The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a
chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly
cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to
write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,
Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything
even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)
before late January?

Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according
to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013
will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March
are extremely dry.

It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll
be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly
lighter.

Nick

On Wednesday, December 19, 2012 2:18:58 PM UTC, Nick wrote:
The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a

chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly

cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to

write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,

Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything

even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)

before late January?



Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according

to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013

will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March

are extremely dry.



It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll

be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly

lighter.



Nick

CET for 1st half of December currently +2.2°C, which is 3.2°C below the 1981-2010 average http://www.climate-uk.com/

So, it can't be said that it's been a mild month so far in Central England!

"Nick" wrote in message
...

The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a
chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly
cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to
write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,
Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything
even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)
before late January?

Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according
to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013
will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March
are extremely dry.

It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll
be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly
lighter.


Nick, every time I read your posts they make me feel very depressed. I'm
normally the optimistic sort but you always seem to succeed in lowering my
canker! Learn to love the rain :-)

Will
--

On Wednesday, December 19, 2012 2:18:58 PM UTC, Nick wrote:
The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a

chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly

cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to

write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,

Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything

even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)

before late January?



Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according

to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013

will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March

are extremely dry.



It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll

be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly

lighter.



Nick

Don't be silly. There's "massive uncertainty" this weekend, next weekend, some other weekend anway, with cold air undercuts and a huge possibility of a snowflake somewhere. It's well known, obvious, almost certain, maybe. *))

How long was that on the charts? One run, or two?

On Dec 19, 2:24*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Nick" wrote in message

...











The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a
chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly
cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to
write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,
Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything
even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)
before late January?

Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according
to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013
will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March
are extremely dry.

It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll
be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly
lighter.

Nick, every time I read your posts they make me feel very depressed. I'm
normally the optimistic sort but you always seem to succeed in lowering my
canker! Learn to love the rain :-)

Will
--

Sorry, it's just rather depressing when I see a 30 day forecast like
that, and I do find the dampness and low light levels gets me down -
I'm just looking for a glimmer of hope and hoping that the 30-day
forecast is not as certain as it sounds! I also do appreciate - maybe
too much - the beauty of snow, frost and ice and don't like it when it
fails to materialise.

Probably the best solution then is not to look at any long-term
forecasts or models!

Nick

On Wednesday, 19 December 2012 14:18:58 UTC, Nick wrote:
The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp, Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature) before late January? Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013 will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March are extremely dry. It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly lighter. Nick

It's funny NickI remember that great winter of 78/79 wich started around the 27/28th December. I was in South Yorkshire at the time and I remember the BBC news higlighting the River Ouse in York reaching record levels.

On Wednesday, 19 December 2012 14:25:09 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, December 19, 2012 2:18:58 PM UTC, Nick wrote: The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp, Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature) before late January? Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013 will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March are extremely dry. It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly lighter. Nick Don't be silly. There's "massive uncertainty" this weekend, next weekend, some other weekend anway, with cold air undercuts and a huge possibility of a snowflake somewhere. It's well known, obvious, almost certain, maybe. *)) How long was that on the charts? One run, or two?

One my dear friend, yesterdays 12z GFS

On 19/12/2012 14:18, Nick wrote:

The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a
chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly
cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to
write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,
Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything
even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)
before late January?

Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according
to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013
will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March
are extremely dry.

It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll
be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly
lighter.

Nick


The afternoons have already started getting lighter. Admittedly, the
morning will carry on getting darker till early January but that doesn't
bother me as that is when I analyse the weather charts for the day.

--
Howard Neil

"Lawrence13" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 19 December 2012 14:25:09 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, December 19, 2012 2:18:58 PM UTC, Nick wrote: The latest
30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a chance of
anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly cold, for
the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to write off
the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp,
Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything
even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature)
before late January? Seems January will be the 10th consecutive
unsettled month according to that forecast. It seems possible now that
April 2012-March 2013 will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record,
unless Feb and March are extremely dry. It's the shortest day
on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll be February before we
notice the afternoons getting even slightly lighter. Nick
Don't be silly. There's "massive uncertainty" this weekend, next weekend,
some other weekend anway, with cold air undercuts and a huge possibility
of a snowflake somewhere. It's well known, obvious, almost certain, maybe.
*)) How long was that on the charts? One run, or two?

One my dear friend, yesterdays 12z GFS
===============

No Lawrence, there is greater than normal uncertainty in 2m temperatures for
London from 12Z, 18Z, 00Z and 06Z runs so far for this weekend. Do you not
look at ensemble outputs? Uncertainty does not equal cold, it is just that -
uncertainty - and I find that fascinating in it's own right, which is what
my post was about. But that would have been obvious to most LOL. I'm now
more concerned about the very heavy rain in Devon tonight though.

Will
--

On Wednesday, 19 December 2012 14:41:58 UTC, wrote:
"Lawrence13" wrote in message ... On Wednesday, 19 December 2012 14:25:09 UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, December 19, 2012 2:18:58 PM UTC, Nick wrote: The latest 30 day forecast seems absolutely hopeless without even a chance of anything even slightly pleasant, never mind interestingly cold, for the south of England for the next month. Is it now time to write off the first half of winter 2012/13 as a hideous, damp, Atlantic-dominated gloomfest? Is there any hope whatsoever of anything even passably pleasant (read: dry, don't care about the temperature) before late January? Seems January will be the 10th consecutive unsettled month according to that forecast. It seems possible now that April 2012-March 2013 will be possibly the wettest 12-month on record, unless Feb and March are extremely dry. It's the shortest day on Friday but with that forecast I suspect it'll be February before we notice the afternoons getting even slightly lighter. Nick Don't be silly. There's "massive uncertainty" this weekend, next weekend, some other weekend anway, with cold air undercuts and a huge possibility of a snowflake somewhere. It's well known, obvious, almost certain, maybe. *)) How long was that on the charts? One run, or two? One my dear friend, yesterdays 12z GFS =============== No Lawrence, there is greater than normal uncertainty in 2m temperatures for London from 12Z, 18Z, 00Z and 06Z runs so far for this weekend. Do you not look at ensemble outputs? Uncertainty does not equal cold, it is just that - uncertainty - and I find that fascinating in it's own right, which is what my post was about. But that would have been obvious to most LOL. I'm now more concerned about the very heavy rain in Devon tonight though. Will --

"Do you not look at ensemble"? Well Ilke music a lot so can you point me too the,?