The forecast for today was mostly dull and cloudy yet from late
morning there has been many sunny breaks - indeed when the sun has
come out it has been quite pleasant - so much so that folk at the
greengrocer's said it was "like spring". Liam Dutton, to name but one
forecaster, said there's been more sun around than he thought.
During other anticyclones the forecast has frequently been the
opposite - dull and grey when the forecast has been for sunshine.

Is there any way that forecasting cloud amounts in these synoptic set-
ups will ever improve - it seems to catch out the forecasters time and
again?

On Fri, 4 Jan 2013 05:19:21 -0800 (PST), Scott W
wrote:
Is there any way that forecasting cloud amounts in these synoptic
set-
ups will ever improve - it seems to catch out the forecasters time
and
again?

The problem is that it only takes a very small change (usually in
humidity in a very shallow layer, but also could be inversion height)
for the cloudy/cloudless threshold to be crossed. It is a very tricky
parameter to forecast. If you get your forecast dewpoint half a
degree out then your cloud forecast could be 100% wrong.

Having an atmospheric model with a very fine vertical resolution
(levels every few hPa) would be a start, but your assimilation of
observed initial conditions probably needs equal attention.

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx*for hourly reports*

Scott W wrote:
.... indeed when the sun has
come out it has been quite pleasant - so much so that folk at the
greengrocer's said it was "like spring".
----------------------------
Scott, you old hell raiser!
Dave