ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend
over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa.
Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for
two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon,
but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really
struggling in a week or two :-(

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 16/03/13 08:25, Eskimo Will wrote:
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air
at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be
really struggling in a week or two :-(

Will

I guess this wasn't a good time to take on an allotment then?

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 16/03/13 08:25, Eskimo Will wrote:
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air
at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be
really struggling in a week or two :-(

Will

I guess this wasn't a good time to take on an allotment then?

Adam you may wish to consider fleecing it or using glass to warm up the
soil. Soil temperatures are very low at present. Mine are still just 3-4C at
30cm and lower at times near the surface. Not even the grass is growing yet.
Haven't sown a single seed so far (normally at least have my parsnips in by
now which will germinate at 5C). Will put some veg seeds in a cloche next
week and pray. Outside sowing will not start until mid-April or even May at
this rate and could be another very bad year if we get a cloudy cool and wet
summer again. YMMV of course! I'm also investing in a big greenhouse which I
reckon will bear fruit (literally!) in the next few years.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at
850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really
struggling in a week or two :-(


Oh for heaven's sake, enough is enough!

Meteorologically interesting of course but that would be
late March, it's been cold for so long, where's spring??
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Saturday, March 16, 2013 8:52:49 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message

...

ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next

weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at

850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles

quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground

coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern

England, Scotland?

Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North

Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really

struggling in a week or two :-(





Oh for heaven's sake, enough is enough!



Meteorologically interesting of course but that would be

late March, it's been cold for so long, where's spring??

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Not there at all Col. There's been nothing to suggest it and all we can be hopeful for is a nicer day, or two this week.

Will is ramping, as he always does, the possibility of the most extreme snow conditions he can. We've had so many posts this and in other winters from him about Dartmoor (and other) blizzards, that I think we all know it's silly, but he'll get it right once - the law of averages will kick in.

On 16/03/2013 08:52, Col wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at
850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really
struggling in a week or two :-(


Oh for heaven's sake, enough is enough!

Meteorologically interesting of course but that would be
late March, it's been cold for so long, where's spring??


Is the jetstream meandering so much that there's less difference in
temps between the poles and the tropics?

I hope that the forecast changes, as the spring steam gala is next
weekend on the severn valley railway.

And of course I want to open my windows! LOL

Joe
Wolverhampton.

On 16/03/2013 08:25, Eskimo Will wrote:
ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next
weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air
at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles
quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground
coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern
England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be
really struggling in a week or two :-(

Will

Yes, it does look bad for the farmers. The arable farmers need warmer
temperatures while the livestock farmers need less precipitation. Both
look like losing out.:-(

--
Howard Neil

Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, March 16, 2013 8:52:49 AM UTC, Col wrote:

Oh for heaven's sake, enough is enough!



Meteorologically interesting of course but that would be

late March, it's been cold for so long, where's spring??

Not there at all Col. There's been nothing to suggest it and all we
can be hopeful for is a nicer day, or two this week.

Will is ramping, as he always does, the possibility of the most
extreme snow conditions he can. We've had so many posts this and in
other winters from him about Dartmoor (and other) blizzards, that I
think we all know it's silly, but he'll get it right once - the law
of averages will kick in.

There's a lot of talk on TWO about snow and cold, and it can't all be
'ramping'. Besides Will only ever mentioned the 'possibility' of blizzards,
it wasn't a forecast as such.

Hoping for not too bad a day here near the centre of the low where
conditions can sometimes be reasonable. However rain only just
cleared but starting to brighten up a touch. Temp a chilly 3.2°C.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 16/03/2013 08:37, Eskimo Will wrote:
Adam you may wish to consider fleecing it or using glass to warm up the
soil. Soil temperatures are very low at present. Mine are still just
3-4C at 30cm and lower at times near the surface. Not even the grass is
growing yet. Haven't sown a single seed so far (normally at least have
my parsnips in by now which will germinate at 5C). Will put some veg
seeds in a cloche next week and pray. Outside sowing will not start
until mid-April or even May at this rate and could be another very bad
year if we get a cloudy cool and wet summer again.

My 30 cm soil temperature overtook the 100 cm temperature on the 9th
reaching a maximum of 9.2°C, but since then a run of cold nights has
caused it to fall back.

Currently:
30 cm = 7.1°C
100 cm = 8.8°C.

A minimum air temperature of -3.6°C on the 14th making it easily the
coldest night of the winter/spring. I thought my nectarine tree was
going to cop it as it has started budding. Seems to be OK so I've got
away with it.

--
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On 16/03/2013 08:37, Eskimo Will wrote:

snip! I'm
also investing in a big greenhouse which I reckon will bear fruit
(literally!) in the next few years.

Will

I thought you were emigrating soon - to Manchester or thereabouts.....