**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

The models have finally settled enough for me to be 80% confident of this forecast.

**Forecast. At T+240 on 20th Nov, high pressure to our west will have halted the zonal train. It will lead to increased meridionality in the jet and the UK will be receiving cooler, polar maritime, or perhaps maritime Arctic air, dependent of the exact orientation of the Atlantic high pressure. Fronts sinking south across the country will bring, perhaps heavy, snow to upland areas in Scotland and to higher hills in England. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear at night.**

Should cheer up the coldies. *))

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

Piers Corbyn knew about this months ago. His disciples invested in winter tyres when they were cheaper in the summer

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

"Jim Cannon" wrote in message
...

Piers Corbyn knew about this months ago. His disciples invested in winter
tyres when they were cheaper in the summer
===================================

Guess what? So did many thousands of other people who've never heard of WA.
They know that all-season tyres are dramatically better than summer tyres in
snow and cold road conditions generally, and with no real drawbacks for
year-round UK use. Since the average UK winter tends to have at least a few
periods of snow and ice for many, the prudent option is to fit all-seasons.
(Winters, at least by some definitions, are tyres with metal studs and only
needed in eg Scandanavia. All-seasons, as the name suggests, are
all-rounders.)

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

On Sunday, November 10, 2013 7:56:31 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
The models have finally settled enough for me to be 80% confident of this forecast.



**Forecast. At T+240 on 20th Nov, high pressure to our west will have halted the zonal train. It will lead to increased meridionality in the jet and the UK will be receiving cooler, polar maritime, or perhaps maritime Arctic air..."

========

.... or topical maritime air depending on the progression of the long wave pattern. *At* T+240 the 12UTC EC shows just that with trough to the west, not ridge, so I don't get this notion that the models have settled sufficiently to forecast an individual day. While GFS op has steadied the last three runs of ECMWF have indicated very different temperatures on 19th/20th, and the ensemble spread is wide. But certainly the meridional pattern - that we have been forecasting for a good while, incidentally - is emerging, and colder outbreaks becoming more likely and more frequent as the zonality ends; and 19th/20th is more probably going to be on the colder side of average.

Stephen.

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

On Sunday, November 10, 2013 8:27:28 PM UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
Piers Corbyn knew about this months ago. ...

===

He knew winter was coming?

Stephen.

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

On Sunday, 10 November 2013 20:27:28 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
Piers Corbyn knew about this months ago. His disciples invested in winter tyres when they were cheaper in the summer

Erm... sorry Jim mate bit only weeks ago you were on about a westerly winter

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

On Sunday, 10 November 2013 21:04:15 UTC, General wrote:
"Jim Cannon" wrote in message

...



Piers Corbyn knew about this months ago. His disciples invested in winter

tyres when they were cheaper in the summer

===================================



Guess what? So did many thousands of other people who've never heard of WA.

They know that all-season tyres are dramatically better than summer tyres in

snow and cold road conditions generally, and with no real drawbacks for

year-round UK use. Since the average UK winter tends to have at least a few

periods of snow and ice for many, the prudent option is to fit all-seasons.

(Winters, at least by some definitions, are tyres with metal studs and only

needed in eg Scandanavia. All-seasons, as the name suggests, are

all-rounders.)

Most ordinary income people don't have the luxury to chop and change tyres as over half of their income goes to pay for the feckless and AGW.

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Sunday, November 10, 2013 8:27:28 PM UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
Piers Corbyn knew about this months ago. ...

===

He knew winter was coming?

Stephen.
-------------------------------
Must be getting better then ;-)
Dave

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

On Sun, 10 Nov 2013 11:56:31 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:
**Forecast. At T+240 on 20th Nov, high pressure to our west will
have halted the zonal train. It will lead to increased meridionality
in the jet

I may be being pedantic, but I think it is the increased
meridionality in the jet that will be the cause of the high pressure
to the west - not vice versa.

--
Freddie
Castle Pulverbatch
Shropshire
221m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports

**Forecast, cooler at T+240 on 20/11/2013. Atlantic high pressure**
 

On Sunday, November 10, 2013 11:21:32 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Sunday, November 10, 2013 7:56:31 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

The models have finally settled enough for me to be 80% confident of this forecast.







**Forecast. At T+240 on 20th Nov, high pressure to our west will have halted the zonal train. It will lead to increased meridionality in the jet and the UK will be receiving cooler, polar maritime, or perhaps maritime Arctic air..."



========



... or topical maritime air depending on the progression of the long wave pattern.

Poosibly.

*At* T+240 the 12UTC EC shows just that with trough to the west, not ridge, so I don't get this notion that the models have settled sufficiently to forecast an individual day.

You didn't see high pressure ridging North in the mid Atlantic on yesterday's charts? On past records, I have a 20% chance of being wrong and I may be on this one. If I am, I will always come back and say I am and say what changed. Forecasting at 10 days to an individual day is difficult and actually not usually possible. If I am wrong on this one, fair enough, but I have been right on almost a hundred individual days now and wrong on only about 25. Perhaps you should use my technique?

While GFS op has steadied the last three runs of ECMWF have indicated very different temperatures on 19th/20th, and the ensemble spread is wide.......

The ensemble spread is *always* wide at a distance of 10 days.

But certainly the meridional pattern - that we....

Forgive me asking, but "we" being? You aren't making "we" up, I am sure, but what is a "good while" and how do we (the people in this newsgroup) check that?

.......have been forecasting for a good while, incidentally - is emerging.......

With the models as they have been for the last week, "you" should have been! *)) I'm sure you've read my posts too and I've been talking the same way; it has just not been possible to forecast with confidence to an individual day.

.........and colder outbreaks becoming more likely and more frequent as the zonality ends; and 19th/20th is more probably going to be on the colder side of average.

Good that we agree on this one; but I'd put the probability at 80%. Do come back and judge the forecast at outcome. I've noticed that people tend to do that on the times when I'm wrong.........*))

Stephen.