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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Mar 11 19:51 Mar 19 17:27 Mar 27 09:27
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html No guarantees, the Greenland High meay see it off. We have a cyclone settled over us for the duration of Tim. Then the spell changes to anticyclonic. Look at the isobars on the Antarctic peninsula he http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View I commented on this set up when I first started using this series of charts. A "^" shape formed across the region between 60 to 80 degrees West. Pity I can't remember what it says. This loop goes out to Monday evening att he time of writing: http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...,brack3,brack4 Since that is when the present spell ends and there appears to be some multiplicity of centres just as the run ends, I feel confident we are in for a cold spell to end the winter with. Nothing much that looks like tornadoes on there though. I wonder if it is volcanic in nature. Something vaguely similar he http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...77622#bigim g |
#2
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Update time = Sat Mar 16 12:25:10 UTC 2013
14th to 16th March 2013 4.5 10:25:25 16.944 -98.245 28.8 GUERRERO, MEXICO 4.4 09:49:26 35.755 5.637 10.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA 3.5 08:51:33 59.987 -151.639 43.9 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA 4.4 08:05:45 44.517 148.989 61.5 KURIL ISLANDS 4.6 06:02:27 2.256 -84.502 31.9 OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 4.6 05:25:30 16.373 146.013 119.4 ANATAHAN REG., NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS 2.6 02:31:40 18.042 -65.411 25.0 PUERTO RICO REGION 4.8 02:17:15 -23.216 -178.286 513.6 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 4.2 02:08:12 28.736 128.252 161.9 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 4.1 00:34:18 46.131 27.124 12.0 ROMANIA 2.8 00:18:51 34.010 -117.180 6.4 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA 4.6 23:37:35 1.087 -85.098 37.7 OFF THE COAST OF ECUADOR 4.7 23:11:50 39.636 142.233 46.4 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.4 22:11:05 -8.490 127.435 35.0 EAST TIMOR REGION 4.4 22:09:41 67.628 142.108 10.0 NORTHEASTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA 4.1 19:07:21 54.410 -161.524 51.6 ALASKA PENINSULA 4.8 17:25:47 -5.224 152.346 56.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.8 16:48:52 30.938 138.395 388.4 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2.6 16:45:08 40.337 -124.667 18.0 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 3.2 14:45:03 56.140 -153.047 19.7 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.5 14:38:23 56.045 -152.998 25.0 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.9 13:59:03 33.917 -117.082 10.9 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.7 13:46:45 -3.203 142.864 17.5 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G. 2.6 10:54:16 68.179 -148.587 0.0 NORTHERN ALASKA 4.4 10:32:23 -31.250 -68.670 94.1 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA 4.9 09:46:46 -26.225 70.688 10.0 INDIAN OCEAN TRIPLE JUNCTION 4.2 06:31:07 -21.409 -68.773 102.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 2.5 06:07:04 38.774 -122.713 2.8 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.3 05:34:22 -3.094 -75.644 143.1 NORTHERN PERU 4.5 04:14:13 15.322 -104.387 42.0 OFF THE COAST OF MICHOACAN, MEXICO 3.3 03:05:02 38.646 -119.553 0.2 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 4.5 02:28:00 52.455 -132.126 14.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 4.5 01:32:43 -14.768 167.419 125.4 VANUATU 4.4 00:55:45 52.640 -131.834 3.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 4.3 00:46:58 52.684 -131.764 9.9 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 3.3 00:45:48 61.324 -150.761 58.5 SOUTHERN ALASKA 4.7 00:21:22 25.251 124.819 95.9 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN 4.5 00:05:01 52.484 -132.011 10.2 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 2.8 20:46:52 61.431 -149.996 45.4 SOUTHERN ALASKA 3.9 16:18:41 52.768 -132.692 17.8 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 4.7 15:50:48 -15.782 -71.537 8.1 SOUTHERN PERU 3.0 15:03:21 19.055 -64.965 28.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.7 09:48:47 -8.078 106.729 28.1 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA 2.8 09:12:52 38.811 -122.778 1.1 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 2.7 09:12:47 38.816 -122.785 1.1 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 3.0 09:10:59 38.825 -122.780 2.4 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 3.4 09:10:41 38.825 -122.798 4.1 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 3.9 09:10:09 38.827 -122.797 3.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.5 09:09:23 38.812 -122.786 2.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 2.5 07:21:37 18.061 -65.105 8.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.6 06:14:30 67.658 142.615 10.0 NORTHEASTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA 5.1 03:45:47 7.552 -82.791 7.2 SOUTH OF PANAMA Hold on to you hats, it's going to be a rough ride. It's been a while since we had a medium sized quake and that was early on the 14th of March. Most of the above take place on the Pacific coast of North America. I wonder if that is an hint? Nothing on any of the ocean charts I can see that looks promising before the 20th (and I wouldn't put money on that.) A weak set up on the NA EFS charts. And some mice on Met Office chart for the 19th (which looks like more multiple low magnitude quakes. But it does beg the question: "Where is the Bocking High from them?" Admittedly there is an extensive on down the Mid Atlantic Ridge from Greenland to just above the Azores. Maybe that is it? An injection of precipitation from Madagascar gets as far as 60 South before getting brushed off whilst another dark mass south west of South America crossed the ithsmus around the sme date. Apart from that things look more interesting actually on the Antarctic continent than offshore. The frontal system on: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ looks like it is encircling North America. Not that that means much to me... ....yet. |
#3
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Looks like something striking on Thursday night.
I missed this: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130318_rpts.html But I haven't missed this: Mar 19 17:27 http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html Follow this down South America and on the 21st it gets dark. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View By Saturday it is all over. But all over where? 2013/03/19 4.9 M. @ 11:32 -11.011 165.889 30.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS? 4.8 M. @ 10:12 -10.969 165.865 37.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS Or: 6.1 M. @ 03:29 -58.915 -24.410 31.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION? Or somewhere else entirely? |
#4
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![]() Weatherlawyer wrote: Looks like something striking on Thursday night. I missed this: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130318_rpts.html But I haven't missed this: Mar 19 17:27 http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html Follow this down South America and on the 21st it gets dark. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View By Saturday it is all over. But all over where? Looks like a major quake is now due, jusdging by the number of accidents such as this taking place: A boat carrying 160 people has capsized off Nigeria's coast, workers in charge of the rescue effort have said. So far only two people are known to have survived. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21858225 Dramatic rescue of 19 miners trapped by earthquake in Poland Nineteen miners were pulled alive from a coal mine in Poland after an earthquake trapped them 1,000 metres below the surface for seven hours. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...in-Poland.html Lots of little uns he https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=e...rp.egTwAVy9VM0 It is customary for poorly run businesses to be responsible for tragedies when the situation earthwide is likely to produce large tremors. I can only offer a guess why that is. Something not unrelated to buzzing in the brain box. |
#5
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On Mar 21, 5:08*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Looks like something striking on Thursday night. The http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...e=mslp-p...run today looks like it is loaded for bear. Nearly every other day on this run there looks like a tremendous earthshock going on. The first one is from this morning at 80 degrees West. When that crosses the continental division from South America to Antarctica, the quake or whatever will occur. That dissipates on Frday evening but the next day something from Madagascar is thrown into the mix and that hits Antarctica first thing Sunday. That flattens out overnight but by Monday things look black again. All points are affected by then. Warnings of the first tropical storm of the northern season will be apparent from Tuesday. Something could conceivably hit a Cat 1 on Wednesday. A depression will be short lived in the Pacific and a more extensive storm (or several smaller patterns) will develop on the opposite side of the globe. (hemisphere?) Early in the season for a Cat 1 though. Maybe it will just be tornadoes or multiple smaller quakes all over the place. (No real idea yet.) |
#6
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On Mar 21, 5:08*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Wednesday, 20 March 2013 16:12:48 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote: Weatherlawyer wrote: Looks like something striking on Thursday night. The http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...e=mslp-p...run today looks like it is loaded for bear. Nearly every other day on this run there looks like a tremendous earthshock going on. The first one is from this morning at 80 degrees West. When that crosses the continental division from South America to Antarctica, the quake or whatever will occur. That dissipates on Frday evening but the next day something from Madagascar is thrown into the mix and that hits Antarctica first thing Sunday. That flattens out overnight but by Monday things look black again. All points are affected by then. Warnings of the first tropical storm of the northern season will be apparent from Tuesday. Something could conceivably hit a Cat one on Wednesday. A depression will be short lived in the Pacific and a more extensive or several smaller patterns will develop on the opposite side of the globe (or hemisphere?) I believe that the way that the Southern Hemisphere Block works on the semipermanent Anticyclones in the Horus latitudes has had a fundamental affect on the charts that BOM are putting out at the moment. There is a remarkable amount of elongation on here initially today: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View Something of a storm-like nature brews up later in the day but... But anyway, thinkgs definitely look more clear after Thursday's quakes (leading me to believe that they will be interesting -at least.) Cyclosys looks to set in late Friday early Saturday wherever it occurs. Remnants of it will last into Sunday but then things get massively elongated. This is because the last two contiguous Oceanic Highs can break through (south of Africa and Australia) for a while. Last two? The High off western S. America never could. But you know what I mean. |
#7
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What are the chances of a severe quake around 55°S,20°W?
Both the Met Office and the BOM chart indicate three largish quakes on Sunday or thereabouts. There are three Lows on the Canadian EFS but they don’t hang around long, nor build into anything significant –but that may mean it is going to be a fair bit more than 80 degrees away from North America One is getting a little impatient with these stalling patterns. It looks like more snow after this coming little Australian spat. I wish I knew how to do a search for a large mag in that area of the South Atlantic (South Sandwich Islands region.) Something is bouncing between there and the Reykjane Ridge. Or was. I wouldn't be surprised if it was anywhwere north west of Australia too, neither. That Fijian Triangle keeps cropping up. |
#8
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On Thursday, March 28, 2013 4:53:22 PM UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if it was anywhwere north west of Australia too, neither. That Fijian Triangle keeps cropping up. I think you need to study the Wakefield Triangle.... ![]() |
#9
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On Mar 28, 4:53*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
What are the chances of a severe quake around 55°S,20°W? Both the Met Office and the BOM chart indicate three largish quakes on Sunday or thereabouts. There are three Lows on the Canadian EFS but they don’t hang around long, nor build into anything significant –but that may mean it is going to be a fair bit more than 80 degrees away from North America One is getting a little impatient with these stalling patterns. It looks like more snow after this coming little Australian spat. I wish I knew how to do a search for a large mag in that area of the South Atlantic (South Sandwich Islands region.) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...ic/results.php Comcat Search Beta - Results DATE_TIME LAT LON DEP MAG 2008-06-30 06:17 -58.2S. -22.0 7.0 1977-08-26 19:50 -59.4S. -20.5 7.1 I think this is only half the region. I bleieve it has only looked south of the region. The older server set up was a lot easier to understand. And anyway I don't have charts going back to then, it IS unlikely we had all that much snow for those dates though. I am pretty sure I would have remembered. |
#10
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On Mar 28, 5:30*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Mar 28, 4:53*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote: What are the chances of a severe quake around 55°S,20°W? Both the Met Office and the BOM chart indicate three largish quakes on Sunday or thereabouts. There are three Lows on the Canadian EFS but they don’t hang around long, nor build into anything significant –but that may mean it is going to be a fair bit more than 80 degrees away from North America One is getting a little impatient with these stalling patterns. It looks like more snow after this coming little Australian spat. I wish I knew how to do a search for a large mag in that area of the South Atlantic (South Sandwich Islands region.) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...ic/results.php Comcat Search Beta - Results DATE_TIME * * * * * * * * * LAT * * *LON * * * * *DEP * MAG 2008-06-30 *06:17 * * * -58.2S. * * * * *-22.0 *7.0 1977-08-26 *19:50 * * * -59.4S. * * * * *-20.5 *7.1 I think this is only half the region. I bleieve it has only looked south of the region. The older server set up was a lot easier to understand. And anyway I don't have charts going back to then, it IS unlikely we had all that much snow for those dates though. I am pretty sure I would have remembered. Looks like another bust. Yet it has to occur that there is a large mag in the system, just not a clearly forecastable one. Pity. New spell soon. Similar but different: Mar 27 09:27 Apr 3 04:37 A broken spell from Midnight Monday (April 1st) but don't be fooled. 4:40 is a close anticyclone spell but then so is a thundery spell. You get lots of Lows and Highs on the scale found on most of the charts I use in a thunder spell: forecast for: 2013-04-02 at: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem.../cartes_e.html An anticyclone spell won't have so many but it is on the half our so it will look like it had been thrown in the fire. We'll see. |
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