I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

In article ,
Ilsington writes:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion,

I'm guessing that was meant to read "not".

but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the
stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will
be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow
reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The
ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects
the weakening flow and some blocking.

Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows an easterly setting in - at
least in the south - nine days hence.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:22:05 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

How right you were. Worried we are going to get into the usual slanging match regarding SSW

On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:22:05 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

Is this just your opinion, or have you a source? If you have no source, it is just your opinion.

On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:22:05 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

My dear Dawlish,
It is with great trepidation that I reply as do want to get into a great discussion. Of course you are right to question my assumption, but it is based on experience and some research. In my early days I worked on the interaction of the Troposphere and stratosphere. The main research in those day was the upward propagation of energy and the lid imposed by the westerly vortex (Charney/Drazin. If the vortex reverses then energy is no longer reflected in the same way. We were able to simulate SSW by forcing the 100hPa height clearly showing the two layers interacting. It was really interesting to see how a major SSW could reverse the flow to a great depth.
Anyway just some food for thought, hope you receive this with the integrity in which it was sent.

On Monday, 31 December 2012 20:22:05 UTC, Ilsington wrote:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

Arctic Vortex Split?

Isn't that a question for the uk.alt binaries. Mr Whippy....?

On Dec 31, 8:59*pm, Ilsington
wrote:
On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:22:05 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed.

The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts.

The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

My dear Dawlish,
It is with great trepidation that I reply as do want to get into a great discussion. Of course you are right to question my assumption, but it is based on experience and some research.

In my early days I worked on the interaction of the Troposphere and stratosphere. The main research in those day was the upward propagation of energy and the lid imposed by the westerly vortex (Charney/Drazin.

If the vortex reverses then energy is no longer reflected in the same way.. We were able to simulate SSW by forcing the 100hPa height clearly showing the two layers interacting.

It was really interesting to see how a major SSW could reverse the flow to a great depth.
Anyway just some food for thought, hope you receive this with the integrity in which it was sent.

You are in for a major problem that is taxing your keyboard skills
with the same problem as Dullish's brain cell.

I was just looking at the Antarctic sea level charts:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

I've got that new storm Seven turning into something a lot larger than
the three Freda made:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

If you can get the charts from 27th or better still the 28th, you can
see the signal as parallel isobars. There are Lows in the soup as of
the chart for 18:00 -at the time of writing: 31 December 2012.

None at the back end of the series today. The isobars make a complete
circuit of parallel isobars when Seven gets through the Anticyclone
belt on the 5th. A problem there of course is that it goes straight
into the Antarctic continent.

Anything going in perpendicular to the coast usually means a very
large quake. But it is connected to a Tropical Storm, so it shouldn't
get much larger than a 7.5 M.

But what do I know? (Besides all that IS known about that sort of
thing at the moment, of course.)

Presumably you have trained as a climatologist or done a lot of work
with such dick-heads. Try and see your way through all the crap you
have learnt. You might learn something worth knowing.

Current Data: 1 Jan, 2013 6:47 GMT

System Basin Lat Long Wind Cat

FREDA SW Pacific 17.6 S 161.7 E 90 kts 2
SEVEN S Indian 11.9 S 56.4 E 35 kts TS
SEVEN S Indian 11.9 S 56.4 E 35 kts TS
FREDA SW Pacific 18.6 S 161.5 E 70 kts 1

24-hr Ahead Projections: 2 Jan, 2013 6:47 GMT

FREDA SW Pacific 19.2 S 161.6 E 70 kts 1
SEVEN S Indian 14.2 S 54.2 E 60 kts TS
SEVEN S Indian 14.2 S 54.2 E 60 kts TS
FREDA SW Pacific 20.3 S 162.1 E 45 kts TS

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

From the subprime to the invidious.
Anyone remember the days before satellites?
And we thought we had it so good having got past the days of sail.
Now look at the mess!

On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:59:14 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:
On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:22:05 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:

I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.



My dear Dawlish,

It is with great trepidation that I reply as do want to get into a great discussion. Of course you are right to question my assumption, but it is based on experience and some research. In my early days I worked on the interaction of the Troposphere and stratosphere. The main research in those day was the upward propagation of energy and the lid imposed by the westerly vortex (Charney/Drazin. If the vortex reverses then energy is no longer reflected in the same way. We were able to simulate SSW by forcing the 100hPa height clearly showing the two layers interacting. It was really interesting to see how a major SSW could reverse the flow to a great depth.

Anyway just some food for thought, hope you receive this with the integrity in which it was sent.

My dear Islington,

It *sounds* like your opinion then *)). If you don't expect to be questioned about your opinion; please don't post without sources, but you've just said you do want to get into discussion, so good on you.

I do find it fascinating, though. If you look at the university of Berlin's site, a "significant" SSW does not appear to be under way, as far as I can see; but a minor one very probably is and sudden warming is likely to happen over the next few days. The categorisation of SSW events isn't difficult to find, but "significant" isn't one that I recognise. Well done for using the correct terminology for an SSW, but without a source, your opinion doesn't appear to fit with the current facts - but you are welcome to hold it:

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php

Please ignore w; he knows not what he says and as a result, no-one takes notice, past saying that he knows not what he says.

Yours truthfully, Paul

On Jan 5, 10:20 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

There is a possibility that these will play ring around the roses. I
have no idea what that will mean. All the weather charts seem to be up
the spout at the moment. I have no idea why.

The Alaska Low has changed into a three pointed centre on the forecast
NAEFS.
It is the same pattern and timing as the Met Office give for their
version off Greenland.

The last time I was aware of the behaviour of lows in the same region
circulating a common centre -if this is what is going to happen, there
was an associated tropical storm off Réunion in the south west Indian
Ocean.

What is happening off Alaska is much the same but I have minus 1
experience of that.

The Met Office show that the developments will produce an anticyclone
in the Denmark Straight which is unusual. What is incredible is that
it is flanked by a Greenland and a Scandinavian Low.

There is a massive Polar High that is centred in Asia just of the
chart he

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/...is/947_100.gif at the time of writing: 6 January 2013.

1045 mb. It covers half of the North Pole (declining towards the
Norwegian Sea rather than facing any serious opposition.)

And off the coast of the USA there is another substantial High. This
is coupled with an High over the coast that extends as far as the
Mississippippippaeiii.

I am afraid the planet has seismic issues it is yet to deal with.
Unhappily for some, the tropical storm situation id dying out. But as
a glance at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...ml?type=mslp-p....

This should be anything BUT the case.

I can only imagine that the relatively large earthquake off Alaska was
just a prelude to what we are about to receive, may the lord make us
truly grateful. It has all gone quiet on the western front:

Update time =
Sun Jan 6 2013 @ 7:28:22 UTC

5.1 MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION
5.1 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
7.5 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
5.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Hardly the behaviour seasoned realists would expect from the USGS
lists after a mag. 7 is it?

No doubt obductionists will come up with something if badgered
continuously for long enough. Something to do with not enough shaking
to settle all the fizz out of the pop?

OK enough of the funny stuff, people are going to die.
Let's see if we can find out where.

There are two viable methods for detecting where the most likely
epicentre is:

1. Where the confluence of the most severe pressure systems are. The
epicentres will be some 90 degrees along the 1016 isobar between them.

The regions to watch out for will be some 80 degrees from the centres
of the High and the Low involved. Unfortunately that is quite a large
area given the size of a centre for any suitable High (in this case
most of central Siberia and or 1/4 of the west Pacific.)

The problem with Lows is their penchant for moving off at the last
minute. Of course had we reasonable analysis charts to consult things
might get nailed down to within 6 hours of escapement.

I can't see that happening in my life time. Not with the dolts in
charge of the rule books in places like the Met Orifice. Still never
mind eh?
Mustn't grumble, there is always method II subsection paragraph 14
ibid 2034a. subsection b. (Fourth line from the bottom.) New Zealand
et al:

2. We could just look up the last one:

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/bl...f-january-2009

Day. Month. Mag. time. Long. Lat.

3. 1. 7.7. M. @ 194350.65. -0.414. 132.885
3. 1. 7.4. M. @ 223340.29. -0.691. 133.305
15. 1. 7.4. M. @ 174939.07. 46.857. 155.154
11. 2. 7.2. M. @ 173450.49. 3.886. 126.387
18. 2. 7. M. @ 215345.16. -27.424. -176.33
19. 3. 7.6. M. @ 181740.47. -23.043. -174.66
28. 5. 7.3. M. @ 82446.56. 16.731. -86.217
15. 7. 7.8. M. @ 92229.03. -45.762. 166.562
9. 8. 7.1. M. @ 105555.11. 33.167. 137.944
10. 8. 7.5. M. @ 195538.73. 14.099. 92.902
2. 9. 7. M. @ 75501.05. -7.782. 107.297
29. 9. 8.1. M. @ 174810.99. -15.489. -172.095
30. 9. 7.6. M. @ 101609.25. -0.72. 99.867
7. 10. 7.7. M. @ 220314.47. -13.006. 166.51
7. 10. 7.8. M. @ 221851.24. -12.517. 166.382
7. 10. 7.4. M. @ 231348.16. -13.093. 166.497
9. 11. 7.3. M. @ 104455.11. -17.239. 178.331

That looks messy. Here is the source:

http://neic.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/epic/ep...=Submit+Search

Not very lucid is it. It looks like a spread of 2 weeks between all of
them until March. I wonder what the phases we

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

(Well you didn't think I was going to put them all on here, did you?)