In article ,
Teignmouth writes:
Joe, I seem to remember reading in Philip Eden's 1994
Weatherwise (it's a shame he doesn't post here anymore), the
reason why the Jet Stream typicaly meanders in early spring is
because the contrast in temperature between the Atlantic &
Continental Europe is at its minimum.

Once Continental Europe starts to warm up later in spring, the
Atlantic is still relatively cool & takes longer to warm up, this
creates a bigger temperature contrast heralding the return of the
Westerlies.

Surely it's precisely the reverse? In late winter / early spring the
temperature difference between Atlantic and continental Eurasia is at
its maximum, but then the land warms up much more quickly than the sea.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Dawlish writes:
Will is ramping, as he always does, the possibility of the most
extreme snow conditions he can.
snip

There's considerable support from the Met Office:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Saturday 30 Mar 2013:Many areas
fine on Thursday, though a few snow showers possible to the northeast.
Turning much more unsettled towards the southwest later Thursday, with
cloudy, wet and windy conditions then spreading slowly northeastwards on
Friday into central parts of the UK, whilst turning increasingly to
snow. These conditions continue northwards through the weekend, risk
then of significant snow over central and northern areas, though the far
northeast may remain brighter, with just occasional snow showers.
Generally cold with overnight frost, though temperatures perhaps
returning nearer normal in the south."

OK, they don't actually use the "b" word, but the set-up suggests that
any snow in northern parts next weekend would be accompanied by a strong
easterly or north-easterly.

Yes could be quite serious John, especially for the hill farmers. Continued
support from 12Z ECM and also UKMO coming on board. Also GFS and JMA.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 16/03/2013 19:51, Eskimo Will wrote:

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Dawlish writes:
Will is ramping, as he always does, the possibility of the most
extreme snow conditions he can.
snip

There's considerable support from the Met Office:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Saturday 30 Mar 2013:Many areas
fine on Thursday, though a few snow showers possible to the northeast.
Turning much more unsettled towards the southwest later Thursday, with
cloudy, wet and windy conditions then spreading slowly northeastwards on
Friday into central parts of the UK, whilst turning increasingly to
snow. These conditions continue northwards through the weekend, risk
then of significant snow over central and northern areas, though the far
northeast may remain brighter, with just occasional snow showers.
Generally cold with overnight frost, though temperatures perhaps
returning nearer normal in the south."

OK, they don't actually use the "b" word, but the set-up suggests that
any snow in northern parts next weekend would be accompanied by a strong
easterly or north-easterly.

Yes could be quite serious John, especially for the hill farmers.
Continued support from 12Z ECM and also UKMO coming on board. Also GFS
and JMA.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Never mind next weekend, this afternoon we had about 10mm of snow. This
was enough to cover the sheep food (grass) and so I brought them into
the shed.

--
Howard Neil

On Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:25:10 -0000, "Eskimo Will"
wrote:

ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend
over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa.
Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for
two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon,
but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland?
Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North
Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really
struggling in a week or two :-(

Well here we are, "next weekend", and who's a clever Eskimo, then?

--
Dave
Fareham
[perishing cold but dry]

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:36:25 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:25:10 -0000, "Eskimo Will"

wrote:



ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend

over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa.

Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for

two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon,

but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland?

Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North

Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really

struggling in a week or two :-(



Well here we are, "next weekend", and who's a clever Eskimo, then?



--

Dave

Fareham

[perishing cold but dry]

Just as I said. Say it enough and you're bound to be right once in a while.

A bit like claiming you have an 80% success rate with your forecasts, when in fact it only relates to approx 42 days of the year.

I'll keep reminding you of the formula, in case you've forgotten, until you stop trying to take the moral high ground over making a forecast.

Approx 1 forecast a week with an 80% success rate = 41.6 days a year (52 x 80%).

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 7:35:37 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:36:25 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote: On Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:25:10 -0000, "Eskimo Will" wrote: ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland? Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really struggling in a week or two :-( Well here we are, "next weekend", and who's a clever Eskimo, then? -- Dave Fareham [perishing cold but dry] Just as I said. Say it enough and you're bound to be right once in a while.

Always so keen to rubbish and attack those who actually work or have worked in Meteorology.

In the interest of balance lets have a look at your line of work:

Paul Garvey Ofsted Consultant

A "foul" job whose purpose is to screw money out of cash strapped school budgets in order to distort Ofsted results.

Some of these "Ofsted consultants" are charging up to £800 a day for such services.
Nice article last week from the Independent highlighting this "foul" practice of distortion of Ofsted results.

Needs to be stopped IMHO.

http://ind.pn/10HdL9x

"We're all in this together"

Not if you are a banker or an Ofstead Consultant it would apppear.

Sean

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 8:34:56 PM UTC, Seany McD wrote:
On Saturday, March 23, 2013 7:35:37 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:36:25 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote: On Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:25:10 -0000, "Eskimo Will" wrote: ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland? Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really struggling in a week or two :-( Well here we are, "next weekend", and who's a clever Eskimo, then? -- Dave Fareham [perishing cold but dry] Just as I said. Say it enough and you're bound to be right once in a while.



Always so keen to rubbish and attack those who actually work or have worked in Meteorology.

Only when they say things about which they should know better. My line of work ensures a decent education for yours and others' children. What on earth it's got to do with uk.sci.weather, oh anonymous nutbar, only you could know.

On Sunday, March 24, 2013 4:02:37 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, March 23, 2013 8:34:56 PM UTC, Seany McD wrote: On Saturday, March 23, 2013 7:35:37 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:36:25 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote: On Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:25:10 -0000, "Eskimo Will" wrote: ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland? Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really struggling in a week or two :-( Well here we are, "next weekend", and who's a clever Eskimo, then? -- Dave Fareham [perishing cold but dry] Just as I said. Say it enough and you're bound to be right once in a while. Always so keen to rubbish and attack those who actually work or have worked in Meteorology. Only when they say things about which they should know better. My line of work ensures a decent education for yours and others' children. What on earth it's got to do with uk.sci.weather, oh anonymous nutbar, only you could know.

As snipped out my origional post,putting it back in my reply to you

"In the interest of balance lets have a look at your line of work:

Paul Garvey Ofsted Consultant

A "foul" job whose purpose is to screw money out of cash strapped school budgets in order to distort Ofsted results.

Some of these "Ofsted consultants" are charging up to £800 a day for such services.
Nice article last week from the Independent highlighting this "foul" practice of distortion of Ofsted results.

Needs to be stopped IMHO.

http://ind.pn/10HdL9x"

Your line of work Paul Garvey as an Ofsted Consultant ensures that money is taken from school budgets to prepare for Ofsted inspections.

This is taking money away from the budget which might be spent on childrens books etc.

There is no need, requirement or justification for them.

The process is distorting genuine Ofstead inspections.

Schools should be inspected as thay are found, read the article and address the issue that i have raised .

Why resort to abuse? Nutbar?
Engage in a debate with me.

In what way does your work ensure my children recieve a decent education?

I do not want my children’s school spending exorbitant fees on Ofsted consultants nor i suspect would a large majority of parents.

More Teachers - More Books - Not more consultants and their huge fees!

Thanks.
Sean

On Sunday, March 24, 2013 4:53:57 PM UTC, Seany McD wrote:
On Sunday, March 24, 2013 4:02:37 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 8:34:56 PM UTC, Seany McD wrote: On Saturday, March 23, 2013 7:35:37 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:36:25 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote: On Sat, 16 Mar 2013 08:25:10 -0000, "Eskimo Will" wrote: ECMWF and now GFS quite bullish about possibility of blizzards next weekend over northern England as fronts push north into -5C to -10C air at 850 hPa. Strong easterly winds. UKMO much less keen but ECM ensembles quite solid for two runs now. Interesting mild/very cold battleground coming up I reckon, but where will it be? Southern England, northern England, Scotland? Gobsmacking too how GFS keeps the polar jet running way south into North Africa right into April, not good news for our farmers who could be really struggling in a week or two :-( Well here we are, "next weekend", and who's a clever Eskimo, then? -- Dave Fareham [perishing cold but dry] Just as I said. Say it enough and you're bound to be right once in a while. Always so keen to rubbish and attack those who actually work or have worked in Meteorology. Only when they say things about which they should know better. My line of work ensures a decent education for yours and others' children. What on earth it's got to do with uk.sci.weather, oh anonymous nutbar, only you could know.



As snipped out my origional post,putting it back in my reply to you



"In the interest of balance lets have a look at your line of work:



Paul Garvey Ofsted Consultant



A "foul" job whose purpose is to screw money out of cash strapped school budgets in order to distort Ofsted results.



Some of these "Ofsted consultants" are charging up to £800 a day for such services.

Nice article last week from the Independent highlighting this "foul" practice of distortion of Ofsted results.



Needs to be stopped IMHO.



http://ind.pn/10HdL9x"



Your line of work Paul Garvey as an Ofsted Consultant ensures that money is taken from school budgets to prepare for Ofsted inspections.



This is taking money away from the budget which might be spent on childrens books etc.



There is no need, requirement or justification for them.



The process is distorting genuine Ofstead inspections.



Schools should be inspected as thay are found, read the article and address the issue that i have raised .



Why resort to abuse? Nutbar?

Engage in a debate with me.



In what way does your work ensure my children recieve a decent education?



I do not want my children’s school spending exorbitant fees on Ofsted consultants nor i suspect would a large majority of parents.



More Teachers - More Books - Not more consultants and their huge fees!



Thanks.

Sean

I doubt there is a parent in the country that would be happy with their children receiving an education that was less than good. If you would be happy with that; good for you.

I am enormously proud of what I do for schools and every single school I have either inspected, or supported, testifies to the excellence of that work.. *Every single one* oh anonymous one. Value for money in support is paramount and that value for money is determined by the school, not by people with a dreadfully uninformed opinion and a dislike of someone - like you.

Now why not tell the newsgroup what you do you do for a living, so we can all have an opinion on it; or do you feel that complete anonymity is a better way forward?

Back to the weather. What were we saying about someone being certain to be correct sometimes when they forecast blizzards at every possible sniff of snow on the charts?

Thanks.
Paul