On 23/03/13 22:13, willie eckerslike wrote:
On Saturday, March 23, 2013 10:08:10 PM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 23/03/13 19:27, willie eckerslike wrote:

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:45:40 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Saturday, 23 March 2013 18:29:12 UTC, willie eckerslike wrote:





Maybe now, people will question the precise data being put into these long range models, before accepting the output as gospel?







Blimey is someone slightly aggreeing with me after all these years?



I have not wholly disagreed with you throughout the years, but I still believe that a proportion of the warming over the last 60 years is due to greenhouse effects.



I just do not believe that until the computer program can be run in reverse and produce a very similar graph to the past, complete with the slight cooling between 1940 and 1980, that any predictions of the future climate can be relied upon.





Global climate models have been run on the past climate and can

reproduce the overall trend including the cooling between 1940 and 1960.

But what about the cooling between 1960 and 1980?

I misread the year range, I should have said 1940-1980.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/clim...termediate.htm

On Saturday, 23 March 2013 23:00:51 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 23/03/13 22:13, willie eckerslike wrote:

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 10:08:10 PM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:

On 23/03/13 19:27, willie eckerslike wrote:



On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:45:40 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:



On Saturday, 23 March 2013 18:29:12 UTC, willie eckerslike wrote:











Maybe now, people will question the precise data being put into these long range models, before accepting the output as gospel?















Blimey is someone slightly aggreeing with me after all these years?







I have not wholly disagreed with you throughout the years, but I still believe that a proportion of the warming over the last 60 years is due to greenhouse effects.







I just do not believe that until the computer program can be run in reverse and produce a very similar graph to the past, complete with the slight cooling between 1940 and 1980, that any predictions of the future climate can be relied upon.











Global climate models have been run on the past climate and can



reproduce the overall trend including the cooling between 1940 and 1960.



But what about the cooling between 1960 and 1980?



I misread the year range, I should have said 1940-1980.



http://www.skepticalscience.com/clim...termediate.htm

Adam: I truly believe you are employed by some green lobby organisation, prove me otherwise.

On Sat, 23 Mar 2013 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT)
Lawrence13 wrote:



Adam: I truly believe you are employed by some green lobby
organisation, prove me otherwise.

Lawrence: I truly believe you are employed by some right-wing
no-think-tank; prove me otherwise.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
Carlos Seixas, Sonata nº 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXox7vonfEg
And for something completely different, Cumberland Gap:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsU-LTwx8Co

On Sat, 23 Mar 2013 15:13:25 -0700 (PDT)
willie eckerslike wrote:


Global climate models have been run on the past climate and can

reproduce the overall trend including the cooling between 1940 and
1960.

But what about the cooling between 1960 and 1980?

There wasn't any; temperatures rose by 0.12C (rolling 11-year mean).
Temperature rise started around 1970 having flat-lined during the 60s
after a little warming in the 50s.

The dip in temperatures in the 40s may be associated with the slow-down
in CO2 increase following the Great Depression which included a
period of decline during 1940-45.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
Carlos Seixas, Sonata nº 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXox7vonfEg
And for something completely different, Cumberland Gap:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsU-LTwx8Co

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 6:18:48 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Saturday, 23 March 2013 17:42:11 UTC, willie eckerslike wrote:

On Saturday, March 23, 2013 1:28:46 PM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:



On 23/03/13 09:11, willie eckerslike wrote:







On Saturday, March 23, 2013 8:24:37 AM UTC, Adam Lea wrote:







On 22/03/13 22:11, Lawrence13 wrote:















I'm sitting here typing in SE London with two pullovers on...































And this time last year I was happily wandering around outside in a T















shirt. Your point being?















Why is everyone getting so worked up about this? Have we never experienced snow in March before?















I have photos somewhere of 4 inches of snow in my garden almost covering the flowering tulips. That must have been well into April. The photos were taken sometime in the 1990s but I don't remember the whole country descending into a panic then.















Neither do I remember too much panic when snow covered the cricket pitch in Buxton on 2nd June 1975 and the midday temp at Colchester was 2C.















Maybe you are all watching too many news bulletins from the hysterical TV presenters, and these have rotted the memory?















Missing the point. It is not about snow it is about the duration of the







cold. How long in those examples you give did the cold and snow last







before it got milder again? I can tell you June 1975 was no more than a







freak few days then immediately followed by a heatwave for starters. How







often at this time of year do you get 3+ weeks of SUSTAINED well below







average temperatures with no milder interludes right down to the south







coast and beyond. Can't be very often if you have to go back to 1987 and







then 1963 to find colder Marches.







1986 was a cold February, a below average March, and followed by an almost as cold April.







That is pretty sustained, and May was nothing to write home about either.

On Sunday, March 24, 2013 7:48:37 AM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Sat, 23 Mar 2013 15:13:25 -0700 (PDT)

willie eckerslike wrote:





Global climate models have been run on the past climate and can



reproduce the overall trend including the cooling between 1940 and

1960.



But what about the cooling between 1960 and 1980?



There wasn't any;

Are you saying this graph is wrong?

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/te...e/HadCRUT4.png

It looks like a cooling to me.

And how do you account for the depression of the post WW1 era, and a steady rise in temperatures until the outbreak of WW2 on that graph?

In article ,
Mystic Piers writes:
so says the Canada Free Press

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/53863

I think the warming in at least the British climate in recent decades is
well shown by the annual CET temperature. If you look at the figures for
each decade as given on Philip Eden's site at

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

you find:

Decade Years 10C Years 10C or above
1971-80 8 2
1081-90 7 3
1991-2000 4 6
2001-10 2 8

It's true that 2010 was an unusually cold year (mainly due to a cold
January and February and a very cold December) and that 2012 was also
cold, but that's far too small a sample to draw any conclusions from. In
any case 2011 was a very warm year, second only to 2006 since 1971.
--
John Hall
"Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable
of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it."
Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist

On Sunday, March 24, 2013 9:46:35 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

Mystic Piers writes:

so says the Canada Free Press



http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/53863



I think the warming in at least the British climate in recent decades is

well shown by the annual CET temperature. If you look at the figures for

each decade as given on Philip Eden's site at



http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm



you find:



Decade Years 10C Years 10C or above

1971-80 8 2

1081-90 7 3

1991-2000 4 6

2001-10 2 8



It's true that 2010 was an unusually cold year (mainly due to a cold

January and February and a very cold December) and that 2012 was also

cold, but that's far too small a sample to draw any conclusions from. In

any case 2011 was a very warm year, second only to 2006 since 1971.

--

John Hall

"Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable

of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it."

Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist

A decadal analysis shows UK warming very well. I used to describe it as UKGW - the UK will warm, as the rest of the planet is, but in it's own little way.

Once March is complete, I'll be reposting some CET graphs, which I haven't posted for a while.

On Friday I provisionally updated them with an estimated March CET, and what it showed was the 5yr, 10yr & 20yr moving average have all been falling for about the past 5 years. What's also interesting is the 30yr moving average has also peaked & started to fall slightly recently, the 50yr & 100yr moving average have flattened out.

Also, there's another graph I have which shows the 10 yr moving average for each season, with the most interesting season being that of Winter which has turned much colder in the past 5 years.

I will post links to both graphs early in April.

On Sunday, 24 March 2013 16:09:32 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 24, 2013 9:46:35 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:

In article ,



Mystic Piers writes:



so says the Canada Free Press







http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/53863







I think the warming in at least the British climate in recent decades is



well shown by the annual CET temperature. If you look at the figures for



each decade as given on Philip Eden's site at







http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm







you find:







Decade Years 10C Years 10C or above



1971-80 8 2



1081-90 7 3



1991-2000 4 6



2001-10 2 8







It's true that 2010 was an unusually cold year (mainly due to a cold



January and February and a very cold December) and that 2012 was also



cold, but that's far too small a sample to draw any conclusions from. In



any case 2011 was a very warm year, second only to 2006 since 1971.



--



John Hall



"Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable



of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it."



Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist



A decadal analysis shows UK warming very well. I used to describe it as UKGW - the UK will warm, as the rest of the planet is, but in it's own little way.

Impressed by Adams credentials and you're in there like a rat up a drainpipe.

Anyway I did ask you and others to make a prediction for the coming summer, so far, for all your confidence in the 'UKGW' warming; you still haven't given your opinion. So stop bathing and ingratiating yourself in the academic achievements of others you would like to be associated with and make a bloody forecast.