Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.

On 03/03/2013 08:38, Dawlish wrote:
Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.

Yes I had that thought too. There was RASN a couple of days last year in
March but no snow here since 2008 when it snowed 4 days at the end of
the month.

Phil

On 03/03/13 09:20, Phil Layton wrote:
On 03/03/2013 08:38, Dawlish wrote:
Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be
re-gathering to plague the UK.

Yes I had that thought too. There was RASN a couple of days last year in
March but no snow here since 2008 when it snowed 4 days at the end of
the month.

Phil

I remember last year on the first Sunday in March I was playing in a
bridge competition and was miffed that it meant I couldn't go on a group
walk that I had wanted to attend. When it turned out to be horrible with
strong gusty winds, driving rain and intermittent sleet and snow I was
somewhat grateful I was indoors all day! I found out later the walk
leader had had a nightmare of a time.

On Sunday, March 3, 2013 9:20:20 AM UTC, Phil Layton wrote:
On 03/03/2013 08:38, Dawlish wrote:

Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.

Yes I had that thought too. There was RASN a couple of days last year in
March but no snow here since 2008 when it snowed 4 days at the end of
the month.

Phil


I think that with the jet stream continuing to be so far south, we are never going to be free of the spring snow risk.

On Sunday, March 3, 2013 11:22:41 AM UTC, willie eckerslike wrote:
On Sunday, March 3, 2013 9:20:20 AM UTC, Phil Layton wrote:

On 03/03/2013 08:38, Dawlish wrote:



Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.



Yes I had that thought too. There was RASN a couple of days last year in

March but no snow here since 2008 when it snowed 4 days at the end of

the month.



Phil





I think that with the jet stream continuing to be so far south, we are never going to be free of the spring snow risk.

Nope. Very true. All hints of a jet stream movement north disappeared very quickly and never achieved anything like enough consistency for a forecast to herald warmth.

Truly foul charts for the start of spring. Hoping something warmer is signalled for mid-March, over the next few days.

On Mar 3, 8:38*am, Dawlish wrote:
Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.

in like a lamb, out like a lion?

On Sunday, March 3, 2013 2:56:45 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
On Mar 3, 8:38*am, Dawlish wrote:

Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.



in like a lamb, out like a lion?

Awful, awful charts to mid-March. Hard to forecast the wind direction with confidence, as the models won't settle on the region in which the blocking will occur, but the extension of Atlantic air over the UK will be short-lived and may not extend much further north than northern England, before an easterly flow re-establishes, perhaps eventually changing to a more northerly airstream, at 10 days. Whichever wind direction is the 10-day outcome, this is a cold and potentially snow-laden forecast, which most in the country would not like to achieve outcome in mid-March.

**An airstream with a source between north and east will bring more unseasonably cold weather with lower than average temperatures, sharp night frosts and possible outbreaks of snow to many areas of the UK, before and on 14th March 2013".

Horrible. Hated writing that and I hope I'm wrong, but that's what the ECM and the gfs have shown now for enough runs for me to have 80% confidence in the outcome, no matter how much I'm personally not looking forward to it.

On Monday, March 4, 2013 8:43:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 3, 2013 2:56:45 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:

On Mar 3, 8:38*am, Dawlish wrote:



Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.







in like a lamb, out like a lion?



Awful, awful charts to mid-March. Hard to forecast the wind direction with confidence, as the models won't settle on the region in which the blocking will occur, but the extension of Atlantic air over the UK will be short-lived and may not extend much further north than northern England, before an easterly flow re-establishes, perhaps eventually changing to a more northerly airstream, at 10 days. Whichever wind direction is the 10-day outcome, this is a cold and potentially snow-laden forecast, which most in the country would not like to achieve outcome in mid-March.



**An airstream with a source between north and east will bring more unseasonably cold weather with lower than average temperatures, sharp night frosts and possible outbreaks of snow to many areas of the UK, before and on 14th March 2013".



Horrible. Hated writing that and I hope I'm wrong, but that's what the ECM and the gfs have shown now for enough runs for me to have 80% confidence in the outcome, no matter how much I'm personally not looking forward to it..

I don't think I've *ever* seen a bigger difference between the gfs and the ECM operationals at 10 days. A bizarre difference. I would only lay very short odds that the gfs is a rank outlier and the threat of cold, mid-month, remains on the charts tomorrow..

In article ,
Dawlish writes:
I don't think I've *ever* seen a bigger difference between the gfs
and the ECM operationals at 10 days. A bizarre difference. I would
only lay very short odds that the gfs is a rank outlier and the threat
of cold, mid-month, remains on the charts tomorrow..

Even more amazing is the huge difference between ECMWF and UKMO
operational runs at just 6 days out.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

On Tuesday, March 5, 2013 8:59:08 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

Dawlish writes:

I don't think I've *ever* seen a bigger difference between the gfs

and the ECM operationals at 10 days. A bizarre difference. I would

only lay very short odds that the gfs is a rank outlier and the threat

of cold, mid-month, remains on the charts tomorrow..



Even more amazing is the huge difference between ECMWF and UKMO

operational runs at just 6 days out.

--

John Hall



"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."

Oscar Wilde

Yes. Gone this morning, to some extent and the operational at 10 days has fallen into cold again. The 06z was an enormous outlier.