Last night the overnight minimum temperature for Plymouth was predicted at +6c, yet I have a work colleague that lives in central Plymouth who reliably informs me she had to scrape ice off her car this morning & the temperature on her car thermometer at 7am was only +2C.

Even allowing for the fact that car thermometers are not 100% accurate, a difference of 4C compared to forecast is substantial.

She also informed me that a motorcyclist was killed in Plymouth this morning, was there ice on the road that contributed to the accident?
http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/Bike...ail/story.html

It's not the first time that I've noticed actual temperatures a lot lower than predicted, what's going wrong with the forecasts?

On Tue, 6 Nov 2012 04:47:14 -0800 (PST), Teignmouth
wrote:
Last night the overnight minimum temperature for Plymouth was
predicted at =
+6c, yet I have a work colleague that lives in central Plymouth who
reliabl=
y informs me she had to scrape ice off her car this morning & the
temperatu=
re on her car thermometer at 7am was only +2C.
It's not the first time that I've noticed actual temperatures a lot
lower t=
han predicted, what's going wrong with the forecasts?

It was the other way round up here - expecting a min of 1 and a
ground frost. Min was 4 and no frost.

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx*for hourly reports*

Its all to do with cloud cover obviously,perhaps if the forecasters majored
on that factor the average layman could work out if it's gonna be icy
themselves ,unfortunately the Met Office is not infallable ...

RonB


"Teignmouth" wrote in message
...
Last night the overnight minimum temperature for Plymouth was predicted at
+6c, yet I have a work colleague that lives in central Plymouth who reliably
informs me she had to scrape ice off her car this morning & the temperature
on her car thermometer at 7am was only +2C.

Even allowing for the fact that car thermometers are not 100% accurate, a
difference of 4C compared to forecast is substantial.

She also informed me that a motorcyclist was killed in Plymouth this
morning, was there ice on the road that contributed to the accident?
http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/Bike...ail/story.html

It's not the first time that I've noticed actual temperatures a lot lower
than predicted, what's going wrong with the forecasts?

On Tuesday, November 6, 2012 1:45:44 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:

It was the other way round up here - expecting a min of 1 and a

ground frost. Min was 4 and no frost.


=============

A singular observation, then, I must say. Shawbury and Keele both had minimum of +1.0 deg C and Newport 0.0 deg C.

Stephen.

On Tuesday, November 6, 2012 12:47:14 PM UTC, Teignmouth wrote:
Last night the overnight minimum temperature for Plymouth was predicted at +6c, yet I have a work colleague that lives in central Plymouth who reliably informs me she had to scrape ice off her car this morning & the temperature on her car thermometer at 7am was only +2C.



Even allowing for the fact that car thermometers are not 100% accurate, a difference of 4C compared to forecast is substantial.



She also informed me that a motorcyclist was killed in Plymouth this morning, was there ice on the road that contributed to the accident?

===========

Ice/frost forms far more quickly on cars than on roads, of course.

I'm surprised at a forecast minimum of +6C, though.

Stephen.

"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message
...
On Tuesday, November 6, 2012 1:45:44 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:

It was the other way round up here - expecting a min of 1 and a

ground frost. Min was 4 and no frost.


=============

A singular observation, then, I must say. Shawbury and Keele both had
minimum of +1.0 deg C and Newport 0.0 deg C.

Not really singular - Shawbury and Newport are both notable frost hollows.
But I'm not trying to make out that the forecast was wrong to be honest -
the point I was trying to make was that it was a marginal night for frost,
and that some places missed out and some got it.
--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports

On Tuesday, November 6, 2012 3:19:57 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:



Not really singular - Shawbury and Newport are both notable frost hollows..

But I'm not trying to make out that the forecast was wrong to be honest -

the point I was trying to make was that it was a marginal night for frost,

and that some places missed out and some got it.

--

=====

Understood, thanks. Indeed. It's the old tale of one forecast temperature sometimes having (impossibly) to cover a large area; so of course the lowest should (more or less) be given. Which might not be representative if, as you say, you have to cater, for example, for the Shawbury frost hollow.



Stephen.

"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message
...
On Tuesday, November 6, 2012 3:19:57 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Not really singular - Shawbury and Newport are both notable frost
hollows.
But I'm not trying to make out that the forecast was wrong to be honest -
the point I was trying to make was that it was a marginal night for
frost,
and that some places missed out and some got it.

Understood, thanks. Indeed. It's the old tale of one forecast
temperature sometimes having (impossibly) to cover a large area; so of
course the lowest should (more or less) be given. Which
might not be representative if, as you say, you have to cater,
for example, for the Shawbury frost hollow.

Absolutely. Which is why I think the MetO giving town minimumu temperatures
followed by country ones is an excellent move. A case in point is this
morning: the cloud has been thin and broken over Shropshire for the past
four or five hours, allowing Shawbury's temperature to fall to 1 (at
0800z) - whereas here in the suburbs of Shrewsbury (10 miles from Shawbury
as the crow flies - I can see the airfield lights from my window!) the
temperature fell to 4. If you look at temperatures across Shropshire a
short time ago (http://www.hosiene.co.uk/shrops.png - 0848z, thanks to
wunderground.com) you can see how much Shawbury stands out!
--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports