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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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![]() Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34. Weather Action has audited accuracy, for example, the WeatherAction advance forecast of May 5 2009 predicted “Bay of Bengal land hit on May 24-26 2009” the event was verified by Cyclone Alia in the Bay of Bengal May 25 2009. Please see the Short List table below for more details of successful predictions and notable major extreme events. Download Excel table report See below for full independently Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts March to Sept 2008 showing a success rate of 85% in forecasting of generally relatively unusual extreme events in narrow time windows. Download pdf format report See below the Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts for the period October 2008 to April 2009 and a cover letter from the Auditors re USA & Canada events Download pdf format formal audit report Download pdf format report Skill and forecast scope has been maintained and advanced since then and reports are issued every month. The success rate is similar in WeatherAction detailed long range forecasts down to time windows of a few days for Britain, Ireland & European countries. The unique power of the forecasts has also been proven by the profits on Scientific Weather Bets with William Hill at odds and verification organized independently by the UK Met Office. In 4,000 Weather Test Bets over 12 years with William Hill, Weather Action forecasts made a profit of some 40% (£20,000). The Odds were statistically fair and set by the Met Office before being shortened by William Hill by a standard 20%; the results were then provided by the Met Office for William Hill to settle each bet. Piers Corbyn was excluded by the bookies from such account betting in 2000. Bets and notional bets can be used to estimate Forecasting Power which is the % profit (or negative for losses) on stakes that would come from bets placed at fair odds. For general long range forecasts for the three most extreme recent seasons, namely Summer 2007, Summer 2008 and Winter 2008-09 The Met Office long range forecast Power is minus 100% (ie Met Office long range forecasts failed in all three cases) and WeatherAction (Solar Weather Technique) scores about plus 500%. Many companies and organizations have carried out their own assessments of WeatherAction forecasts and consequently renew their purchase of forecasts. Report from a farmer: Farmers need WeatherAction forecasts. Notes on what ( 'S' - who will talk to other farmers) - a long standing farmer WeatherAction customer - said - and which was given to a meeting of North Devon Grassland society (farmers) in Barnstaple on 15th Oct 2008 S: "I have been with WeatherAction for ten years. Every farmer needs WeatherAction forecasts. they might think they don't but they do. There are many practical examples of how I have saved money by applying WeatherAction forecasts: Selling Corn (Wheat) this year. Piers' forecast made it clear that the rain to come meant we had to harvest early or the potential milling wheat would be devalued into feed wheat. Hay: I could see from the forecast it was going to be tough. I have saved a lot on hay because of Piers' forecasts. I got a second cut by careful timing Fertiliser: Dry / Wet forecasts makes it clear if you need to buy and use Maize. The frosts forecast meant it should be planted late. Those who planted early lost out. Dairy: The cold spring forecast means that grass would be late so it would be worth spending on fertiliser. Planning. Use forecasters to book contractors and avoid hiring labour that has to stand idle because of adverse weather. BUY the forecasts for two years. They are a guide not gospel but and you will find you are lost without them. There is no-one else in the world who can do it. |
#2
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On Monday, 28 January 2013 20:46:48 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Loving the parody - keep up the good work, I'm getting huge comedy value from this. Richard |
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In article
, Jim Cannon writes: Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34. snip I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather Action might prove rather tenuous. -- John Hall "Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong." Oscar Wilde |
#4
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On 28/01/13 22:20, John Hall wrote:
In article , Jim writes: Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34. snip I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather Action might prove rather tenuous. I found the title and abstract via a quick search: "A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’: October 1995–September 1997" "In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success, or otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar predictors and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they predict. This paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but confines attention to the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed over different seasons. The results, whilst differing greatly between the seasons, reveal a degree of success that cannot readily be accounted for by chance and suggest that this system of forecasting continues to be assessed over a longer time period to further investigate these findings." You have to pay to get hold of the full article. |
#5
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![]() "Adam Lea" wrote in message ... On 28/01/13 22:20, John Hall wrote: In article , Jim writes: Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34. snip I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather Action might prove rather tenuous. I found the title and abstract via a quick search: "A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’: October 1995–September 1997" "In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success, or otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar predictors and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they predict. This paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but confines attention to the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed over different seasons. The results, whilst differing greatly between the seasons, reveal a degree of success that cannot readily be accounted for by chance and suggest that this system of forecasting continues to be assessed over a longer time period to further investigate these findings." You have to pay to get hold of the full article. Well I read the full article at work at the time (probably have the full paper somewhere) and I can tell you that some of the brightest statisticians there at the Met Office were highly sceptical of the evaluation process. Whilst nobody could dispute Professor Wheeler's methods it was clear that he did not appear to be in possession of the full range of forecasts one would normally require to do a proper unbiased (in the statistical sense) study. One is also surprised that there were no further published investigations from that 14 years ago. Will -- http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- |
#6
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On Tuesday, 29 January 2013 09:15:26 UTC, wrote:
Well I read the full article at work at the time (probably have the full paper somewhere) and I can tell you that some of the brightest statisticians there at the Met Office were highly sceptical of the evaluation process. Whilst nobody could dispute Professor Wheeler's methods it was clear that he did not appear to be in possession of the full range of forecasts one would normally require to do a proper unbiased (in the statistical sense) study. One is also surprised that there were no further published investigations from that 14 years ago. I have an electronic copy of the article from yonks ago for those interested via email. (I don't think there should be any copyright issues here given it's public peer-reviewed research? Let me know if you think there would be a problem and I won't disseminate!) Richard |
#7
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On Tuesday, 29 January 2013 16:39:50 UTC, Malcolm wrote:
Come on, little Jim. Does a longer assessment exist, or was this a one off 12 years ago and no-one's been able to replicate it with more years of data? There's been the odd short-range attempt where it came through with unflying colours: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...ost__p__381636 Richard |
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