Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere
02/2572013 - The world has suffered from severe regional weather extremes in
recent years, such as the heat wave in the United States in 2011 or the one
in Russia 2010 coinciding with the unprecedented Pakistan flood. Behind
these devastating individual events there is a common physical cause,
propose scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK). The study will be published this week in the US Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences and suggests that man-made climate change
repeatedly disturbs the patterns of atmospheric flow around the globe's
Northern hemisphere through a subtle resonance mechanism.

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press...the-atmosphere

"Scientists were surprised by how far outside past experience some of the
recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of
extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming
trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that."

It sounds as if progress is being made in linking weather and climate
change.

Cheers, Alastair.

"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message
...
Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere
02/2572013 - The world has suffered from severe regional weather extremes
in recent years, such as the heat wave in the United States in 2011 or the
one in Russia 2010 coinciding with the unprecedented Pakistan flood.
Behind these devastating individual events there is a common physical
cause, propose scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK). The study will be published this week in the US
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and suggests that man-made
climate change repeatedly disturbs the patterns of atmospheric flow around
the globe's Northern hemisphere through a subtle resonance mechanism.

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press...the-atmosphere

"Scientists were surprised by how far outside past experience some of the
recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of
extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming
trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that."

It sounds as if progress is being made in linking weather and climate
change.


I would concur with their findings in terms of long periods of the same type
of weather. I have noticed this trend over the years. Gone are the days in
summer of "3 fine days and a thunderstorm". Instead we either get 60 days of
wet or 60 days of dry, I exagerrate but you get the drift. A good and
interesting study into Rossby wave behaviour in our modern climate. Also
amplifying Rossby waves will exacerbate or even trigger SSWs due to
breaking at the tropopause. This year's exceptionally strong one would link
in with their work too. Thanks.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Feb 27, 10:45*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message

...





Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere
02/2572013 - The world has suffered from severe regional weather extremes
in recent years, such as the heat wave in the United States in 2011 or the
one in Russia 2010 coinciding with the unprecedented Pakistan flood.
Behind these devastating individual events there is a common physical
cause, propose scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK). The study will be published this week in the US
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and suggests that man-made
climate change repeatedly disturbs the patterns of atmospheric flow around
the globe's Northern hemisphere through a subtle resonance mechanism.

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press...xtremes-provok...

"Scientists were surprised by how far outside past experience some of the
recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of
extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming
trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that."

It sounds as if progress is being made in linking weather and climate
change.

I would concur with their findings in terms of long periods of the same type
of weather. I have noticed this trend over the years. Gone are the days in
summer of "3 fine days and a thunderstorm". Instead we either get 60 days of
wet or 60 days of dry, I exagerrate but you get the drift. A good and
interesting study into Rossby wave behaviour in our modern climate. Also
amplifying Rossby waves will exacerbate or even trigger *SSWs due to
breaking at the tropopause. This year's exceptionally strong one would link
in with their work too. Thanks.

Didn't Rossby fall out with that Crick fellow?
I read the story but managed to forget the ins and outs.

Whilst the Indian Bureau of Meteorology managed to find the Sothern
Oscillation despite Asiatic proclivities towards the occult, I never
heard of a climatologist coming up with anything useful, even Rossby.

I haven't read the article yet but from the tenet of Alasdair's post I
get the impression that the occurrence of severe rainfall alongside
severe drought is not seen as part and participle of the same thing?

And that 300 or 400 molecules of carbon dioxide per million are having
each their own peculiar butterfly effect?

Doesn't sound sensible to me but then I am jumping to conclusions.
(Each according to his (or her) own thickness I suppose.)

On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 10:34:40 UTC, Alastair wrote:

It sounds as if progress is being made in linking weather and climate
change.

Another good article is "Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective". I hope they repeat for 2012's events to help people sort out the wheat from the chaff when it comes to saying X or Y was "because of climate change". Google the above paper title for a .pdf.

Richard

On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 10:45:31 UTC, wrote:
"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message

...

Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere

02/2572013 - The world has suffered from severe regional weather extremes

in recent years, such as the heat wave in the United States in 2011 or the

one in Russia 2010 coinciding with the unprecedented Pakistan flood.

Behind these devastating individual events there is a common physical

cause, propose scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact

Research (PIK). The study will be published this week in the US

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and suggests that man-made

climate change repeatedly disturbs the patterns of atmospheric flow around

the globe's Northern hemisphere through a subtle resonance mechanism.



http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press...the-atmosphere



"Scientists were surprised by how far outside past experience some of the

recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of

extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming

trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that."



It sounds as if progress is being made in linking weather and climate

change.





I would concur with their findings in terms of long periods of the same type

of weather. I have noticed this trend over the years. Gone are the days in

summer of "3 fine days and a thunderstorm". Instead we either get 60 days of

wet or 60 days of dry, I exagerrate but you get the drift. A good and

interesting study into Rossby wave behaviour in our modern climate. Also

amplifying Rossby waves will exacerbate or even trigger SSWs due to

breaking at the tropopause. This year's exceptionally strong one would link

in with their work too. Thanks.



Will

--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

---------------------------------------------

Of course Will, I have to concede to your superior meteorological knowledge in that you feel AGW is causing changes in the weather patterns and therefore weather extremes as Alastair pointed out in his initial post. However I also have to concede to the superior meteorological knowledge of others who feel that the extremes are no worse and have always been seen through the earth's recent history and have nothing to do with AGW. Of course in the world of the AGW protagonist everything we see in weather is down to AGW.
However remember this from the Independent in February 2000
http://www.independent.co.uk/environ...st-724017.html
"Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past"

and further from David Viner

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.

Note the symbolic image of the Childs sledge being sold no more , a thing of the past a bit like Citizen Kane's toboggan Rosebud thrown on the fire and gone forever. Oh dash those dastardly humans they've done it now in their selfish greedy desires to stay warm. eat and basically survive, yep they've gone and changed the global climate forever. What else do you need to be persuaded that humans have heated the earth so much that the Childs sledge is no more?

Of course then people like Alastair jumped all over this sort of stuff claiming AGW was the cause and told their friends and family we were all doomed and needed to immediately stop using fossil fuel. It was a tad like David Steele's epic faux pa when he told the SDP Liberal Alliance
"Return to you Constituencies and prepare for power".
So when the AGW crowd the read articles like 'Snow a thing of the past ' they the Green Party and AGW bandwagon were now so confident that people would now listen and stop using fossil fuels they told their members
"Return to your constituencies and tell the people to prepare for no power, just darkness, cold, sickness and poverty.

Well the world still turned and Co2 was still released as a side product of needed energy
and 13 years later we have this

Sledge and snow shovel sales on the rise
Wed 16 Jan 2013 http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-...s-on-the-rise/

Now of course as parts of Europe are have their fifth freezing winter on the spin and the USA has yet another series of epic snowfalls, we are being told that what once was a thing of the past, that being snow is now so abundant every winter that the only reason can be AGW. Poppycock.


Honestly with the AGW crowd I surprised the exploding meteorite of Russia wasn't caused by AGW .......................................Hold on it was.

http://www.rumbamusic.net/videos/wtf...Oq07yW18M.html

"Lawrence13" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 10:45:31 UTC,
wrote:
Of course Will, I have to concede to your superior meteorological knowledge
in that you feel AGW is causing changes in the weather patterns and
therefore weather extremes as Alastair pointed out in his initial post.
============================

Not AGW Lawrence but Climate Change (there is a difference).
All the paper is saying is that weather types are persisting longer in any
one spot, and I was agreeing with that.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

In article ,
Alastair McDonald writes:
The world has suffered from severe regional weather extremes in
recent years, such as the heat wave in the United States in 2011 or
the one in Russia 2010 coinciding with the unprecedented Pakistan
flood.
snip

From a British perspective, there's an interesting article in this
month's "Weather" about the North Sea storm surge in the winter of 1953
which led to extensive flooding in coastal areas and considerable loss
of life. The article goes off on an interesting tangent in the
introduction, suggesting that there were just as many if not more severe
weather events in Britain between 1947 and 1953 as there were between
2006 and 2012 (though perhaps rather fewer extreme months). Of course
Britain is not the world, and if you looked at the global picture it
might be very different.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On Feb 27, 4:56*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Lawrence13" wrote in message

...
On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 10:45:31 UTC,
wrote:
Of course Will, I have to concede to your superior meteorological knowledge
in that you feel AGW is causing changes in the weather patterns and
therefore weather extremes as Alastair pointed out in his initial post.
============================

Not AGW Lawrence but Climate Change (there is a difference).
All the paper is saying is that weather types are persisting longer in any
one spot, and I was agreeing with that.

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

This can be interpreted quite simply as saying that there is
more blocking. I don't get the impression that blocking in longitudes
near the UK is any more frequent than it was but if someone can prove
quantitavely that there has been I would concede the point.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
On Feb 27, 4:56 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Lawrence13" wrote in message

...
On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 10:45:31 UTC,
wrote:
Of course Will, I have to concede to your superior meteorological
knowledge
in that you feel AGW is causing changes in the weather patterns and
therefore weather extremes as Alastair pointed out in his initial post.
============================

Not AGW Lawrence but Climate Change (there is a difference).
All the paper is saying is that weather types are persisting longer in any
one spot, and I was agreeing with that.

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

: This can be interpreted quite simply as saying that there is
: more blocking. I don't get the impression that blocking in longitudes
: near the UK is any more frequent than it was but if someone can prove
: quantitavely that there has been I would concede the point.

: Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I thought it was saying that the Jet Stream is meandering more than in the
past, although I am not sure which Jet Stream; polar, sub-tropical or both.

The paper was written in Potsdam University so it won't be aimed at the UK
weather.

What is a blocking? Is is when the Jet Stream gets stuck to the West of us?

Cheers, Alastair.

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
On Feb 27, 4:56 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Lawrence13" wrote in message

...
On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 10:45:31 UTC,
wrote:
Of course Will, I have to concede to your superior meteorological
knowledge
in that you feel AGW is causing changes in the weather patterns and
therefore weather extremes as Alastair pointed out in his initial post.
============================

Not AGW Lawrence but Climate Change (there is a difference).
All the paper is saying is that weather types are persisting longer in any
one spot, and I was agreeing with that.

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

This can be interpreted quite simply as saying that there is
more blocking. I don't get the impression that blocking in longitudes
near the UK is any more frequent than it was but if someone can prove
quantitavely that there has been I would concede the point.
==========================

No that is not a correct assumption Tudor. Prolonged weather types can be a
long lasting wet zonal wave train or a slow moving vortex cluster or an
extension of the Azores high with mobility pushed further north. Neither of
which are true blocking.

Will
--