Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts
that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians
and published in scientific literature.
Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently
verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of
Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial
Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.

Weather Action has audited accuracy, for example, the WeatherAction
advance forecast of May 5 2009 predicted “Bay of Bengal land hit on
May 24-26 2009” the event was verified by Cyclone Alia in the Bay
of Bengal May 25 2009. Please see the Short List table below for more
details of successful predictions and notable major extreme events.


Download Excel table report

See below for full independently Audited Assessment report of
WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts March to Sept 2008
showing a success rate of 85% in forecasting of generally relatively
unusual extreme events in narrow time windows.


Download pdf format report

See below the Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme
events forecasts for the period October 2008 to April 2009 and a cover
letter from the Auditors re USA & Canada events


Download pdf format formal audit report
Download pdf format report

Skill and forecast scope has been maintained and advanced since then
and reports are issued every month.


The success rate is similar in WeatherAction detailed long range
forecasts down to time windows of a few days for Britain, Ireland &
European countries.

The unique power of the forecasts has also been proven by the profits
on Scientific Weather Bets with William Hill at odds and verification
organized independently by the UK Met Office.

In 4,000 Weather Test Bets over 12 years with William Hill, Weather
Action forecasts made a profit of some 40% (£20,000). The Odds were
statistically fair and set by the Met Office before being shortened by
William Hill by a standard 20%; the results were then provided by the
Met Office for William Hill to settle each bet. Piers Corbyn was
excluded by the bookies from such account betting in 2000.

Bets and notional bets can be used to estimate Forecasting Power which
is the % profit (or negative for losses) on stakes that would come
from bets placed at fair odds. For general long range forecasts for
the three most extreme recent seasons, namely Summer 2007, Summer 2008
and Winter 2008-09 The Met Office long range forecast Power is minus
100% (ie Met Office long range forecasts failed in all three cases)
and WeatherAction (Solar Weather Technique) scores about plus 500%.

Many companies and organizations have carried out their own
assessments of WeatherAction forecasts and consequently renew their
purchase of forecasts.

Report from a farmer:

Farmers need WeatherAction forecasts.

Notes on what ( 'S' - who will talk to other farmers) - a long
standing farmer WeatherAction customer - said - and which was given to
a meeting of North Devon Grassland society (farmers) in Barnstaple
on 15th Oct 2008

S: "I have been with WeatherAction for ten years. Every farmer needs
WeatherAction forecasts. they might think they don't but they do.
There are many practical examples of how I have saved money by
applying WeatherAction forecasts:

Selling Corn (Wheat) this year. Piers' forecast made it clear that the
rain to come meant we had to harvest early or the potential milling
wheat would be devalued into feed wheat.

Hay: I could see from the forecast it was going to be tough. I have
saved a lot on hay because of Piers' forecasts. I got a second cut by
careful timing

Fertiliser: Dry / Wet forecasts makes it clear if you need to buy and
use

Maize. The frosts forecast meant it should be planted late. Those who
planted early lost out.

Dairy: The cold spring forecast means that grass would be late so it
would be worth spending on fertiliser.

Planning. Use forecasters to book contractors and avoid hiring labour
that has to stand idle because of adverse weather.

BUY the forecasts for two years. They are a guide not gospel but and
you will find you are lost without them. There is no-one else in the
world who can do it.

On Monday, 28 January 2013 20:46:48 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts
that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians
and published in scientific literature.

Loving the parody - keep up the good work, I'm getting huge comedy value from this.

Richard

In article
,
Jim Cannon writes:
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts
that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians
and published in scientific literature.
Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently
verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of
Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial
Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.
snip

I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly
what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a
feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather
Action might prove rather tenuous.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On 28/01/13 22:20, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Jim writes:
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts
that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians
and published in scientific literature.
Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently
verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of
Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial
Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.
snip

I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly
what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a
feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather
Action might prove rather tenuous.


I found the title and abstract via a quick search:

"A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’:
October 1995–September 1997"

"In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting
which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much
attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success,
or otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar
predictors and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they
predict. This paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but
confines attention to the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed
over different seasons. The results, whilst differing greatly between
the seasons, reveal a degree of success that cannot readily be accounted
for by chance and suggest that this system of forecasting continues to
be assessed over a longer time period to further investigate these
findings."

You have to pay to get hold of the full article.

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 28/01/13 22:20, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Jim writes:
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts
that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians
and published in scientific literature.
Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently
verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of
Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial
Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.
snip

I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly
what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a
feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather
Action might prove rather tenuous.


I found the title and abstract via a quick search:

"A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’:
October 1995–September 1997"

"In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting
which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much
attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success, or
otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar predictors
and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they predict. This
paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but confines attention to
the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed over different seasons.
The results, whilst differing greatly between the seasons, reveal a degree
of success that cannot readily be accounted for by chance and suggest that
this system of forecasting continues to be assessed over a longer time
period to further investigate these findings."

You have to pay to get hold of the full article.

Well I read the full article at work at the time (probably have the full
paper somewhere) and I can tell you that some of the brightest statisticians
there at the Met Office were highly sceptical of the evaluation process.
Whilst nobody could dispute Professor Wheeler's methods it was clear that he
did not appear to be in possession of the full range of forecasts one would
normally require to do a proper unbiased (in the statistical sense) study.
One is also surprised that there were no further published investigations
from that 14 years ago.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Tuesday, 29 January 2013 09:15:26 UTC, wrote:

Well I read the full article at work at the time (probably have the full
paper somewhere) and I can tell you that some of the brightest statisticians
there at the Met Office were highly sceptical of the evaluation process.
Whilst nobody could dispute Professor Wheeler's methods it was clear that he
did not appear to be in possession of the full range of forecasts one would
normally require to do a proper unbiased (in the statistical sense) study.
One is also surprised that there were no further published investigations
from that 14 years ago.

I have an electronic copy of the article from yonks ago for those interested via email.

(I don't think there should be any copyright issues here given it's public peer-reviewed research? Let me know if you think there would be a problem and I won't disseminate!)

Richard

On Tuesday, 29 January 2013 16:39:50 UTC, Malcolm wrote:

Come on, little Jim. Does a longer assessment exist, or was this a one
off 12 years ago and no-one's been able to replicate it with more years
of data?

There's been the odd short-range attempt where it came through with unflying colours:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...ost__p__381636

Richard