

Blimey Will that sounds so serious -is it as bad as that?

I mean it's only weather far more people die of stabbings in London in an average week than ever of poor weather forecasts. Seriously are the UKMO staff told that Great Britain Expects and have responsibility for the safety of the whole country. If then the case my God it's getting to the stage where if it snows in a part of the country where there was no snow warning issued and someone dies as a result of the conditions then UKMO would be charged with corporate manslaughter ?