Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0449, 08/02/13

The middle of the week will see a weak ridge or col over the UK giving way
to a trough from the west, with temperatures rising a little over the UK as
a result.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
NNW'lies cover the UK as the result of a ridge to the west. There's a col
tomorrow, followed by southerlies on Sunday. Monday sees low pressure over
southern England with easterlies further north.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge to the west with a northerly flow over the
UK. At the 500hPa level there's a weak NW'ly flow, as is the case with MetO.
The other runs show more of a northerly flow with the upper ridge further
west.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge from the NW, leading to a mixture of
SE'lies and ENE'lies. MetO has a col, while the other runs show NNE'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings a col on day 6, followed by southerlies on day 7 as a trough
approaches from the west. GFS shows a trough crossing the UK on day 6,
followed by a weak ridge and WSW'lies on day 7.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show SW'lies and SSW'lies with low pressure to the
west and NW. GFS has low pressure moving eastwards over northern Scotland on
days 8 and 9, leading to WSW'lies and westerlies elsewhere. On day 10 there
are WNW'lies as the low moves away eastwards.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
The GEFS shows mean highs of between 3 and 5C until the 16th, followed by
milder conditions.

ECM ensembles
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/service...-forecast.html
ECM still shows 3 noticeably cold days from the 11th followed by somewhat
milder conditions.

Darren Prescott wrote:
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0449, 08/02/13

The middle of the week will see a weak ridge or col over the UK giving
way to a trough from the west, with temperatures rising a little over
the UK as a result.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
NNW'lies cover the UK as the result of a ridge to the west. There's a
col tomorrow, followed by southerlies on Sunday. Monday sees low
pressure over southern England with easterlies further north.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge to the west with a northerly flow over
the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a weak NW'ly flow, as is the case
with MetO. The other runs show more of a northerly flow with the upper
ridge further west.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge from the NW, leading to a mixture of
SE'lies and ENE'lies. MetO has a col, while the other runs show NNE'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings a col on day 6, followed by southerlies on day 7 as a trough
approaches from the west. GFS shows a trough crossing the UK on day 6,
followed by a weak ridge and WSW'lies on day 7.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show SW'lies and SSW'lies with low pressure to the
west and NW. GFS has low pressure moving eastwards over northern
Scotland on days 8 and 9, leading to WSW'lies and westerlies elsewhere.
On day 10 there are WNW'lies as the low moves away eastwards.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres

The GEFS shows mean highs of between 3 and 5C until the 16th, followed
by milder conditions.

ECM ensembles
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/service...-forecast.html
ECM still shows 3 noticeably cold days from the 11th followed by
somewhat milder conditions.


-----------------------------------------------
As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any real
cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from Scandinavia for 17
years now. If you accept people won't have accurate information from
before they were 10 years old that means nobody under 27 can remember
real cold spells. As the opinion formers and media pundits become
younger so the definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we
will see an increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !
Dave

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any
real cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from
Scandinavia for 17 years now. If you accept people won't have
accurate information from before they were 10 years old that
means nobody under 27 can remember real cold spells. As the
opinion formers and media pundits become younger so the
definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we will see an
increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !

Surely December 2010 counts as a real cold spell, even if it perhaps
wasn't quite as severe in Essex as it was over most of the country.
After all, months (and especially Decembers) with a CET below zero have
always been pretty rare. ISTR that we had NE winds for some of the time,
though at other times they were more northerly.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On 08/02/2013 20:08, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any
real cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from
Scandinavia for 17 years now. If you accept people won't have
accurate information from before they were 10 years old that
means nobody under 27 can remember real cold spells. As the
opinion formers and media pundits become younger so the
definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we will see an
increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !

Surely December 2010 counts as a real cold spell, even if it perhaps
wasn't quite as severe in Essex as it was over most of the country.
After all, months (and especially Decembers) with a CET below zero have
always been pretty rare. ISTR that we had NE winds for some of the time,
though at other times they were more northerly.


December 2010 was the coldest since I started recording in this part
of Essex in 1978

--
George in Epping, west Essex, 350'asl
www.eppingweather.co.uk
www.winter1947.co.uk

George Booth wrote:
On 08/02/2013 20:08, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any
real cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from
Scandinavia for 17 years now. If you accept people won't have
accurate information from before they were 10 years old that
means nobody under 27 can remember real cold spells. As the
opinion formers and media pundits become younger so the
definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we will see an
increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !

Surely December 2010 counts as a real cold spell, even if it perhaps
wasn't quite as severe in Essex as it was over most of the country.
After all, months (and especially Decembers) with a CET below zero have
always been pretty rare. ISTR that we had NE winds for some of the time,
though at other times they were more northerly.


December 2010 was the coldest since I started recording in this part of
Essex in 1978

------------------------------
Well I was concentraating on the S.E corner where Darren and I live. It
wasn't exceptionally cold during that spell and there certainly wasn't
any drifting snow and it was relatively short lived here. It was of
course the coldest spell in the last 20 years or so, granted. As I
recollect it was largely LP driven as most recent easterlies have been
and we didn't get a big Scandinavian high with long fetch Easterlies. As
is often the case I could be wrong but Darren rarely is. The problem is
that people who didn't actually live near the East Anglian or Kentish
coast during the sixties, seventies and eighties just don't realise the
frequency and magnitude of the snow showers we used to get and the deep
cold from Continental incursions. People talk about undercutting cold
this weekend but what are the temperatures on the near continent? It was
more akin to what Ken gets now than these puny little marginal LP cold
snaps.
Dave

George Booth wrote:
On 08/02/2013 20:08, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any
real cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from
Scandinavia for 17 years now. If you accept people won't have
accurate information from before they were 10 years old that
means nobody under 27 can remember real cold spells. As the
opinion formers and media pundits become younger so the
definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we will see an
increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !

Surely December 2010 counts as a real cold spell, even if it perhaps
wasn't quite as severe in Essex as it was over most of the country.
After all, months (and especially Decembers) with a CET below zero have
always been pretty rare. ISTR that we had NE winds for some of the time,
though at other times they were more northerly.


December 2010 was the coldest since I started recording in this part of
Essex in 1978

----------------------------
I standby my feeling that younger people have a different concept of a
cold spell to me!
I agree the spell in December stands out.It may have been the coldest
since then George and I know the snow was greater further west,
especially on higher ground as you are but for here there is no
comparison in severity with 1979,1981 and 1987 and in terms of snowfall
many, many others before then. Most snowfall in the last few years has
come from the west and tended to die out further East. Pre 1990 snow
often came in from the East and petered out towards London. I worked in
East London and there were many occasions when we had six inches of snow
in East Essex and Kent only to find almost no snow in Greater London.
The days of heavy snow showers have all but gone in these parts.
Dave

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
George Booth wrote:
On 08/02/2013 20:08, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any
real cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from
Scandinavia for 17 years now. If you accept people won't have
accurate information from before they were 10 years old that
means nobody under 27 can remember real cold spells. As the
opinion formers and media pundits become younger so the
definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we will see an
increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !

Surely December 2010 counts as a real cold spell, even if it perhaps
wasn't quite as severe in Essex as it was over most of the country.
After all, months (and especially Decembers) with a CET below zero have
always been pretty rare. ISTR that we had NE winds for some of the time,
though at other times they were more northerly.

December 2010 was the coldest since I started recording in this
part of Essex in 1978

----------------------------
I standby my feeling that younger people have a different concept
of a cold spell to me!
I agree the spell in December stands out.It may have been the
coldest since then George and I know the snow was greater
further west, especially on higher ground as you are but for here
there is no comparison in severity with 1979,1981 and 1987 and in
terms of snowfall many, many others before then. Most snowfall in
the last few years has come from the west and tended to die out
further East. Pre 1990 snow often came in from the East and
petered out towards London. I worked in East London and there
were many occasions when we had six inches of snow in East
Essex and Kent only to find almost no snow in Greater London.
The days of heavy snow showers have all but gone in these parts.
Dave

I suspect that those close to the coast in East Anglia, Essex and Kent
have had a different experience from most of the rest of us, because a
greater proportion of their major snow events traditionally arrived on
strong E or NE winds. I accept that those set-ups seem to have become
rarer in recent years. We still see Scandinavian Highs from time to
time, but they mostly seem to be just too far north or too far east or
not quite intense enough to bring their full influence to bear on the
UK.

But for those of us away from that eastern coastal fringe, there have
still been notable cold spells and notable snowfalls, with something of
a resurgence in them in recent years. When you said "If you accept
people won't have accurate information from before they were 10 years
old that means nobody under 27 can remember real cold spells", you
seemed to be generalising from your own experience to the whole country,
and I think that was what was irritating me.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde